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Nate Silver-Intrade Poll Obama 82.35% Romney 16.93% MoE 1.8%

Posted on 11/01/2012 6:36:15 PM PDT by Perdogg

Breaking from a bathhouse in NYC, Nate Silver released his first poll in cooperation with Intrade betting site. He predicted with 99.9998% certainty that Obama would win all 538 Electoral Votes from all 57 states. He also said with 116.342% certainty that Obama would win the 2016 Republican and Democrat nomination and run unopposed.


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Humor
KEYWORDS: 2012polls

1 posted on 11/01/2012 6:36:16 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: Perdogg

Somebody hand dat boy a bath towel!


2 posted on 11/01/2012 6:39:59 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Osama bin Laden is dead, Chrysler moved to Italy and China.)
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To: Perdogg

LoL. 99.99% confidence that Nate Silver goes into hiding on November 7th.


3 posted on 11/01/2012 6:41:31 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Perdogg
Very few US citizens are actually trading on InTrade. You have to make your purchase through an offshore account. InTrade is basically a bunch of foreigners making bets on what they think the outcome of the US election is going to be.

Good luck with that.

4 posted on 11/01/2012 6:42:10 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Government is the religion of the psychopath.)
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To: Perdogg

Bet the house on the dog.


5 posted on 11/01/2012 6:51:38 PM PDT by deweyfrank
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To: Perdogg

3 out of the last 5 Ohio polls have Romney ahead. I wonder if Nate Silver has access to internal polling like he did in 2008 from the Obama campaign (He signed a confidentiality agreement).


6 posted on 11/01/2012 6:54:31 PM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Your tattoo looks stupid.)
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To: Perdogg

Axleface must have clued Silver in on their plot to steal this election with enough welfare leeches, illigal aliens, university scum, government workers, unions and the large dead constituency to re-elect the Chicago Thug President.


7 posted on 11/01/2012 6:57:00 PM PDT by txrefugee
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To: Perdogg

A view from Europe where 90% love O.


8 posted on 11/01/2012 6:58:30 PM PDT by BunnySlippers (I LOVE BULL MARKETS . . .)
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To: Perdogg

if those figures are accurate I am willing to put $2K on Romney

does anyone know how to do that?


9 posted on 11/01/2012 6:58:32 PM PDT by Mr. K (What The World would hate more than the USA in charge is the USA NOT in charge")
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To: Tea Party Terrorist
>>>3 out of the last 5 Ohio polls have Romney ahead. I wonder if Nate Silver has access to internal polling like he did in 2008 from the Obama campaign (He signed a confidentiality agreement).

I find it interesting that we are seeing a slow drip of good news leaked out from internal polling by Romney...but NONE from Obama. All we see is "all is good" type stuff.

Leads me to believe they don't want to talk about what their internal polls are showing.

10 posted on 11/01/2012 7:00:26 PM PDT by NELSON111
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To: Red Steel

Careful drawing too much into what this cretin says.. He no doubt has a close relationship with the inner workings of the Zero Campaign, telling him stuff that is making him double down on his outlandish predictions..

Either they are purposely throwing this young up-incomer, under the bus, or they are allowing him in on the plans to steal this election, that they are convinced will not be challenged until it is too late, if ever..


11 posted on 11/01/2012 7:01:02 PM PDT by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber..)
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To: Perdogg

So Nate knows where all the Spigot (cheating) Cities are?


12 posted on 11/01/2012 7:05:08 PM PDT by madison10 (I love it when a plan comes together ~~God)
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To: Perdogg

Intrade is simply people “betting” on who will win...the price and hence implied odds is determined by who is buying more of which candidate...it is easily manipulated and democrats use it for propaganda purposes...

Doesn’t mean a thing folks!


13 posted on 11/01/2012 7:07:54 PM PDT by Wpin ("I Have Sworn Upon the Altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny...")
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To: Perdogg

Nate Silver, Nate Silver, Nate Silver! Who IS this Nate Silver?? I follow politics fairly closely but I swear I don’t remember him from other elections (or do I have to be a DU’er to know?)


