Skip to comments.Nate Silver-Intrade Poll Obama 82.35% Romney 16.93% MoE 1.8%
Posted on 11/01/2012 6:36:15 PM PDT by Perdogg
Breaking from a bathhouse in NYC, Nate Silver released his first poll in cooperation with Intrade betting site. He predicted with 99.9998% certainty that Obama would win all 538 Electoral Votes from all 57 states. He also said with 116.342% certainty that Obama would win the 2016 Republican and Democrat nomination and run unopposed.
Somebody hand dat boy a bath towel!
LoL. 99.99% confidence that Nate Silver goes into hiding on November 7th.
Good luck with that.
Bet the house on the dog.
3 out of the last 5 Ohio polls have Romney ahead. I wonder if Nate Silver has access to internal polling like he did in 2008 from the Obama campaign (He signed a confidentiality agreement).
Axleface must have clued Silver in on their plot to steal this election with enough welfare leeches, illigal aliens, university scum, government workers, unions and the large dead constituency to re-elect the Chicago Thug President.
A view from Europe where 90% love O.
if those figures are accurate I am willing to put $2K on Romney
does anyone know how to do that?
I find it interesting that we are seeing a slow drip of good news leaked out from internal polling by Romney...but NONE from Obama. All we see is "all is good" type stuff.
Leads me to believe they don't want to talk about what their internal polls are showing.
Careful drawing too much into what this cretin says.. He no doubt has a close relationship with the inner workings of the Zero Campaign, telling him stuff that is making him double down on his outlandish predictions..
Either they are purposely throwing this young up-incomer, under the bus, or they are allowing him in on the plans to steal this election, that they are convinced will not be challenged until it is too late, if ever..
So Nate knows where all the Spigot (cheating) Cities are?
Intrade is simply people “betting” on who will win...the price and hence implied odds is determined by who is buying more of which candidate...it is easily manipulated and democrats use it for propaganda purposes...
Doesn’t mean a thing folks!
Nate Silver, Nate Silver, Nate Silver! Who IS this Nate Silver?? I follow politics fairly closely but I swear I don’t remember him from other elections (or do I have to be a DU’er to know?)
Ok—more humor-—science-—funny- Obama followers
Which 3 of 5 is that? I'm not seeing it on RCP, or on the Cook report.
@LSchweikart on his Twitter feed has them.
That has been what I have been thinking today...I think there may be a dollar to be made there, seriously...
Having a fun time dissing a clown who runs a one-month old polling firm called Pharos. He cites that the NE senate race is a dead heat yet when questions are raised on the methodology (under samples R’s, over samples D’d for example) as well as comments saying his poll is an outlier and predicts Fischer (R) will win, you just gotta roll your eyes and go “mehh”.
As to the polls in general, let me quote an old advertising saying (Alpo) in the 1960’s, “Sir, they’re not eating the dog food.”
It’s really more simple than that.
Think about it.
Silver doesn’t want to talk about analysis or reality.
All he wants is to stay in good with the left.
They won’t blame it on him when zero loses.
But I guarantee you that if he even reluctantly picked Romney or called it a toss up then the left would be finished with him from now on.
Always keep in mind the individual’s personal goals and ambitions when listening to this stuff.
LOL, your satire.
I saw Nate Silver on Charlie Rose the other. (Yeah, I know...why would anyone want to watch Charlie Rose? I was bored....) Anyhow, he was saying that Obama had 75% chance of winning the Electoral College based on his analysis of an aggregate of many polls. He mentioned the Gallup poll, in particular, and said that it was outlier. He believes that the voter turnout model will be more like 08 than 10, so that is why he is confident in his analysis. I think he is going to be surprised like many others come election day.
They post the current odds at:
That said, he has to get it close at the end to preserve his reputation.. If he doesn't start to close soon, that isn't going to happen.. UNLESS, he believes, with something that assures himself, that he has solid ground that he is being told, to his satisfaction..
I follow your logic but disagree.
He got in the door by being accurate.
Now he is better off financially staying in the tank on the left.
He will be tossed out like bad dog meat if he does anything other than toe the party line.
Accuracy isn’t so important once you are in the door.
It’s more important to make the right person happy with you than anything else.
Just my two cents on Silver (which is worth more than he is).
Well, I know exactly what he is up to, and I will tell you everything next Wednesday, I have sooo much to do right now, to explain my theory in the detail it requires.. :)
Isn’t Intrade pretty much all Europeans betting on our elections?