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| GGG managers are SunkenCiv, StayAt HomeMother & Ernest_at_the_Beach | |
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Thanks SeekAndFind. |
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Posted on 10/19/2012 12:02:16 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Right now the RCP Averages are showing an odd situation. Mitt Romney leads nationally by one point, but trails in the Electoral College by a 294-244 count. Moreover, electoral vote number 270 (right now, Wisconsin) favors President Obama by a two-point margin.
While I believe that an electoral vote/popular vote disconnect of this magnitude is unlikely, it certainly is possible that we’ll see another split between the two, especially if the popular vote is decided by less than a point. If that happens, Americans will once again receive a civics lesson in how presidents are really chosen.
In particular, we’ll be reminded of the four canonical instances where the electoral vote and popular vote went to different candidates: 1824, 1876, 1888, and 2000. These are fairly well known to political junkies.
Far less well-known is that we should probably include a fifth such split: 1960.
Now, just to be clear, the argument that Richard Nixon should be credited with a popular vote win in 1960 doesn’t rest on theories about dead people voting in Chicago or cows voting in Texas. It does rest on a fuller understanding of Southern voting history.
Before going further, credit where credit is due. This analysis isn’t something I discovered on my own. Instead, it derives from a pair of articles published in PS: Political Science and Politics. The first, authored by University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign professor Brian Gaines, appeared in the March 2001 edition of that journal. The second, by George Mason University professor Gordon Tullock, appeared in the January 2004 edition. Even back in 1960, Congressional Quarterly concluded that it was Nixon, not Kennedy, who had won the popular vote, for the reasons that follow.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
I believe about 100,000 dead people came to his aid and pushed him over the top. Don't forget: he was a democrat!
Flawed assumption. We have 2 to 3 daily polls on the popular vote being done daily. State polls are far less frequent and more difficult to do. The electoral maps are based on the most current state by state data. The state by state data can lag by weeks.
The daily polls are indicating that the electoral vote map is about to change toward Romney.
Don’t harsh my mellow, dude.
I’d get my dog to vote for Romney, but he doesn’t have a driver’s license, and Georgia requires voter ID. Maybe I’ll take him to another state, where some lib judge has struck down voter ID, and let him vote. He certainly has more right than an illegal alien!
Lots of wishfull thinking type articles written by dems today. Obama is going to loose in a landslide - I told my husband last night that I think Romney wil get 365 electoral college votes and I am sticking with it!!!
RE: I believe about 100,000 dead people came to his aid and pushed him over the top.
Nixon losing might have been a blessing in disguise for him.
He might have been Lee Harvey Oswald’s target in Dallas instead of JFK...
“Don’t buy a single vote more than necessary. I’ll be damned if I’m going to pay for a landslide. “ Joseph Kennedy
In the 1997 World Series, Cleveland won games two, four, and six by 5, 7, and 3 points respectively. Florida won games one, three, five, and seven by 3, 3, 1, and 1 points respectively. Florida appropriately won the Series because they won more games than Cleveland, even though Cleveland outscored Florida by 44 to 37 overall. Games and elections have rules, and no sensible person would argue with an outcome that follows the rules.
Unfortunately, liberals are neither sensible nor decent; they want the rules rewritten after the fact. I expect them to riot if they win the popular vote but lose the election (they'll riot over any type of loss, but the popular vote excuse will be like the trashy movie in Libya, their justification for the violence that thugs initiate simply because they are thugs). Conversely, if they lose the popular vote but win the election, the split outcome will not concern them at all - hypocrites. Personally, I find the popular vote an interesting footnote to history, but I do not want that statistic considered at all in deciding the election.
John Fitzgerald Kennedy
Electoral Votes: 303
Pop. Vote: 34,227,096 (49.7%)
Richard M. Nixon
Electoral Votes: 219
Pop. Vote: 34,107,646 (49.5%)
Harry F. Byrd
Electoral Votes: PR: 15; VP: 14 / 1
Pop. Vote: 116,248 (0.2%)
Kennedy won Illinois by less than 9,000 votes out of 4.75 million cast, or a margin of 0.2%. However, Nixon carried 92 of the state’s 101 counties, and Kennedy’s victory in Illinois came from the city of Chicago, where Mayor Richard Daley held back much of Chicago’s vote until the late morning hours of November 9.
The efforts of Daley and the powerful Chicago Democratic organization gave Kennedy an extraordinary Cook County victory margin of 450,000 votes—more than 10% of Chicago’s 1960 population of 3.55 million, although Cook County also included many suburbs outside of Chicago’s borders—thus barely overcoming the heavy Republican vote in the rest of Illinois.
I have a small condo in Florida.
