Skip to comments.Ledge-Jumpers and Eeyores: 3 remaining worries
Posted on 11/01/2012 12:10:36 PM PDT by vonkayel
Ok...I'm a recovering pessimist. I actually think Romney's going to win this thing, and possibly win it by a larger margin than most pollsters and pundits are predicting. The national election seems to have stabilized into a 50-47 pattern that is unlikely to change barring some major news event or scandal over the weekend.
But I still have a little bit of Eeyore in me, and there are three things that worry me:
1. Nate Silver This whiny turd with his hyperconfident "78.9 chance Obama wins" line is the biggest burr in my saddle. Unlike many, I'm not that impressed with his 2008 predictions. I think he was fed internal data by the O campaign. What I don't understand is why he would risk his entire professional reputation on such seemingly outlanding claims in 2012. Bizzarre.
2. Ohio I keep expecting the Ohio polls to break massively toward Romney, but it hasn't happened. I understand that there are flaws in the methodology and sampling, but it still makes me nervous.
3. Intrade This is probably the most ridiculous of my worries. Intrade has been notoriously wrong in the past (see: Supreme Court to Overturn Obamacare = 95%). Still, the fact that there has been practialy no erosion in the Obama futures bothers me.
All things considered, I would MUCH rather be in our shoes than the Democrats. But, for the sake of the unreformed Eeyores lurking on FR, could someone please demolish these three nagging concerns?
2. Talk to LS
3. talk to Software Engineer
...first forget about Silver, only hard core nut cases believe half of what he’s saying....the other two will play themselves out during Nov 6th, I believe in our favor...
I was gonna start a Pessimist’s Club, but I figured it would never get off the ground.
about Nate Silver,
I was thinking the exact same thing about Dick Morris....the guy has put all his political stock on the line.
Maybe Silver is being fed fake numbers from O’s campaign, knowing full well Silver would take those numbers and do what he’s doing.
4. Vote fraud.
Barone and Rove said Romney will win.
What's the point? We're all gonna die someday anyways.
Nate Silver’s track record - 1 presidential election - 2008. Big Deal. Gallup’s record is several decades, Univ of Colorado - 30 years.
No matter how HORRIFYINGLY PAINFULLY TRAGICALLY AWFUL it looks, it is a MILLION times worse. Then things get *really* tough. After that, HORRIBLE things happen, and then we REALLY get screwed. Immediately following that, the BOTTOM drops out and we are all DEAD, and THEN things get HARD! Once that happens, it signifies the TOTAL collapse of EVERYTHING, and that’s when the CATASTROPHE starts! It’s the sign of the end of EVERYTHING, but after that, comes the TRAGEDY. Then times get DIFFICULT, and things get WORSE, until it’s EXCRUCIATING, but that’s just the beginning, because after that it’s all PAIN.
None of these pundits, including Silver, are putting anything “on the line.” You see the same pundits re-appear, cycle after cycle, regardless of how their predictions come out.
Much like losing baseball managers.
Silver has an easy out - he’s allowing the possibility that Romney will win, just says the odds are against it. If Obama wins, there is no way to “prove” that Silver’s odds were unrealistically high.
Anyone who cares about Intrade, just remember that Kerry was at 90% on election day 2004.
1. He needs to be positive to keep the liberals from getting depressed and staying home.
2. I’m with you on this one.
3. InTrade is a bunch of liberals.
I was gonna start an Apathy ping list, but lost interest.
Silver put a $1000 on the line, but that’s probably pcket-change for him.
This is easy.
1) Silver bases his interesting and by and large worthwhile model on state polls. However, no matter how good the model, it rests entirely on the inputted state data, which is flawed. They are almost all using a overly rosy pro-Dem weight. This was covered very well in a post on Red State yesterday. While I highly respect him (I have a stats PhD from Georgia Tech and 3 majors at Berkeley), I firmly believe he will be wrong here. He has stated himself, that if his state data is wrong or biased, he will lose - covering himself for defeat tuesday. I think he knows it but he is in a corner now. Cant change the model this late.
2) Ohio is simply a tossup. Romney will not win by 3 or 4 points, so dont expect it. It is close. Simple as that. 50/50. Anyone who says otherwise is a partisan.
