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Bellweather States

Posted on 11/02/2012 3:14:46 PM PDT by Reagan‹berAlles

In the United States, Nevada has produced the same outcome as the national results in every presidential election beginning in 1912, except in 1976, thus voting for the winner 96.0% of the time. Ohio is the second closest with a match rate of 93.1%. Missouri, often referred to as the Missouri bellwether, was for many years the best match of the national results, but since 2008 is now third closest with a 92.6% match rate.

The American bellwether states (with respect to presidential elections) currently are:

Nevada - 1 miss (1976) from 1912 on (96.0%, slightly "too Republican"). VERY SLIGHT OBAMA LEAD NOW

Ohio - 2 misses (1944, 1960) from 1896 on (93.1%, slightly "too Republican"). Currently the longest perfect streak. ESSENTIALLY A TIE NOW

Missouri - 2 misses (1956, 2008) from 1904 on (92.6%, "neutral"). HUGE ROMNEY LEAD NOW

New Mexico - 2 misses (1976, 2000) from 1912 on (92%, "neutral"). The state of New Mexico voted for the winner of the popular vote in 2000. SUBSTANTIAL OBAMA LEAD NOW

Florida - 2 misses (1960, 1992) from 1928 on (90.5%, slightly "too Republican"). SLIGHT ROMNEY LEAD NOW

Tennessee - 2 misses (1960, 2008) from 1928 on (90.5%, slightly "too Republican"). HUGE ROMNEY LEAD NOW

Delaware - 2 misses (2000, 2004) from 1952 on (86.7%, slightly "too Democratic"). The state of Delaware voted for the winner of the popular vote in 2000. HUGE OBAMA LEAD NOW

In addition, the Territory of Guam has had no misses from 1984 on (100.0%). Guam has no electoral college votes, but conducts a straw vote on local election day.

Also of note, in every presidential election from 1992 through 2008, Iowa's popular vote margin was within 2.55 percentage points of the national popular vote result.[7]


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: delaware; florida; guam; iowa; missouri; nevada; newmexico; ohio; tennessee

1 posted on 11/02/2012 3:14:47 PM PDT by Reagan‹berAlles
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To: Reagan√úberAlles

But unlike in the past Nevada is 50% wetback today.So,in other words,all bets are off when it comes to that state.


2 posted on 11/02/2012 3:19:51 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: Reagan√úberAlles

That would be ‘bellwether’ states, as in the lead goats wearing bells.


3 posted on 11/02/2012 3:26:04 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: Gay State Conservative

I agree in that the populace has changed. Also the SEIU has co-opted most of the labor vote. Nevada has changed.


4 posted on 11/02/2012 3:26:30 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: Reagan√úberAlles

meaningless.

intelligent people understand Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

this you must carry Ohio Tommyrot is nonsense.


5 posted on 11/02/2012 3:37:25 PM PDT by freedumb2003 (We can’t just leave it (food choice) up to the parents. -- moochele obozo 2/12/2012 (cnsnews))
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks R.

In about a week we’ll be needing a few new “bellwethers”.


6 posted on 11/02/2012 4:26:33 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Reagan√úberAlles; Impy; InterceptPoint; Gophack; randita; Political Junkie Too; Slings and Arrows; .
Good history lesson there, but the most relevant of those states in this particular election is Ohio, which is why the Romney folks are focusing on it like a laser beam.

With Ohio, a Romney win nationally is a virtual certainty. Without Ohio, he probably needs both Wisconsin and Colorado to get him over the hump.

7 posted on 11/02/2012 6:33:17 PM PDT by justiceseeker93
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To: Gay State Conservative

More like 25%, “Hispanic”, in total.


8 posted on 11/05/2012 2:53:19 AM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Reagan√úberAlles; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; justiceseeker93; SunkenCiv

Nevada at this point I would say is slightly more democrat than the nation. Still a decent bellweather.

New Mexico, this time at least looks like it’s for Obama and not a bellweather.

Missouri is now too Republican to be bellweather

TN is way too Republican.

Delaware is way too democrat.

Ohio and Florida are the best and biggest remaining (not just to go with the winner but more importantly to reflect something similar to the national popular vote) bellweathers, both of them especially Florida are a little more Republican than the country. I’d add Virginia to that list as it is now less Republican than it has been.

A Republican winning in the near future without Florida is highly unlikely, put another way if the dem wins Florida you know the dem has won.


9 posted on 11/05/2012 3:03:21 AM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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To: Reagan√úberAlles; fieldmarshaldj; AuH2ORepublican; justiceseeker93; SunkenCiv

Please disregard my incorrect spelling of the word in question. ;)


10 posted on 11/05/2012 3:04:04 AM PST by Impy (Don't call me red.)
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