If I were not an honest man, I’d be registered in both Florida AND Georgia. And my wife, too.
That’s around the number I saw as well. Just before the 1980 election there was a documentary I saw that had two former democrat workers from Texas relating how they helped stuff at least a couple hundred thousand votes in Texas alone, working for the Johnson machine. They also knew that at least 100K votes were stuffed in Cook County IL, which was acknowledged by my late FIL who was a Teamsters member in IL at the time. The two Texas guys marveled at the fact that they didn’t have time to do it right so they forged the ballot rolls in alphabetical order; they laughed and asked “who votes in alphabetical order?”. Who indeed, besides the dead, illegals, cartoon characters, pets, and fictitious democrat party voters. Nixon won in 1960 but it was known that he refused to contest the election rather than plunge the nation into a Consitutional crisis. The JFK/Camelot myth was born of a stolen election.
Legally, YES, but thanks to Chicago's criminal underworld kingpin, Sam MoMo Giancana, in concert with JFK's criminal father, and all of the illegal Mexican voters, in south Texas, AKA LBJ voters, the final results included over 100,000 dead voters he was declared the Winner.. This is hardly news, maybe to this generation, but it was laughed at when it happened.. Really funny isn't it? UGH!
Didn’t Daley hold off announcing the vote count until the rest of the country came he? He wanted to see how many votes JFK needed
His daddy bought him that election.
It was well known at the time, too! Lots of corruption in that administration. It WAS dysfunctional as well.
Former and now deceased Congressman Tip O’Neill admitted on the Phil Donahue show, well, no, he didn’t ‘admit’ it, he was actully bragging that the Kennedy vote was bought by Joe Kennedy aided by the Chicago political machine.
Just take care of Florida for us! I really be shocked if Georgia is not the first state called after the polls close; and it WON’T be for 0bammy!
Unfortunately, I’m registered in Georgia.
I lived in Mayor Daley’s WARD, in Chicago when this happened.. His Ward office was a block from my home and we kids, watched the backroom fill out new ballots, and destroy the ballots brought to the backdoor before burning them in 55gal drums in the alley..
Daley waited until he got a call from someone to start stuffing the ballot boxes and then announced the results.. I would swear to it on a witness stand and tried to tell the press and DA at the time, all to no avail..
I kept a copy of the complaint I tried to file at the time and have it still.. I never received a phone call, even after being told to STFU..
The average of state polls is a lagging indicator. As pointed out here they are done less frequently than the national polls additionally they are more likely to use the 2008 voter turnout models and when they are averaged they will include a number of predebate polls still....
IMO based on an even voter turnout model (less than 2010 which was +1.3% R).
I worked for a liberal Democrat Congress-critter from South Florida in the 80’s.
I spent a lot of time with his campaign volunteers who were primarily elderly transplants (permanent residents) or snowbirds (half-year residents) from New York and New Jersey.
They openly discussed how they requested their absentee ballots from “back home” so they could vote in both places. They argued that since they paid taxes in both places, they had a right to vote in both places. This was widely accepted as common practice in the South Florida retirement community.
The most current RCP Electoral College map show Romney with 206 and Obama with 201. I don’t know where you came up with the other numbers.
Interesting comments regarding state versus national polls.
Looking at the Rasmussen polls for today on RCP shows the following:
Missouri
Romney +11
McKaskill +8
Missouri going GOP for President and Democrat for Senator. I know several things can influence that type swing but I still find it interesting.
I remember reading, on more than one occasion over the years, that one factor in Nixon losing to Kennedy in Illinois in 1960 was that - it was reported - thousands of uncounted ballots were found in the Chicago River.
I remember a very nice young lady radio personality (I forget her name), a lady who worked for Nixon when he was retired - and I remember hearing her say that Nixon chose not to contest the results in Illinois, because even were the allegations against the Daley machine proven true, Illinois 27 electoral votes alone would not have changed the outcome of the election, as Nixon trailed Kennedy by more electoral votes than that.
Someday, maybe the GOP in Illinois can gain enough local support in the State to wrangle a divorce - splitting Chicago off into it’s own state; and gaining two GOP federal senators in the process.
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| GGG managers are SunkenCiv, StayAt HomeMother & Ernest_at_the_Beach | |
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Thanks SeekAndFind. |
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Thanks for the correction. I knew that, or would have if I had been thinking sports instead of politics.
http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/map.php
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the entire United States. The bill preserves the Electoral College, while ensuring that every vote in every state will matter in every presidential election. The National Popular Vote law has been enacted by states possessing 132 electoral votes — 49% of the 270 electoral votes needed to activate it.
The states VT MD WA IL NJ DC MA CA HI
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