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Vanity - What is going on over at Intrade (10/21)?

Posted on 10/21/2012 11:21:55 AM PDT by Perdogg

I apologize for the vanity, but I do not really know much about Intrade. I know it is called a "Prediction" site, which is a fancy legalistic word for gambling. I am assuming US law prohibits Americans from participating.

1. Today - New Hampshire and Alaska are considered toss up

2. Yesterday Colorado was toss up now leans Romney.

3. Friday - Ohio was shifting between toss up and Lean Obama.

In all of this Obama keeps flucuating between 60 and 61.5%. Once he hits 60% he goes up.

I don't understand how all of this works. It does not seem very logical.


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Weird Stuff
KEYWORDS: intrade

1 posted on 10/21/2012 11:21:57 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: Perdogg

It means that there are a lot of people with a lot of money at stake who still strongly feel that Pres. Obama is going to get reelected.


2 posted on 10/21/2012 11:25:42 AM PDT by krb (Obama is a miserable failure.)
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To: Perdogg

Foreign money trying to influence election.

If they cut their losses now, they lose. Lot of money on buys in September when Obama was at 70-80 in September.

I’m guessing, they are holding out hope for an Obama comeback. Just like the stock market. But eventually they’ll have to cut their losses.


3 posted on 10/21/2012 11:26:47 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: Perdogg

Most of the people involved are Europeans and foreigners who probably know very little about Romney, other than he’s not Obama.


4 posted on 10/21/2012 11:27:36 AM PDT by Shadow44
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To: nhwingut; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...

ping


5 posted on 10/21/2012 11:27:54 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

Two things, I believe.

1. Pump and dump. By pumping Obama, it influences people to buy Obama shares. The smart money should be dumping it l, in the not far off future.

2. It mâles Obama look stronger than he is in reality, causing people to support him when they might not normally.


6 posted on 10/21/2012 11:28:57 AM PDT by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
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To: Perdogg
S-O-R-O-S.






As good as any other explanation. ;^)
7 posted on 10/21/2012 11:29:23 AM PDT by Red Steel
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To: krb

Or it could mean that some rich Leftie like Soros has a “buy” in every time Zero gets in trouble. That would explain the correlation with specific levels better than campaign events.


8 posted on 10/21/2012 11:29:43 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Perdogg

Intrade is purely controlled by market forces: meaning every time someone takes a bet on one particular outcome, it shifts the odds fractionally in the opposite direction. The more that is bet, the more the odds shift.

i.e. if Obama is priced at 61% and I place a large amount of money on him to win, his odds will then shift to 60.9 or 60.8%. If someone else then follows suit, they’ll shift further. As soon as someone else bets the other way, they shift back in the opposite direction. The current price thus reflects what those who are gambling on the site consider to be good value for money.

The idea is that every market will thus ‘find its own level’ - if you placed a contract on the site listing Obama at 20%, say, it’d be snapped up in seconds and disappear - even I’d take it (and I think Romney will win) as I could simply lay the bet off by backing Romney at 40% and make a guaranteed profit either way.

More traditional bookmakers simply offer odds: currently 4/11 Obama and 2/1 Romney in the UK, where I’m based right now.


9 posted on 10/21/2012 11:30:39 AM PDT by Zajko (Never wrestle with a pig. You'll both get dirty, but the pig likes it.)
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To: nhwingut

Bingo.

Intrade is partly an indicator, but there is also a (lot) of money in my opinion, being used flat-out spent to influence intrade.

You can get as much bang out of buying up intrade, as you can on an ad.

I firmly believe there is a (lot) of intrade being bought right now by Obama’s supporters.

Not to win. But to influence the percentage.

I do not trade intrade, but I bet there is a fortune to be made by betting contrary to that.

Just saying...


10 posted on 10/21/2012 11:31:00 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: Perdogg

Foreigners and stimulus monopoly money.

I see Intrade now a psyop, Scholastic ‘presidential election’ as Gattica, and all media as 1984.

WE are The Resistance.


11 posted on 10/21/2012 11:31:52 AM PDT by combat_boots (The Lion of Judah cometh. Hallelujah. Gloria Patri, Filio et Spiritui Sancto.)
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To: Perdogg

Contrary to conventional wisdom, Intrade is not particularly prophetic (except, arguably, a day or two before voting day). The few really professional gamblers aren’t really betting on a particular outcome, they are looking to buy-low and sell-high. Because there is not a huge amount of money in Intrade, it is also subject to manipulation by partisans. Finally, judging by the comments on Intrade forums, most gamblers are simply following simplistic, conventional wisdom.


12 posted on 10/21/2012 11:33:40 AM PDT by jjsheridan5
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To: Perdogg

I keep an eye on Intrade daily and I can flat out state that every single time Obama drops to or below 60, heavy buying steps in and magically the share price moves back up above 60.


13 posted on 10/21/2012 11:34:34 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: Perdogg

Intrade had the Patriots being the Giants in both Super Bowls


14 posted on 10/21/2012 11:36:39 AM PDT by PMAS (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing)
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To: Perdogg
InTrade can be moved by less than a carrot
15 posted on 10/21/2012 11:36:44 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Hey that is a (very) good point.

