Posted on 11/01/2012 6:36:15 PM PDT by Perdogg
Breaking from a bathhouse in NYC, Nate Silver released his first poll in cooperation with Intrade betting site. He predicted with 99.9998% certainty that Obama would win all 538 Electoral Votes from all 57 states. He also said with 116.342% certainty that Obama would win the 2016 Republican and Democrat nomination and run unopposed.
It’s really more simple than that.
Think about it.
Silver doesn’t want to talk about analysis or reality.
All he wants is to stay in good with the left.
They won’t blame it on him when zero loses.
But I guarantee you that if he even reluctantly picked Romney or called it a toss up then the left would be finished with him from now on.
Always keep in mind the individual’s personal goals and ambitions when listening to this stuff.
LOL, your satire.
I saw Nate Silver on Charlie Rose the other. (Yeah, I know...why would anyone want to watch Charlie Rose? I was bored....) Anyhow, he was saying that Obama had 75% chance of winning the Electoral College based on his analysis of an aggregate of many polls. He mentioned the Gallup poll, in particular, and said that it was outlier. He believes that the voter turnout model will be more like 08 than 10, so that is why he is confident in his analysis. I think he is going to be surprised like many others come election day.
They post the current odds at:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres12_Quotes.html
That said, he has to get it close at the end to preserve his reputation.. If he doesn't start to close soon, that isn't going to happen.. UNLESS, he believes, with something that assures himself, that he has solid ground that he is being told, to his satisfaction..
I follow your logic but disagree.
He got in the door by being accurate.
Now he is better off financially staying in the tank on the left.
He will be tossed out like bad dog meat if he does anything other than toe the party line.
Accuracy isn’t so important once you are in the door.
It’s more important to make the right person happy with you than anything else.
Just my two cents on Silver (which is worth more than he is).
Well, I know exactly what he is up to, and I will tell you everything next Wednesday, I have sooo much to do right now, to explain my theory in the detail it requires.. :)
Isn’t Intrade pretty much all Europeans betting on our elections?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.