Skip to comments.Election Polls -- Accuracy Record in Presidential Elections-Gallup Poll Accuracy Record
Posted on 10/21/2012 11:54:26 AM PDT by Signalman
Click the link to see the accuracy of the Gallup poll from 1936 to present. With a few exceptions, it's been quite accurate, usually not off more than a few points either way. And those that are off more than 3 pts on the plus side have usually gone to the Dem.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Gallup’s top guy was just on with Chris Wallace and he refused to ‘predict’ the election outcome with two weeks to go.
On Oct 21 of 2008, Gallup had Obama +8. Obama won by 7.
Turn out the lights!
Is Zogby still around? Haven’t heard any polling from him. He used to be the most accurate, now it’s Rasmussen.
A lot of these polls will favor the leftist until the last one before the vote.
The last one they try harder to be accurate because that’s what they are judged on for future business.
Gallup has been polling US Presidential Elections since 1936. They’re October/November polls are excellent historically and their misses don’t favor either party. Their one big miss outside the MOE? You guessed, it “Dewey beats Truman!” :-}
In '48 there was a third party candidate that got 11 points and in '76 it was predicted at less than the margin of error.
And there is one pattern that is apparent if you look that the numbers...Gallup routinely underestimates Republican numbers and over estimates democrap numbers.
What on earth is wrong with Investor’s Business Daily???!
I guess we will know on Nov 7th. But I think Gallup is slightly over estimating Romney’s lead, and most of the rest are under estimating his lead. I believe he is in the +4~5 range right now nationally.I have thought it would end up being a 52-47 or 52-48 Romney win with 300+ EVs.
Regardless of poll or actual number, every poll is trending Romney big time the last 2 weeks. Virtually every poll shows him moving at least 4 pts.
And this movement seems sustained. We started to see slight movement right before debate #1, and it has accelerated since. And it doesn’t seem to be a debate bump. I think we have seen a fundamental shift in the election. Maybe Romney’s strong Debate#1 pulled the shift ahead.
Even the media and others are starting to acknowledge R&R are winning and have a good chance Nov 6th. If there is no major shift coming out of the final debate, this will begin to “wrap up” pretty quick. The last week will be more about down ballot help and of course GOTV.
Is Zogby still around?”
I have been wondering the same thing. Used to receive a request to participate in an on-line poll almost weekly and then nothing. Really liked their questions. Generally dealt with issues that were in the news and political questions.
You are most correct....From Eisenhowers re-election in 1956 (excluding Bush in 2004), the incumbent has also received about 2% less in the actual vote than their final poll...so count on Zero to slightly underperform his final poll number...
The last Zogby poll I remember seeing (maybe 2 weeks ago) had Obama up by 3. Very rarely look for Zogby results as it is a Muslim-run outfit not known for its honest polling methods.
***Gallup routinely underestimates Republican numbers and over estimates democrap numbers****
Right - Fox always mentions those two numbers but the Gallup
guy disputed the “Democrat weighted”- responders. Stated that they don’t ask for Party affiliation - only:
Registered to vote.
Likely to vote -or- enthusiasm.
Party registration is listed as a ‘foot note’.
Rasmussen may be showing a tight race but finally they are seeing a falling Obama approval rate, down to -16 today! I watch that closely and believe this is important to leveling out some of the volitility.
The Supreme Court will likely settle this thing.
Actually doesn’t look to be that accurate. Gallup was #17 overall in 2008.
Last 4 presidential elections since 1996 Gallup has been extremely accurate. Hard to argue with success, especially if your guy is winning. ;-)
“Is Zogby still around? Havent heard any polling from him. He used to be the most accurate.”
Step away from the bong.
Zogby has gone so far into the tank for his ‘Arab American’ causes (read that as CAIR because they seem to be in lock step) that his polling has become useless
And that miss was admittedly because they quit polling a month out of the election