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Who on our side got it right?

Posted on 11/16/2012 4:43:57 PM PST by VA Voter

Who on our side nailed the polls and got it right before the election? I want to know where to send my money. The @$$holes who kept telling us that they were overpolling democrats were wrong, wrong, wrong. I love Rush but he blew it. Is there anyone we can trust?


TOPICS: Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: voterfraud

1 posted on 11/16/2012 4:43:57 PM PST by VA Voter
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To: VA Voter

The top 5 polls in order of accuracy.

IDB/TIPP
Google Consumer Surveys
Mellman
Rand Corporation
CNN


2 posted on 11/16/2012 4:47:11 PM PST by Melas (u)
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To: VA Voter

Me.


3 posted on 11/16/2012 4:48:23 PM PST by muawiyah
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To: VA Voter

I got it right! No matter what the polls reported, I asssumed Obama would win due to voter fraud.


4 posted on 11/16/2012 4:50:11 PM PST by toldyou (Even if the voices aren't real, they have some pretty good ideas.)
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To: VA Voter

Sarah Palin in my opinion.

It was obvious that she was not enthusiastic about supporting Romney and it was also obvious that she knew he was the pick before the primaries had even began.

The GOPe will NEVER allow her to run as a Republican, so not sure where that leaves her.

Her SarahPac supported several winners so that’s where my money will go in the future.

Unlike the GOP that campaigned hard for Romney and are now throwing him under the bus, I have never seen her to that to anyone. She is loyal to a fault (maybe a little too loyal to McCain...lol).

She says what I feel and believe and that is important to me.


5 posted on 11/16/2012 4:51:02 PM PST by BamaBelle
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To: VA Voter

The problem started when Ann Coulter began supporting Mittens as the “most conservative” candidate in the GOP field...


6 posted on 11/16/2012 4:53:00 PM PST by Hotlanta Mike ("God only knows it's not what we would choose to do." - Lyric from Us and Them - Pink Floyd)
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To: VA Voter
A longtime conservative office holder and campaigner taught me to trust the polls. But this cycle I drank the cool-aid. Never again.

You could see on Brit's face when Fox signed on he had seen the exit poll data and it did not look good.

7 posted on 11/16/2012 4:54:46 PM PST by colorado tanker
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To: VA Voter

I turned Rush off today. IMO, he’s losing his edge.


8 posted on 11/16/2012 4:55:30 PM PST by moondoggie
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To: VA Voter

The ones who predicted the massive voter fraud and those who sat out the GOP primary in disgust.


9 posted on 11/16/2012 4:56:09 PM PST by GBA (Here in the Matrix, life is but a dream.)
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To: VA Voter

A number of prominent people have egg on their face due to their predictions regarding this recent race; i.e. Rush, Rove, Morris, Hannity, etc.


10 posted on 11/16/2012 4:58:20 PM PST by AEMILIUS PAULUS (It is a shame that when these people give a riot)
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To: VA Voter

We all predicted it until the first debate gave many of us unwarranted hope.


11 posted on 11/16/2012 4:59:45 PM PST by Mr. Jeeves (CTRL-GALT-DELETE)
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To: VA Voter

Rush didn’t reckon the level of voter fraud we had in this election. In fact, he doesn’t like to entertain conspiracy theories, such as rigged voting machines in the swing states. Just look at the run-around Allen West has been getting in Florida. - Rush has diagnosed the reason for Obama’s re-election . . uh, I mean ol’ Baracka Claus’s re-election. You can’t beat Santa Claus.


12 posted on 11/16/2012 5:00:10 PM PST by Twinkie (Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.)
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To: VA Voter

So you think the Dem +8 and more polls were right? Take another look. Zero didn’t win by 8 or more. Subtract the fraud and he doesn’t even win.


13 posted on 11/16/2012 5:00:20 PM PST by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: wastoute

Exactly. many of them go it right except they didn’t factor in the massive fraud.


14 posted on 11/16/2012 5:01:26 PM PST by riri (Plannedopolis-look it up. It's how the elites plan for US to live.)
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To: VA Voter

No one got it right!

Because no one calculated the massive amount of fraud that took place.

(I do think the media knew in advance that this would be the most fraudulent election in US history.)

15 posted on 11/16/2012 5:03:15 PM PST by Ron C.
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To: Mr. Jeeves

That debate was odd. Obama didn’t even try; looked absolutely “craven”. What was going on around that time? Of course, the affirmative action President has always had the skids greased for him; he was awfully cocky when he assured Medvedev he’d have more “flexibility” after he was re-elected. I feel like I live in Denmark; and there’s something rotten in it.


16 posted on 11/16/2012 5:05:32 PM PST by Twinkie (Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.)
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To: VA Voter

I put the Margin of Fraud at 2-3%.

I might have low-balled that a bit.


17 posted on 11/16/2012 5:06:48 PM PST by digger48
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To: AEMILIUS PAULUS

Remember Rove skimmed the donations for his own benefit.... and that little toe-sucker Morris has a book-a-week to feather his nest..... A pox on both of them.


18 posted on 11/16/2012 5:10:20 PM PST by ptsal (E)
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To: VA Voter
Even though I used Rasmussen polls, I put the chance of Romney winning at 45%. A few more points of separation in some swing state polls and his odds would be down to 20%.

