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You should buy. It's underpriced. Doesn't mean you'll win ... but at this point it should be priced at .85 for Romney.

Keep in mind you have to either wire or send a cashier's check to Intrade - so get going now - it may be a day or more before you can actually invest your money, and the media narrative distorting the price can't hold out for much longer, now that's it come to "R might win the popular, but O will still win" ... that's the media's last stand. It will break next week.

This price, by the way, is exactly why Intrade is not an efficient market and can't be used to predict political campaigns. Remember that only a week or so ago did Europeans have any idea it was even a race.

I once believed the idea that since people were laying down their money, it wold be more accurate. But other reasons overwhelm that in certain bets, politics being a a major example.

Uneducated investors (meaning not fully aware of the facts)
People investing fun money, not like investing in the market for retirement.
Gamblers taken as a whole aren't the smartest most well informed people in the world. (Some are - but as a group, no.)
The market is too small

So Intrade is great for taking advantage of an inefficient market. Here at FR we have insider information not available to the rest of the investors, 95% of whom are listening to media and media polls, and don't know they can't trust that information.

Go for it, Martha Stweart, this type of insider trading is quite legal :-)

PS, consider making 2 trades, one or Presidnet, one for 290 or 300 EV.

Set it up such that whatever money you are willing to put down, you split that money so that if Romney wins, but doesn't get 290 or 300, you'd only lose (on the EV bet) half your winnings (from the President bet)

Not sure what 290 / 300 odds are, but whatever they are, they are wrong, and if you look at the return on those bets - it's probably sereislee hugh.

In this case, were Romney to lose, you lose the same amount of money, and if he wins but doesn't take the EVs, you still win half your money.

But the concepts the media is not acknowledging that point to a Romney victory point to a decidely lopsided victory. (Even w/o PA and MI, if Romney wins all the states easier than that plus 1 EV in Maine - that's 302 EVs. Hedge @ 290 if you want for a fluke in Nevada, IA, NH etc. CO seems to be in the bag now for RR.