Skip to comments.Ledge-Jumpers and Eeyores: 3 remaining worries
Posted on 11/01/2012 12:10:36 PM PDT by vonkayel
Ok...I'm a recovering pessimist. I actually think Romney's going to win this thing, and possibly win it by a larger margin than most pollsters and pundits are predicting. The national election seems to have stabilized into a 50-47 pattern that is unlikely to change barring some major news event or scandal over the weekend.
But I still have a little bit of Eeyore in me, and there are three things that worry me:
1. Nate Silver This whiny turd with his hyperconfident "78.9 chance Obama wins" line is the biggest burr in my saddle. Unlike many, I'm not that impressed with his 2008 predictions. I think he was fed internal data by the O campaign. What I don't understand is why he would risk his entire professional reputation on such seemingly outlanding claims in 2012. Bizzarre.
2. Ohio I keep expecting the Ohio polls to break massively toward Romney, but it hasn't happened. I understand that there are flaws in the methodology and sampling, but it still makes me nervous.
3. Intrade This is probably the most ridiculous of my worries. Intrade has been notoriously wrong in the past (see: Supreme Court to Overturn Obamacare = 95%). Still, the fact that there has been practialy no erosion in the Obama futures bothers me.
All things considered, I would MUCH rather be in our shoes than the Democrats. But, for the sake of the unreformed Eeyores lurking on FR, could someone please demolish these three nagging concerns?
2. Talk to LS
3. talk to Software Engineer
...first forget about Silver, only hard core nut cases believe half of what he’s saying....the other two will play themselves out during Nov 6th, I believe in our favor...
I was gonna start a Pessimist’s Club, but I figured it would never get off the ground.
about Nate Silver,
I was thinking the exact same thing about Dick Morris....the guy has put all his political stock on the line.
Maybe Silver is being fed fake numbers from O’s campaign, knowing full well Silver would take those numbers and do what he’s doing.
4. Vote fraud.
Barone and Rove said Romney will win.
What's the point? We're all gonna die someday anyways.
Nate Silver’s track record - 1 presidential election - 2008. Big Deal. Gallup’s record is several decades, Univ of Colorado - 30 years.
No matter how HORRIFYINGLY PAINFULLY TRAGICALLY AWFUL it looks, it is a MILLION times worse. Then things get *really* tough. After that, HORRIBLE things happen, and then we REALLY get screwed. Immediately following that, the BOTTOM drops out and we are all DEAD, and THEN things get HARD! Once that happens, it signifies the TOTAL collapse of EVERYTHING, and that’s when the CATASTROPHE starts! It’s the sign of the end of EVERYTHING, but after that, comes the TRAGEDY. Then times get DIFFICULT, and things get WORSE, until it’s EXCRUCIATING, but that’s just the beginning, because after that it’s all PAIN.
None of these pundits, including Silver, are putting anything “on the line.” You see the same pundits re-appear, cycle after cycle, regardless of how their predictions come out.
Much like losing baseball managers.
Silver has an easy out - he’s allowing the possibility that Romney will win, just says the odds are against it. If Obama wins, there is no way to “prove” that Silver’s odds were unrealistically high.
Anyone who cares about Intrade, just remember that Kerry was at 90% on election day 2004.
1. He needs to be positive to keep the liberals from getting depressed and staying home.
2. I’m with you on this one.
3. InTrade is a bunch of liberals.
I was gonna start an Apathy ping list, but lost interest.
Silver put a $1000 on the line, but that’s probably pcket-change for him.
This is easy.
1) Silver bases his interesting and by and large worthwhile model on state polls. However, no matter how good the model, it rests entirely on the inputted state data, which is flawed. They are almost all using a overly rosy pro-Dem weight. This was covered very well in a post on Red State yesterday. While I highly respect him (I have a stats PhD from Georgia Tech and 3 majors at Berkeley), I firmly believe he will be wrong here. He has stated himself, that if his state data is wrong or biased, he will lose - covering himself for defeat tuesday. I think he knows it but he is in a corner now. Cant change the model this late.
2) Ohio is simply a tossup. Romney will not win by 3 or 4 points, so dont expect it. It is close. Simple as that. 50/50. Anyone who says otherwise is a partisan.
3) Where do you think InTrade people get their decisions? Yes, from Nate Silver, and Sam Wang, and polltracker...who all have flawed models. Also, the herd mentality. Favorites ALWAYS get more play. I sports betted for decades successfully, and made my money off underdogs because I knew the public loves favs. InTrade means nothing. The fact that it remains far under 79% that Silver predicts indicates that there are some big buyers on Romney keeping the number down. Always follow the big money, not the majority of bettors.
My money is on Romney by 2-2.5 points nationally, and a close but effective EV win. This will NOT be a landslide, sorry partisans, but it will be a win.
Barone has a ton of credibility, imo.
Rove, not so much.
My (relative) optimism about the outcome comes down to this: GOP enthusiasm is as high as I can recall in a long, long time. Dem enthusiasm is negligible. And I cannot imagine a scenario where Romney leads by 2-4 points nationally (and is competitive in places like WI, MN, PA, NH, and MI) but fails to win OH.
(2) As an extension of the previous point, you should not expect the state level polls to break heavily toward Romney except at the end when pollsters look to likely voter responses instead of their models. Ohio polling now seem to show Romney pulling ahead.
(3) Intrade is too thinly traded to be reliable except at the end when enough knowledgeable insiders take the plunge to overwhelm the true believers.
And Eeyores everywhere should keep in mind that Reagan's victory in 1980 was almost entirely unforeseen by the public polls. Notably, at the end, the pollsters for Reagan and Carter both saw the result coming. As professionals, they briefed their candidates and otherwise kept their mouths shut.
So take a look at Romney and Obama. Romney seems upbeat and confident, while Obama seems harsh and off his game. He he been warned what is likely coming his way: defeat, with many Democrats falling as well and blaming him.
Or...You could all login to my website at www.procrastinators.com! Login today!
Or the next....or...whatever.
1. If Silver gave Romney a chance, he’s never eat lunch on the coasts again. He knows the libs are looking to him for reinforcement. Trust Barrone over him. Barrone no one knows voting histrory better than anyone.
2. This is a legit worry. I would like to see at least more of a see-saw battle in OH.
3. Intrade is worthless.
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