Skip to comments.Rasmussen 11/2 - R48.4, O47.6
Posted on 11/02/2012 6:35:25 AM PDT by mrs9x
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Incumbent below 50%. Never above it. Stay positive, everyone.
This man has been such a bad president ..how is this race even close?
Not good and getting tired of the We win crowd already!!!
Yes. If someone were to tell me a month ago that Romney would be up by a point with 4 days to go, I would have taken it in a heartbeat.
Romney gets republicans 88-9, democrats 11-86, and independents 47-44.
Well it’s certainly not 50-46, like it was a week ago.
So much interference being run by the media. Obama, Obama, Obama. Romney is not getting his message out unfiltered. Those who think that Romney will win in a landslide are delusional.
I think the jobs report will have an impact and take Romney over the 270..don’t forget Bush was up by 2-3% on the Friday before election day..and he lost the popular vote after the DUI report came out..
Yes, but Obama is stuck at 47%. This is disastrous for and incumbent president!
Imagine people wanting to reelect that idiot for doing absolutely nothing, which is what his visit to NJ amounted to, a photo op he hasn’t done anything.
I don’t trust the 47-44 independent number. According to what I’ve read that number looks suspicious.
Please look at the internals, Romney wins crossovers by 4 and Indies by 3.
Obama is at 44% with independants, only 86% of his own base.
Nope. And it won’t go back to 50-46 before election day.
I want to throw up.
I put up a post regarding the GOP’s image and marketing problem and mod took it off. I gotta tell you, Republicans not only have to fight to gain the electorate’s vote but they have to fight the media at the same time..it all comes down to marketing and branding..and the GOP has always had an issue with this.
Trust me on this...I own a marketing company and facility in Hollywood (yes me) and the Obama campaign contacted us for a few weeks inquiring about using our services for marketing..they never went thru with it..but they were contacting us even on a SUNDAY afternoon..they were working overtime..and this was before the first debate and before Romney went up..it all comes down to perception and marketing!..the message need to get out..
Ugh. Didn’t expect to see that. figured it would hang pretty much at 49-47. Of course with rounding, we might still see there with statistical noise. It definitely looks like the storm is helping Obama, sadly. He must have had two good days since his big tour. With the job numbers today, hopefully we see it open back up to a couple points. The focus is back on the crappy job environment as of 8:30 this morning.
What’s weird is Obama has hardly gained, it it loss from Romney. Seems like they need to sharpen their message again and not try to coast to victory.
OK Ras said two nights ago his turnout model is d+2. This puts Romney up and he should win based on turnout. Turnout is what we have to do. So far the early voting shows we are getting the turnout and Obama is heading to Boulder because he is not
According to Josh Jordan, the sample is Dem +3.
My suspicion when all is said and done is that Romney will get 6-8% of independents.
Also, remember that Rasmussen is using a Dem +3 or Dem +4 model here. If the electorate is more Republican than that, then Romney wins going away.
Not a good trend. Obviously a very good sample for Obama last night.
Not good. Bammy has closed the gap.
Well, so much for the theory the “undecideds break for the challenger.”
C’mon America... really??????
It’s close because he’s an incumbent and th media loves him.
Obama/Biden 46.84 percent
Romney/Ryan 51.55 percent
Other 1.05 percent
This morning news on radio (the station here that has Rush, Levin, and Hannity) announced a surprise rise of manufacturing jobs and then expanded on that as the news. At the end, an oh by the way statement about the unemployment rate came in at 7.9%.
Nothing about the rate being higher than when the community organizer took office. The media is covering the rise in unemployment like they are covering Benghazi.
Certainly these OPINION polls are too close for comfort right now, but as others have pointed out it’s R that flucuates, and not at Obama’s advantage. So I have to think that come Tues R voters will vote, and vacillators likely won’t vote at all.
Question is what is the truth about early voting. We’ve heard stories favoring R and ones favoring O. I don’t know what is truth and what is propaganda anymore.
No point in hand wringing. Explain to a vacillator this weekend that Obama is setting up an America that will be less free, less safe, and with a lower standard of living for their kids than they experience themselves.
Look it is not unexpected due to the fat bastard NJ governor and his traitorous behaviour.
But with the unemployment rate up,Romney should get the focus back on the economy and he will win.
Romney gained when he was able to present himself unfiltered. Sandy was a godsend for Obama (although a real disaster for everyone else). It made Romney invisible and gave Obama a chance to be “our leader” during crisis. It took every other story off the table the week leading to the election, most of which helped Mitt.
The shaky undecideds have tilted back some towards Obama as a result.
Obama is at 44% with independents.
Does anyone know what Rasmussen’s swing state poll is?
Yep. So much for the "undecideds break to the challenger" argument, if this poll is to be believed.
0bama will not get nearly as many votes from the NY, NJ, CT area as anticipated, people trying to recover from the storm don’t care about voting right now - they care about power, heat, getting gasoline, food & water.
“Well, so much for the theory the undecideds break for the challenger.”
Good to see I’m not the only one that does not buy that crap. They are the people at the table who ask the waiter to come a couple times and then finally say, “I’ll have what he’s/she’s having”.
Other than Obama, the two most prominent politicians in the nation this week were Christie and Bloomberg.
They both basically endorsed Obama - one with actual words (Bloomberg), and the other with photo op after photo op and high praise.
I’m no math major but if Romney is up 48-47 in a dem +3 model, if the turnout is actually R+2 the the result is 50-45 (not accounting for undecided that will likely break for Romney).
