Skip to comments.Vanity - What is going on over at Intrade (10/21)?
Posted on 10/21/2012 11:21:55 AM PDT by Perdogg
I apologize for the vanity, but I do not really know much about Intrade. I know it is called a "Prediction" site, which is a fancy legalistic word for gambling. I am assuming US law prohibits Americans from participating.
1. Today - New Hampshire and Alaska are considered toss up
2. Yesterday Colorado was toss up now leans Romney.
3. Friday - Ohio was shifting between toss up and Lean Obama.
In all of this Obama keeps flucuating between 60 and 61.5%. Once he hits 60% he goes up.
I don't understand how all of this works. It does not seem very logical.
It means that there are a lot of people with a lot of money at stake who still strongly feel that Pres. Obama is going to get reelected.
Foreign money trying to influence election.
If they cut their losses now, they lose. Lot of money on buys in September when Obama was at 70-80 in September.
I’m guessing, they are holding out hope for an Obama comeback. Just like the stock market. But eventually they’ll have to cut their losses.
Most of the people involved are Europeans and foreigners who probably know very little about Romney, other than he’s not Obama.
Two things, I believe.
1. Pump and dump. By pumping Obama, it influences people to buy Obama shares. The smart money should be dumping it l, in the not far off future.
2. It mâles Obama look stronger than he is in reality, causing people to support him when they might not normally.
Or it could mean that some rich Leftie like Soros has a “buy” in every time Zero gets in trouble. That would explain the correlation with specific levels better than campaign events.
Intrade is purely controlled by market forces: meaning every time someone takes a bet on one particular outcome, it shifts the odds fractionally in the opposite direction. The more that is bet, the more the odds shift.
i.e. if Obama is priced at 61% and I place a large amount of money on him to win, his odds will then shift to 60.9 or 60.8%. If someone else then follows suit, they’ll shift further. As soon as someone else bets the other way, they shift back in the opposite direction. The current price thus reflects what those who are gambling on the site consider to be good value for money.
The idea is that every market will thus ‘find its own level’ - if you placed a contract on the site listing Obama at 20%, say, it’d be snapped up in seconds and disappear - even I’d take it (and I think Romney will win) as I could simply lay the bet off by backing Romney at 40% and make a guaranteed profit either way.
More traditional bookmakers simply offer odds: currently 4/11 Obama and 2/1 Romney in the UK, where I’m based right now.
Intrade is partly an indicator, but there is also a (lot) of money in my opinion, being used flat-out spent to influence intrade.
You can get as much bang out of buying up intrade, as you can on an ad.
I firmly believe there is a (lot) of intrade being bought right now by Obama’s supporters.
Not to win. But to influence the percentage.
I do not trade intrade, but I bet there is a fortune to be made by betting contrary to that.
Foreigners and stimulus monopoly money.
I see Intrade now a psyop, Scholastic ‘presidential election’ as Gattica, and all media as 1984.
WE are The Resistance.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, Intrade is not particularly prophetic (except, arguably, a day or two before voting day). The few really professional gamblers aren’t really betting on a particular outcome, they are looking to buy-low and sell-high. Because there is not a huge amount of money in Intrade, it is also subject to manipulation by partisans. Finally, judging by the comments on Intrade forums, most gamblers are simply following simplistic, conventional wisdom.
I keep an eye on Intrade daily and I can flat out state that every single time Obama drops to or below 60, heavy buying steps in and magically the share price moves back up above 60.
Intrade had the Patriots being the Giants in both Super Bowls
Hey that is a (very) good point.
Intrade is one way for foreigners to legally influence American elections.
I had never thought of that.
Intrade is one way for foreigners to legally influence America elections.
Intrade is in play - more should bet against it. Lots more.
The more who bet against it, the more expensive it becomes to influence...
Go short Obama! 200% leveraged to the max!
(althought I’m not sure if it’s legal for Americans to buy)
Anyone know offhand?
I’ll not buy it anyway, but it would be good information to know.
Isn't that what BO and his handlers (e.g. Soros) want, after all?
I think conservatives are more likely to invest than gamble.
Liberals the reverse