Posted on 11/02/2012 3:50:04 PM PDT by stroll
Starting with the best available source of trend data and adding a bit of thought and analysis, I come up with the following conclusions.
First, the reasoning:
The Northeast: The Northeast is a solid Democratic Party stronghold, and with the growth of the Northern Virginia suburbs has expanded to include that state in its political orbit.The South: The South remains mostly Republican. However, Hurricane Sandy exerts a strong political impact here, giving President Obama an opportunity to display his leadership chops while reminding people of Dubya's inept handling of Katrina. This effect isn't great enough to tip the Gulf States, but does point toward a repeat Democratic victory in Florida and (possibly) North Carolina.
The Midwest: Mitt Romney's "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" editorial hurt him badly in the Rust Belt; his ill-considered attempt to weasel his way out of the situation with a fact-check-fail ad compounded the damage. Indiana is an idiosyncratic Red patch in this Blue field, though Mourdoch's shot from the lip just might inflict spillover damage on the rest of the GOP ticket.
The Plains: The Plains states are a solid GOP stronghold. One possible wild card is Missouri, where Akin may have damaged the party brand as well sinking his own candidacy. Nebraska's split electoral system allows Omaha to tilt its district Blue, as in 2008.
The Mountain West: A GOP stronghold, as usual. (Alaska included in this group). The wild card is whether Colorado aligns with this group or with the Southwest (see below).
The Southwest: The growing Hispanic vote, combined with GOP hostilty on the immigration issue, is tilting the Southwest bluer. Arizona is probably still red, but without a native-son advantage such as the party had in 2008 this is less certain.
The Pacific Coast: A Democratic Party stronghold, as usual. (Hawaii included in this group)
The results of this calculation come out as follows:
GOP Best-Case Scenario
GOP Worst-Case Scenario
IBTZ
I’m not familiar with that acronym.
Of course you’re not.
You’re not from around here are you?
Rot in hades liberal troll.
Stroll, Oct 24, 2012. Welcome aboard new guy. Troll.
If I were Jim Robinson... I WOULD FLUSH YOU LIKE A TURD... YOU TURD TROLL!
LLS
WORST CASE GOP SCENARIO:
Keep the House comfortably
Pick up one Senate seat
Obama gets 272 electoral votes, while losing the popular vote (R 50, O 48)
BEST GOP CASE:
No real losses in the House
Pick up four Senate seats
Romney wins more than 325 electoral votes, wins popular vote 53-47
You seem to have a crystal ball to look at the future. Do you have one showing or telling of unique methods that are being used in the “GOTV” efforts? If so could you share some of them with us?
I think I’ll go with Newt Gingrich and Michael Barone, both who believe Romney will win.
I can’t imagine why you’d be posting something like this unless you are trolling. You just decided to pull something out of your behind and post it. Maybe you’re just bored tonight and want to stir up trouble.
Chris Matthews, is that you? Bye stroll the troll. You will be crying like a little wuss on election day.
There is not ONE state of the former Confederacy or whom sent troops to fight in the Confederate States Army (save for Maryland) that will go for Mr. Obama this cycle. Take that to the bank.
Now look Chris, I mean “Stroll,” I’m gonna get a thrill up my leg on election night when they carry you off in a straitjacket.
Obama could win, but unless there is massive voter fraud, the margin should be a lot closer.
Nate Silver? Is that you?
crystal ball? Don’t need a crystal ball to see that you are an idiot in need of professional help
A huge load of crap was spewed via this statement
“The South remains mostly Republican. However, Hurricane Sandy exerts a strong political impact here, giving President Obama an opportunity to display his leadership chops while reminding people of Dubya’s inept handling of Katrina. This effect isn’t great enough to tip the Gulf States, but does point toward a repeat Democratic victory in Florida and (possibly) North Carolina. “
GOP worst case
GOP best case
I predict that by 12 AM ET liberals all across this country will have to make the decision to either commit suicide or do the unthinkable: take a shower and get a damn job.
Oh goodie we get to Zot a troll.
I see Obama golfing in Hawaii for the next four years. buh bye
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