Again, he was only correct about the NUMBER who will vote for O no matter what.
That’s why HE said he didn’t say it right. That’s why RYAN said he was inarticulate.
FACTS: Obama will get millions of votes from liberal rich and middle class people who earn good incomes and who pay federal taxes and are not dependent on the government dole.
FACT: Romney will get millions of votes from working poor and lower middle class people who don’t happen to earn enough to owe federal income taxes and who are as self sufficient as they are able to be under the circumstances. Imagine a conservative man or woman who is poor because of unemployment and will blame Obama and vote for Romney. As just one example. There are millions of various examples of Romney voters who YOU say are voting for Obama, because of your allegiance to a comment that was admittedly SKEWED and did not reflect reality or what the man meant to convey.
You can cling to your dream world that the 47% comment was sacred, and you can blow off the truth every day for the rest of your life. That will not change the facts that the comment was skewed and the commenter himself, and his running mate, had the good graces and good sense to say so.
Many Republicans (and Freepers) see substance and package as inherently opposite of each other. They think if the substance is right, people will buy whatever they sell.
At this point, if you really can’t see much difference between the two, you wind up voting for “the Devil You Know.”
Obama is still sitting at 47%. There is no breaking. In Rasmussen’s poll, Romney has dropped from 50 to 49 to 48.4. Based on the poll he’s losing ground that he had won. Obama hasn’t picked up more than a point in weeks.
Yup, that's what it looks like to me as well. Romney was picking up momentum at just the right time and Sandy wiped it all away. There is still a few more days, hopefully Obama's Sandy bounce fades and Romney recovers.
I may be proven wrong, but I don’t think this is anything like a 1% race. Polls that are based on democrats having the same enthusiasm they had in 2008, when the nation voted D+ 2.5%, don’t pass the smell test. If anything, I thing the mood is less positive for democrats than it was in 2004, when the nation voted R +1.5.
But all the polls assume democrats are as fired up to vote for Obama as they were in 2008. I think we are seeing a fundamental flaw in how polls are conducted, with Republicans refusing to participate in polling.
I hang up immediately on ANY call involving politics. ANY. I have no interest in being polled anywhere but the polling booth. I view the media as the enemy and I don’t want to tell them anything. And I think a lot of Republicans are like me.
I think the election will force pollsters to rethink how they collect data. But we’ll see if I’m right in a few days. I expect Romney to win by a 53/47 margin - too close for the unmitigated disaster that is Obama, but Romney was RIGHT about the 47% who want to live sucking the government teat.
Certainly trending in the wrong direction. Clearly some movement towards Obama following the storm.
Romney had clear momentum, up 3 & 5 in Gallup and Rasmussen, respectively, only 4 days ago on Monday - and at the important 50% marker.
(I would not want to be Chris Christie if Obama somehow squeaks out a win.)
I still think Obama is in a bad place at 47.6% with 3 days to go. And I think the Sandy bump will decipitate over the weekend - as more anger builds up in NY/NJ, Lybia scandal drips out more, and the UE increase (to 7.9%) makes it way past the media filter.
I mean a couple tenths of a point brings this back to a 2 point lead. I think/pray we will see Romney back up to a 2-3 point lead in final poll on Monday.
My Faith will be tested if Obama wins four more years.
People are hyperventilating over a few small point movements either way. The fundamentals of the race have not changed.
For god sakes, Reagan was down by 6 points with a week to go against Reagan in 1980. I’d hate to know what this board would have looked like in those circumstances.
Nonsense. If you aren’t part of the “Romney Landslide ZOMG!!!” squad then you are obviously a “concern troll” and an “Eeyore”. /sarc
The kool-aid drinkers around here back in 2008 assured us that even though enthusiam for Bonzo was sky-high, all the polls were wrong and McCain would surely win. Now these same mathematical geniuses tell us that any poll they don’t like is “D+4” or “D+9” or “D+infinity” and therefore Romney is not losing, he’s winning, and furthermore he is winning BIG!!!
Remember “Operation Chaos”? Remember the “PUMAs”? They weren’t going to vote for Bonzo, no sirree; enough of them would cross over to pull McCain across the finish line and “Broken Glass” Republicans would be in there helping to save America too.
Didn’t quite happen that way, did it?
The fact is that the 2012 race is very close because the 47% welfare animals are a LOCK for Bonzo. That leaves very little margin for Romney to work with. The fact is that the puppetmasters who control the media and the Democratic party (and the voting machines, and the judges who will order polls to stay open to facilitate as much vote fraud as necessary) are not about to let America’s first melanin-enhanced President get UN-elected. No chance.
It would be great if next Tuesday night brings back ecstatic memories of 1994, or even 2010. It’s FAR more likely to be a rerun — a little closer perhaps, but still the same outcome — as 2008.
All this last-minute drama and yet early voting shows Romney up 52 -45. Who is answering the phones on these voter polls? The early voting tallies are taken from actual results based on local area codes.
Just vote! I did yesterday in very Blue Palm Beach County, FL. The crowd was very pro-Romney, anti-Obama, and lots of signs about Benghazi. The Jewish Republicans, never a presence around here, were very active at the Boca Raton City Hall where we had early voting.
Folks, trust your gut. This country is a mess, and even Obama’s supporters, for all their hatred of anything conservative, admit they are disappointed. They know Obama has no answers, only disdain for our values. This ship is sailing and Obama is left at the dock. We are going to win!
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