Skip to comments.Vanity: Poll update and breakdown info on Fischer (R) vs Kerrey (D) (NE Senate Race)
Posted on 10/28/2012 5:28:36 PM PDT by Kolath
From: Aaron Trost, Deb Fischer for U.S. Senate, Campaign Manager To: Interested Parties Date: Sunday, October 28, 2012 ---
Today, the Omaha World-Herald (OWH) released a survey that shows a drastically different result than what our internal polling shows. The OWH commissioned a poll of 800 registered voters from Tuesday, October 23 through Thursday, October 25. The result of the OWH survey showed Senator Fischer leading Bob Kerrey by a margin of 3 points 48% to 45%. The margin among likely voters was similar 49% to 46%.
Read Below for interesting info:
The polling firm used by our campaign is Public Opinion Strategies (POS). Consideredone of the top Republican polling firms in the country, POS has an incredibly strong record of accomplishment in Nebraska. They were the polling firm used in the successful campaigns of Governor Dave Heineman, Senator Mike Johanns, Senator Chuck Hagel, Congressman Lee Terry, Congressman Jeff Fortenberry and Congressman Adrian Smith.
Our campaign is very confident in the survey work done by POS, as they understand Nebraska very well and have sound methodology that has been battle tested through the years. Thats why they are the polling firm of choice for Republican campaigns in Nebraska.
The OWH has a history of releasing surveys in competitive Nebraska races about 8 to 10 days before the election. In the past, there has been a large variance between the margin of the ballot test on the OWH poll and actual margin of the Election Day results. In those cases, the Republican candidate does significantly better than the OWH poll.
See the examples below: -- 2010 Omaha World-Herald Poll CD 2 Released: October 25, 2010 Wiese Research Associates Sample: 607 Registered Voters OWH Poll Result: Republican +5% Lee Terry (R) 44% Tom White (D) 39%
Election Result: Republican +22% Lee Terry (R) 61% Tom White (D) 39% -Difference in Election Day Margin for Republican Candidate in 2010 CD 2 Race= +17%
2004 Omaha World-Herald Poll CD 1 Released: October 26, 2004 RKM Research and Communications
Sample: Unknown from News Article Archive OWH Poll Result: Republican +4%
Jeff Fortenberry (R) 42% Matt Connealy (D) 38%
Election Result: Republican +11% Jeff Fortenberry (R) 54% Matt Connealy (D) 43%
-Difference in Election Day Margin for Republican Candidate in 2004 CD 1 Race = +7%
2000 Omaha World-Herald Poll U.S. Senate Race Released: October 30, 2000 RKM Research and Communications
Sample: 1,007 Registered Voters
OWH Poll Result: Republican -12% Ben Nelson (D) 49% Don Stenberg (R) 37%
Election Result: Republican -2% Ben Nelson (D) 51% Don Stenberg (R) 49%
-Difference in Election Day Margin for Republican Candidate in 2000 Senate Race = +10%
1998 Omaha World Herald Poll CD 2 Released: October 28, 1998- RKM Research and Communications-
Sample: 502 Registered Voters
OWH Poll Result: Republican +23% Lee Terry (R) 54% Michael Scott (D) 31%
Election Result: Republican +32%
Lee Terry (R) 66% Michael Scott (D) 34% -Difference in Election Day Margin for Republican Candidate in 1996 CD 2 Race = +9%
1996 Omaha World Herald Poll - 1996 Senate Race Released: October 27, 1996- Gallup Organization
Sample: 1,006 Registered voters
OWH Poll Result: Republican -5% Ben Nelson (D) 49% Chuck Hagel (R) 44%
Election Result: Republican +14%
Chuck Hagel (R) 56% Ben Nelson (D) 42%
-Difference in Election Day Margin for
Republican Candidate in 1996 Senate race = +19% ------
The OWHs polling has consistently shown a significantly lower margin for the Republican candidate when compared to the Election Day results, as these past cases illustrate.
For the record, I do not suspect any foul play on behalf of the OWH or their pollster in any of these surveys. However, I do believe that the methodology used in these past surveys produce results that skew Democratic and interview many respondents who are unlikely to vote on Election Day.
I believe the survey they released today is similar to these past examples; I expect Senator Fischer to win on Election Day by double digits.
Please feel free to pass this memo to any interested parties.
Sincerely, Aaron Trost Campaign Manager, Deb Fischer for U.S. Senate
Nebraska is just another bipolar state
Bob Kerrey has no chance to win. Period.
He will be eaten up on election day.
Pretty much describes the OWH methodology...says one thing but continually undercounts GOP support in it’s polls.
Has Ernie Chambers become the World Herald’s pollster?
Ernie is in the corner counting his marbles
My guess? The World-Herald only made local calls to do their surveys.
I received another telephone poll tonight that focused on Fischer-Kerrey. I think someone is polling to disprove the World Herald poll and the local abc station made it the lead story, prominently highlighting Kerrey and his efforts to pull republicans over by virtue of his phoney promises, his MOH, his ties to Nelson. The POS will not win; it will not do any good. As I write this, one of his lying commercials is on pushing his MOH, former governor and pushing the BS that he will put country ahead of politics. A crock of crap most Nebraskans will not buy.
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