3) Where do you think InTrade people get their decisions? Yes, from Nate Silver, and Sam Wang, and polltracker...who all have flawed models. Also, the herd mentality. Favorites ALWAYS get more play. I sports betted for decades successfully, and made my money off underdogs because I knew the public loves favs. InTrade means nothing. The fact that it remains far under 79% that Silver predicts indicates that there are some big buyers on Romney keeping the number down. Always follow the big money, not the majority of bettors.
My money is on Romney by 2-2.5 points nationally, and a close but effective EV win. This will NOT be a landslide, sorry partisans, but it will be a win.
Barone has a ton of credibility, imo.
Rove, not so much.
My (relative) optimism about the outcome comes down to this: GOP enthusiasm is as high as I can recall in a long, long time. Dem enthusiasm is negligible. And I cannot imagine a scenario where Romney leads by 2-4 points nationally (and is competitive in places like WI, MN, PA, NH, and MI) but fails to win OH.
(2) As an extension of the previous point, you should not expect the state level polls to break heavily toward Romney except at the end when pollsters look to likely voter responses instead of their models. Ohio polling now seem to show Romney pulling ahead.
(3) Intrade is too thinly traded to be reliable except at the end when enough knowledgeable insiders take the plunge to overwhelm the true believers.
And Eeyores everywhere should keep in mind that Reagan's victory in 1980 was almost entirely unforeseen by the public polls. Notably, at the end, the pollsters for Reagan and Carter both saw the result coming. As professionals, they briefed their candidates and otherwise kept their mouths shut.
So take a look at Romney and Obama. Romney seems upbeat and confident, while Obama seems harsh and off his game. He he been warned what is likely coming his way: defeat, with many Democrats falling as well and blaming him.
Or...You could all login to my website at www.procrastinators.com! Login today!
Or the next....or...whatever.
1. If Silver gave Romney a chance, he’s never eat lunch on the coasts again. He knows the libs are looking to him for reinforcement. Trust Barrone over him. Barrone no one knows voting histrory better than anyone.
2. This is a legit worry. I would like to see at least more of a see-saw battle in OH.
3. Intrade is worthless.
Rove was right in 2008.
Nate Silver, like all other Joun-O-Listers, will do whatever he has to do, and sacrifice whatever credibility he must, because he is in a dying industry.
Newsweek was the tip of the iceberg. Starting next year you are going to see dead tree news organizations laying-off and dropping like flies. Unless, that is, they get some form of government bailout, law forcing you to pay for web news content, or some other government prop under their sagging finances.
Hence they are totally in the tank for Barry. Without Hope and Change 2.0 there is no tomorrow for them.
The best way to allay concerns is to get out and volunteer for the campaign.
Even if Freepers aren’t in a ‘swing state,’ they can sign up to make calls from their cell phones to GOP voters in swing states:
2. Polls are breaking in OH for Romney: last three were tie, R+2, R+2.
3. Intrade had the USSC overturning Obamacare at a 90:10 ratio.
#2 is real. I am on the ground in Warren county, and I am telling you there is nowhere near the voter enthusiasm for the GOP there was in 2004 and 2008. Those who say unprecedented enthusiasm is everywhere are smoking crack. Average joes are not impressed with either of these guys. And Ryan does not have anywhere the reach and charisma of Palin to get to the working class voter.
Now there is also nowhere near the enthusiasm for Obama either, and GOP voters are more habitual voters, Romney might be OK.
But polls are polls, and the lesson is that they are not often wrong. Sometimes yes, but not often. And the polls are telling us that Romney will underperform the national average in OH.
So prepare yourself for four more years of Obama, a solidly GOP house and a split almost down the middle senate.
all polls but Rasmussen say Obama wins OH.
Nine out of ten people called by pollsters are refusing to respond.
Among the ten percent who do respond to pollster questions, Romney is now leading slightly, and comfortably enough not to worry about the vote fraud overcoming his lead.
Among the ninety percent who refuse to respond to pollster questions, 97.53% of them are tack-spitting outraged at Obama, Pelosi, Reid, the MSM, and every mind-numbingly stupid person who ever voted for any of this idiocy, such that the election day results will be a coast-to-coast Republican sweep that will dwarf 2010 and 1994.
Romney is going to win by twenty gazillion in the popular vote, and will take 117% of the electoral vote.
The GOP almost NEVER underperforms the national polls in Ohio. There’s more than one poll that has Mitt leading Ohio.
