Skip to comments.Nate Silver - The back tracking/CYA has begun!!!
Posted on 11/04/2012 8:52:31 AM PST by Perdogg
And the walkback continues. RT @fivethirtyeight: We have Obama as ~80% likely to win EC if pop. vote is a tie. 98% if O+1. 30% if R+1.
LOL Wow! The omniscient, infallible Nate Silver is really now saying this??? After ALL this time of projecting supreme confidence that Obama had this election in the bag???
As Rush would say... “They’re worried, folks. They’re REALLY worried!”
This guy should go back to predicting baseball matches. There is not going to be a tie of the popular vote. His entire model is a joke.
Trying to let the DU crowd down easy after they easily swallowed Silver’s hook line and sinker for months.
Intrade has moved 1 pt since I checked this morning.
Prediction: Obama will win if he wins 270 or more electoral college votes and lose if he doesn’t get that.
Let me tell you something about this intrade business.
I can tell you right now that all this wagering on Obama is coming from overseas.
The reason I know this is because offshore wagering outlet 5dimes had Obama at -330 meaning you have to put up 330$ to win 100$ (huge favorite).
You don’t build billion dollar palaces in Vegas because the public are smart bettors.
Bleacher, I’ve been saying this on and off for the last few weeks and immediately get attacked as a troll. Rasmussen has been really good some years and really really bad in other years.
Hopefully he is really good this year, but to many Freepers here essentially ignore some of his bad years as if they didn’t happen.
What? There is no walk back by Nate the Great. He has Obama with a 85.1% chance of winning today, Obama’s highest since the first debate. My Tuesday night will be spent on MSNBC and 538 blog. I cannot wait to watch their little totalitarian world explode.
I think Silver is the only Pollster/Predictor that Axlerod hasn’t sent a sawed off Horses head to. Note all the Polls are basically even. Everyone will claim that we just didn’t see the voter gap enthusiasm for the Repubs.
So you just signed up today to tell us how concerned you are?
Your post lists nine states. Ras correctly called the winner in seven, and had one tie that went for Obama. That’s not too bad so why freak out?
Because Rass was the most accurate in 2008. Yes, he was off but less off then every other pollster.
Ah see, another DU troll spreading disinformation in the vain hope it will change reality.
bleacherbum1969 Since Nov 4, 2012
Gabba gabba hey. Not.
But I know don't bother the Freeper Eeyore choir with inconvenient facts
Rasmussen and Pew were tied for best in 2008. They were both dead on nationally. This year, Rasmussen is adjusting to a +3D turnout. This is contrary to his own polling that finds there are more Republicans than Democrats now. He is predicting Republicans will not turn out at the same rate as Democrats in 2012. I predict he is wrong. McCain was viewed as an old, cantankerous, Bush-cloned Washington insider. That was partly unfair, but that is how he was viewed. Obama was viewed as a genius rock-star preaching hope-n-change. This year is different. Obama has a record he must run on and Romney is a far better candidate than McCain.
Rasmussen was off nationally by only 0.5% in 2008. That’s pretty good.
Really nice comparison here. Scroll down the page for the pollster results. (Also has Intrade results) http://electoralmap.net/2012/2008_election.php
2008 polling analysis
Thank you, glad to see someone reads instead of just jumping in with an emotion based opinion. The changes Silver has made are by a tenth or hundredth of a percent - still with the same results.
Rass was the most accurate in 2008. Gallup didn’t do very well.
Rass did very poorly in 2010.
That’s my concern.
We’re here saying Gallup is the cat’s meow, yet they got a “C” in 2008. Rass got a “C” in 2010 but an “A” in 2008. PPP and Quinipiac both got B+’s in 2010 but did poorly in 2008.
I don’t think anyone knows what is going to happen. Rasmussen has this election tied right now...I’m hoping Gallup is the one that is correct because basically they are saying the enthusiasm gap is going to win the day for Mitt.
Maybe he pulls this out, but right now Rass and others are looking like they were wrong. And yet I’m the “freeper Eeyore” for simply calling it out and not drinking the Romney landslide stuff? Uhm, ok.