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To: sockhead
Yeah, Morris goofed alright, and his predictions are often the kiss of death. Nevertheless, one polling outfit got it just as wrong, yet had a sterling record of accuracy before yesterday. I'm speaking of the University of Colorado group whose model had predicted every presidential election since 1980.

Both last May and last August they were predicting a solid Romney victory:

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”
So even the guys who had never missed a call (even in 2000 they got the Gore/popular vote vs Bush/electoral vote correct), blew it.
24 posted on 11/07/2012 7:45:20 PM PST by ishmac (Lady Thatcher:"There are no permanent defeats in politics because there are no permanent victories.)
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To: ishmac

I’m not one for conspiracy theories, but when you look at those predictions from reliable sources, and the long, long lines at the polling centers....how did the vote come out millions less than 2008 and in favor of Obama?

People were still voting at midnight in Florida and Virginia, yet the final voter turnout was 10% less than 2008? Makes me wonder.


28 posted on 11/07/2012 8:03:05 PM PST by sockhead (Socialism: trickle up poverty.)
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To: ishmac

Don’t forget the Redskins rule.


39 posted on 11/07/2012 8:58:15 PM PST by ari-freedom (Election Day should be after Thanksgiving, not right after Halloween)
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