14 posted on 11/01/2012 7:08:01 PM PDT by workerbee (The President of the United States is DOMESTIC ENEMY #1)
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To: Perdogg

Ok—more humor-—science-—funny- Obama followers

http://www.youtube.com/embed/Fos4EPUOsHo?feature=player_embedded


15 posted on 11/01/2012 7:20:38 PM PDT by Mark (Don't argue with my posts. I typed while under sniper fire.)
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To: Tea Party Terrorist
3 out of the last 5 Ohio polls have Romney ahead.

Which 3 of 5 is that? I'm not seeing it on RCP, or on the Cook report.

16 posted on 11/01/2012 7:21:31 PM PDT by Conscience of a Conservative
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To: Wpin
Doesn’t mean a thing folks! Means there could be some money to be made from the O-zealots.
17 posted on 11/01/2012 7:23:34 PM PDT by 5thGenTexan
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To: Conscience of a Conservative

@LSchweikart on his Twitter feed has them.


18 posted on 11/01/2012 7:29:39 PM PDT by Tea Party Terrorist (Your tattoo looks stupid.)
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To: 5thGenTexan

That has been what I have been thinking today...I think there may be a dollar to be made there, seriously...


19 posted on 11/01/2012 7:30:51 PM PDT by Wpin ("I Have Sworn Upon the Altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny...")
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To: All

Having a fun time dissing a clown who runs a one-month old polling firm called Pharos. He cites that the NE senate race is a dead heat yet when questions are raised on the methodology (under samples R’s, over samples D’d for example) as well as comments saying his poll is an outlier and predicts Fischer (R) will win, you just gotta roll your eyes and go “mehh”.

As to the polls in general, let me quote an old advertising saying (Alpo) in the 1960’s, “Sir, they’re not eating the dog food.”


20 posted on 11/01/2012 7:39:02 PM PDT by Kolath
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To: carlo3b

It’s really more simple than that.
Think about it.
Silver doesn’t want to talk about analysis or reality.
All he wants is to stay in good with the left.
They won’t blame it on him when zero loses.
But I guarantee you that if he even reluctantly picked Romney or called it a toss up then the left would be finished with him from now on.
Always keep in mind the individual’s personal goals and ambitions when listening to this stuff.


21 posted on 11/01/2012 8:00:26 PM PDT by Clump ( the tree of liberty is withering like a stricken fig tree)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

LOL, your satire.

I saw Nate Silver on Charlie Rose the other. (Yeah, I know...why would anyone want to watch Charlie Rose? I was bored....) Anyhow, he was saying that Obama had 75% chance of winning the Electoral College based on his analysis of an aggregate of many polls. He mentioned the Gallup poll, in particular, and said that it was outlier. He believes that the voter turnout model will be more like 08 than 10, so that is why he is confident in his analysis. I think he is going to be surprised like many others come election day.


22 posted on 11/01/2012 8:08:00 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
There is a legal betting site for US bettors at:
http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/

They post the current odds at:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html

23 posted on 11/01/2012 8:28:18 PM PDT by preacher (Communism has only killed 100 million people: Let's give it another chance!)
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To: Clump
I fully agree with what you are saying, but he draws his reputation from the fact that he called the last two elections close enough for some to expect his predictions to have something close to reliable for his own career..

That said, he has to get it close at the end to preserve his reputation.. If he doesn't start to close soon, that isn't going to happen.. UNLESS, he believes, with something that assures himself, that he has solid ground that he is being told, to his satisfaction..

24 posted on 11/01/2012 9:09:59 PM PDT by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber..)
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To: carlo3b

I follow your logic but disagree.
He got in the door by being accurate.
Now he is better off financially staying in the tank on the left.
He will be tossed out like bad dog meat if he does anything other than toe the party line.
Accuracy isn’t so important once you are in the door.
It’s more important to make the right person happy with you than anything else.
Just my two cents on Silver (which is worth more than he is).


25 posted on 11/01/2012 9:22:01 PM PDT by Clump ( the tree of liberty is withering like a stricken fig tree)
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To: Clump

Well, I know exactly what he is up to, and I will tell you everything next Wednesday, I have sooo much to do right now, to explain my theory in the detail it requires.. :)


26 posted on 11/01/2012 9:42:54 PM PDT by carlo3b (Less Government, more Fiber..)
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To: Perdogg

Isn’t Intrade pretty much all Europeans betting on our elections?


27 posted on 11/01/2012 9:56:33 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it!)
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