Intrade is one way for foreigners to legally influence American elections.

I had never thought of that.

Intrade is one way for foreigners to legally influence America elections.

Intrade is in play - more should bet against it. Lots more.

The more who bet against it, the more expensive it becomes to influence...


16 posted on 10/21/2012 11:40:11 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: Perdogg

Go short Obama! 200% leveraged to the max!


17 posted on 10/21/2012 11:40:42 AM PDT by steve86 (Acerbic by nature not nurture TM)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

(althought I’m not sure if it’s legal for Americans to buy)

Anyone know offhand?

I’ll not buy it anyway, but it would be good information to know.


18 posted on 10/21/2012 11:41:55 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network; E. Pluribus Unum
Intrade is one way for foreigners to legally influence American elections.

Isn't that what BO and his handlers (e.g. Soros) want, after all?

19 posted on 10/21/2012 11:42:18 AM PDT by thecodont
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To: Perdogg

I think conservatives are more likely to invest than gamble.

Liberals the reverse


20 posted on 10/21/2012 11:53:17 AM PDT by Mount Athos (A Giant luxury mega-mansion for Gore, a Government Green EcoShack made of poo for you)
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To: Mount Athos

I think Intrade is being played by foreign money. The more I think about this the more it makes complete sense.

Foreign money doesn’t have a legal inroad to influence US elections, except for something like Intrade.

This is exactly what is happening.

Intrade is being influenced by foreign money. Not to win money, but to influence the election.


21 posted on 10/21/2012 11:56:58 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: Perdogg
Where do you think where some of the missing “green” stimulus money went?
22 posted on 10/21/2012 12:27:13 PM PDT by Lockbar (Romney's job on day one: Shut down all the Obama Phones)
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To: Perdogg
The Intrade volume is too low for it (Intrade) to be taken very seriously at this point (though it is picking up).

Next week should be a much different story.

23 posted on 10/21/2012 12:28:43 PM PDT by RoosterRedux (Obama: "If you've got a business -- you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen.")
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To: Perdogg
It is called hedging.

Basically, if Obama wins, we will all take it in the shorts.

So, why not hedge that by winning some money if Obama wins.

24 posted on 10/21/2012 12:29:33 PM PDT by justa-hairyape
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To: Perdogg

Put 5 sawbucks on Mitt and let it ride.


25 posted on 10/21/2012 12:32:19 PM PDT by eyedigress ((zOld storm chaser from the west)/?)
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To: Perdogg

Intrade is a much thinner market than let’s say Wall Street. What that means is whereas it will take several million dollars to move a stock like MSFT or Apple a few pennies, half a million can move Intrade numbers by several percentage points. If a freeper is willing to bet $2 million on Romney, the numbers would change significantly.


26 posted on 10/21/2012 12:34:06 PM PDT by entropy12 (Romney/Ryan 2012... Send Obama back to Chicago/Hawaii/Kenya/Indonesia wherever)
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To: justa-hairyape

Think of Intrade:

It is a free market. Anyone in the world can invest in it (except I think for Americans - not sure about that)

Communist China. Russia. Iran. Anyone.

Soros.

Imagine a tiny market, in a big international world seeking to advance a political agenda, but not having legal American resources to do so.

That IMHO is what is happening.

Intrade is being played.

I hope some real contrary money takes huge advantage of this, it is an opportunity just waiting for someone to take huge advantage of.


27 posted on 10/21/2012 12:34:26 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (America doesn't need any new laws. America needs freedom!)
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To: Shadow44

“Most of the people involved are Europeans and foreigners who probably know very little about Romney, other than he’s not Obama.”

They are all foreigners as Americans are banned from trading. Some free market, huh?


28 posted on 10/21/2012 12:45:46 PM PDT by ari-freedom
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

There is a legal betting site for US bettors at:
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/

They post the current odds at:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html


29 posted on 10/21/2012 1:33:06 PM PDT by preacher (Communism has only killed 100 million people: Let's give it another chance!)
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To: Perdogg

Zero has as about much chance in Alaska as a Used Jesus Salesman..
Even the women here are packin heat..


30 posted on 10/21/2012 2:26:42 PM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
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To: Perdogg

Until about a week out Intrade is a gambling site. It is being churned.


31 posted on 10/21/2012 2:29:36 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it.)
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To: Perdogg

Until about a week out Intrade is a gambling site. It is being churned.


32 posted on 10/21/2012 2:30:29 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it.)
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To: Perdogg

At 5:00 PM Pacific time on election day 2004 Bush was at 15% to be re-elected.


33 posted on 10/21/2012 2:40:55 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it.)
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To: justa-hairyape
It is called hedging.

Basically, if Obama wins, we will all take it in the shorts.

So, why not hedge that by winning some money if Obama wins.

Yeah, I’ve considered that issue myself.

34 posted on 10/21/2012 4:44:19 PM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion (The idea around which “liberalism" coheres is that NOTHING actually matters except PR.)
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