Skip to comments.Bellweather States
Posted on 11/02/2012 3:14:46 PM PDT by Reagan‹berAlles
In the United States, Nevada has produced the same outcome as the national results in every presidential election beginning in 1912, except in 1976, thus voting for the winner 96.0% of the time. Ohio is the second closest with a match rate of 93.1%. Missouri, often referred to as the Missouri bellwether, was for many years the best match of the national results, but since 2008 is now third closest with a 92.6% match rate.
The American bellwether states (with respect to presidential elections) currently are:
Nevada - 1 miss (1976) from 1912 on (96.0%, slightly "too Republican"). VERY SLIGHT OBAMA LEAD NOW
Ohio - 2 misses (1944, 1960) from 1896 on (93.1%, slightly "too Republican"). Currently the longest perfect streak. ESSENTIALLY A TIE NOW
Missouri - 2 misses (1956, 2008) from 1904 on (92.6%, "neutral"). HUGE ROMNEY LEAD NOW
New Mexico - 2 misses (1976, 2000) from 1912 on (92%, "neutral"). The state of New Mexico voted for the winner of the popular vote in 2000. SUBSTANTIAL OBAMA LEAD NOW
Florida - 2 misses (1960, 1992) from 1928 on (90.5%, slightly "too Republican"). SLIGHT ROMNEY LEAD NOW
Tennessee - 2 misses (1960, 2008) from 1928 on (90.5%, slightly "too Republican"). HUGE ROMNEY LEAD NOW
Delaware - 2 misses (2000, 2004) from 1952 on (86.7%, slightly "too Democratic"). The state of Delaware voted for the winner of the popular vote in 2000. HUGE OBAMA LEAD NOW
In addition, the Territory of Guam has had no misses from 1984 on (100.0%). Guam has no electoral college votes, but conducts a straw vote on local election day.
Also of note, in every presidential election from 1992 through 2008, Iowa's popular vote margin was within 2.55 percentage points of the national popular vote result.
But unlike in the past Nevada is 50% wetback today.So,in other words,all bets are off when it comes to that state.
That would be ‘bellwether’ states, as in the lead goats wearing bells.
I agree in that the populace has changed. Also the SEIU has co-opted most of the labor vote. Nevada has changed.
intelligent people understand Post hoc ergo propter hoc.
this you must carry Ohio Tommyrot is nonsense.
In about a week we’ll be needing a few new “bellwethers”.
With Ohio, a Romney win nationally is a virtual certainty. Without Ohio, he probably needs both Wisconsin and Colorado to get him over the hump.
More like 25%, “Hispanic”, in total.
Nevada at this point I would say is slightly more democrat than the nation. Still a decent bellweather.
New Mexico, this time at least looks like it’s for Obama and not a bellweather.
Missouri is now too Republican to be bellweather
TN is way too Republican.
Delaware is way too democrat.
Ohio and Florida are the best and biggest remaining (not just to go with the winner but more importantly to reflect something similar to the national popular vote) bellweathers, both of them especially Florida are a little more Republican than the country. I’d add Virginia to that list as it is now less Republican than it has been.
A Republican winning in the near future without Florida is highly unlikely, put another way if the dem wins Florida you know the dem has won.
Please disregard my incorrect spelling of the word in question. ;)
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