Skip to comments.Vanity: Understanding the numbers.
Posted on 11/07/2012 2:31:08 AM PST by Frapster
I spent a lot of time following the interpretations that many on here had been offering in regards to the polls. They made sense and that appeals to the Spock side of me. Yes, I'm a nerd. I'm looking for those who are interested in understanding why our interpretation of the polls failed to begin sharing their continued observations.
I believe we can't know where to point the fingers until we at least understand why our assessments didn't pan out like they seemed to indicate they would.
Figure out why Intrade had Obama +40 Nov 6 and you might have the answer.
Not sure what you’re asking.
I hate to sound like a conspiracy nut, but right 12 million fewer votes were cast
I don’t want to sound like one either which is why I want to get to the heart of the numbers before I start jumping to conclusions.
Lol... Before I come to any conclusions. Trying to not ‘jump to conclusions.’
I’d been pretty skeptical of the interpretations I was seeing bandied about on here and elsewherebut I didn’t have anything quantitative to back that skepticism, other than an overall intuition that the electoral demographics of the country had slid decisively in Ø’s favor.
If there are reliable #s anywhere that show trends in party affiliation over the past few decades, that might be a clue.
I have a hard time believing that the turnout was less than ‘08.
2008 was unusually high for the first black prez hopey changey history thingy.
2012 saw Obama’s votes go down by a few million but still more than Romney.
Less enthusiasm for Obama but not enough to erase his built in lead.
It went down a total of about 12 million voters from 2008.
Maybe only allowing property owners to vote would be a solution to this mess ...
If we don’t have enough support to control the executive we certainly will never have enough to modify or in anyway limit the franchise.
“Maybe only allowing property owners to vote would be a solution to this mess ...”
Those in power will now abolish personal property so, there goes that idea...
I was absolutely sure we would win by at least 2.5 ... and those assumptions were based on hard numbers.
So my question for myself is ... what is the missing piece of data, or what was the wrong assumption?
I suspect, being from MA, having watched Romney for a long time ... and because I like him, what I underestimated was his lack of appeal in terms of non-political types actually going out and voting.
I’m not surprised by Obama’s final tally, but I am surprised ours was so low.
Maybe, if voting wasn’t an effort, the statistics would have been right. If that’s the case, then the country got what it deserves.