That for me endedhe argument. Barone is the Platinum standard. If you know anything about what he does for the year before an election... then you know that he is more on top of elections than any other man alive... end of story.
joe scarhead and silver had an agreement that there would be no actual bet. It was an mslsd diversion only.
Colorado used to be one of those states where the GOP always overperformed the national average. Things change sometimes.
Or we could ask ourselves if there is something about Romney that is causing him to not connect to your typical OH voter. I’ll leave that as an exercise, but I have my thoughts.
Or you can cling to hope and say that every poll but Rasmussen is wrong. And yes Rasmussen is the only poll I’m aware of with Romney leading.
Bingo! I am very confident that we will be popping corks Tuesday night, but vote fraud is my only concern. We are dealing with a godless group who worship at the altar of infanticide and perversion. We must be prayerful and vigilant until victory is complete!
A poll came out today with Romney up. Several polls have Mitt tied. I don’t think Mitt is out of it in Ohio. In the end it’s all about turnout of course.
This is *exactly* what I was looking for.
I just know somebody is going to start an Optimist’s Club!
And look where they are finishing up their campaigns:
Romney is going to New Hampshire, one of his four home states.
Obama is going to Iowa, where he kicked off his presidential run back in 2007.
R's is an act of confidence and O's is a concession of defeat, I think.
By today's standards, JFK would be considered an off the chart super right wing extremist hawk.
The liberal axis of Media,Politicians, and Communist citizens, are quick to label members of the Tea Party as “extremists”, thus tipping the median toward the left.
Where in fact, Tea Party members simply believe in the Constitution, the law of the land if you will.
They are law abiding normal people, not by any measure being extreme.
Now to the elephant. Only 60% of eligible voters cast a vote.
What are the other 40% waiting for?
The 40% have not been presented with a true conservative to vote for.
They have been waiting for someone who meets their criteria. Someone who is squeaky clean. Someone they can trust will always do the right thing. Someone they can trust will do what he says.
When that person enters the arena, the 40% elephant will enter with him.
That man has to be honed over the years. That man is recognizing that the pundits are wrong, migrating to the middle to capture votes results in little difference from your opponent, when there is no true difference then the 40% won't bother to cast a vote. That man is now starting to realize that being conservative is not only a good thing for one’s self and others, but is a winning strategy.
That man is Mitt Romeny. This will be a landslide of historic precedence.
Where is it?
RCP did not use it. The poll is posted at FR. Romney 3.5 lead with D+5.
Obama’s departure from Orlando before the storm hit was also strange. He could easily have gone to the scheduled rally at the University of Central Florida and then flown to Washington and toured the storm’s aftermath. Instead, Obama — and I am not making this up — delivered pizzas to staff and volunteers at a campaign phone bank, called on Bill Clinton as his substitute at the rally, and flew back to Washington. When a rally at a college campus becomes an unattractive venue for Obama, the fun has surely gone out of his campaign experience.
Also, besides Ras, Gallup, Battlegroud & Pew have all shown that Mitt is in good shape. From what I have looked at all these Ohio polls that show Obama up run anywhere from D+5 to D+9. I suppose if dems turn out in Ohio like 2008 then they win, but I don’t think that’s the case. D+2 seems more in line at best. Then it’s a toss-up
Since 1916, only three GOPers have underperformed in OH when winning the popular vote; really 2. 1920 was a special case, Harding was running against fellow Ohioian Cox. Nixon in 1972 and W in 2004
So in 25 elections, it’s happened 2-3 times. Or about 10% of the time.
So it’s not exactly impossible, just improbable. But it does happen.
That’s why I mentioned that to the poster. It’s highly unlikely that Mitt underperforms in Ohio ths year. If I remember both Ras & Gallup expect a +1 R vote nationwide.
Good shape, means tied to -2.
That’s not good shape, that’s losing with no momentum.
Oh and please post a link to this mystery poll that RCP does not use.
Not a chance. Nobody cares.
Laz, Founder of the Negativity Club.
Lol, go find it yourself....it’s been on FR all day.
Ohio is a real concern. It looks like it might be breaking the wrong way. I have cousins up there and from what I am hearing the local press is busy telling everyone that their jobs are not going to China. Why Romney thought he could scare people to the polls ~10 days out I will never know. If you are going to pull something like that you need to do it in the last weekend. He was a week early.
VOTE FIRST !