-PJ

19 posted on 11/16/2012 5:17:09 PM PST by Political Junkie Too (If you are the Posterity of We the People, then you are a Natural Born Citizen.)
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To: VA Voter

It’s somebody else who gets it right every time. That’s because polls are nothing but hocus pocus.


20 posted on 11/16/2012 5:20:08 PM PST by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: VA Voter

I’m not sure who’s side he’s on, but, Larry Sabato. Dude’s always right. He had zer0 ahead the whole way & called it for him on Monday. Of course, being a professor he understands the number & effects of illegal Democrat votes.


21 posted on 11/16/2012 5:25:26 PM PST by AzCountry
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To: moondoggie

At times today Rush was incoherent. He kept plugging Jake Tapper’s book while he made a rumbling, stumbling explanation of Tapper’s comment about the Libyan attack. It made no sense.


22 posted on 11/16/2012 5:46:39 PM PST by Oklahoma
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To: Oklahoma

And I was just getting set to see today’s Ditto Cam broadcast. Does not sound like it is worth watching....or maybe a few belts and I’ll tune it in anyway. I usually watch it live but I missed it this morning.


23 posted on 11/16/2012 6:06:29 PM PST by bobby.223 (Retired up in the mountains of the American Redoubt and it's a GREAT life!)
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To: toldyou
I got it right! No matter what the polls reported, I asssumed Obama would win due to voter fraud.

I did too. I remember somebody asked Rush on the phone if he had considered voter fraud for 2012 back around 2009. Rush said conservative and independents will turn out in mass and voter fraud won't matter.

24 posted on 11/16/2012 7:00:26 PM PST by BerryDingle (I know how to deal with communists, I still wear their scars on my back from Hollywood-Ronald Reagan)
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To: Ron C.

No one got it right!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~`

Not true. And all you “I got it right” FReepers may be correct. If you listened to some Freeper whose nic I can’t recall.

Seriesly. Some FReeper named Mercer was dead on. Someone help me out here. WHO am I thinking of?

What he did was simply look at census data from 2010 and Voila!

He nailed it.


25 posted on 11/16/2012 7:21:04 PM PST by Responsibility2nd (NO LIBS. This Means Liberals and (L)libertarians! Same Thing. NO LIBS!!)
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To: VA Voter

There's a whooooole lotta fraud goin on in there!

26 posted on 11/16/2012 7:21:21 PM PST by BerryDingle (I know how to deal with communists, I still wear their scars on my back from Hollywood-Ronald Reagan)
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To: Responsibility2nd

Woo Hoo. I kept digging. And I found my own answer.

jackmercer

http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/by:jackmercer/index?tab=comments;brevity=full;options=no-change

Check out his posts. And posts by others who agree. jackmercer was dead on.


27 posted on 11/16/2012 7:24:04 PM PST by Responsibility2nd (NO LIBS. This Means Liberals and (L)libertarians! Same Thing. NO LIBS!!)
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To: Responsibility2nd
He wasn't dead on - he was dead wrong, unless he predicted the huge amount of fraud that is known to have taken place.

Just because someone comes up with a number that matches what the fraudulent media says is true does not mean the information was or is correct.

28 posted on 11/16/2012 7:48:27 PM PST by Ron C.
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To: Responsibility2nd; jackmercer

Jack,

I read the FR link provided by Resposibility2nd and you seem to have “gotten it’.

It would be greatly appreciated if you would explain what you did, in layman’s terms. Why does your type of analysis work?

Thanks;


29 posted on 11/17/2012 4:51:55 AM PST by VA Voter
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To: Responsibility2nd; jackmercer

Jack,

I read the FR link provided by Resposibility2nd and you seem to have “gotten it’.

It would be greatly appreciated if you would explain what you did, in layman’s terms. Why does your type of analysis work?

Thanks;


30 posted on 11/17/2012 4:52:03 AM PST by VA Voter
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To: VA Voter

Given the very high likelihood that the 2012 election was stolen through massive voter fraud, NO ONE GOT IT RIGHT! Our Republic has been destroyed, and too many are more worried about which pollsters had the right stuff.


31 posted on 11/17/2012 2:01:48 PM PST by SoldierDad (Proud dad of an Army Soldier who has survived 24 months of Combat deployment.)
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To: VA Voter

This was my exact call before the election:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2955102/posts?page=117#117

You can read through my posts over the last two weeks to get a better idea of how I did this and also how I address the “voter fraud” nonsense argument....that issue just comes down to occam’s razor

Basically, after Romney won the primary, I started really digging into the demographics and questioned the assumption by the so-called tv, radio and print professionals, both conservative and liberal, regarding the idea that 2008 was special, different or an anomaly vis-a-vis the minority and female voting patterns of that year.

The political meme of both sides was that 2008 was a unique situation given that it was the first black candidate to win a major party primary. Then I started hearing most on the right say that the polls are being weighted improperly toward the democrats (2010 midterms were supposedly evidence of this) and knowing that 2010 was a midterm election which gives republicans an advantage, I tried to quantify this assumption.

That then brought me to the 2010 census where I started pouring over the 2010 census briefs released by the US Census Bureau in 2011. After a lot of comparisons to 2000, I came to a staggering conclusion: a democrat could win with only 38% of the white vote...I was pretty stunned by this, that was staggering. Obama got like 43-44% of the white vote in 2008 which meant he had breathing room to lose more white voters! Here’s the best synopsis of the data I was looking at:

http://2010.census.gov/news/releases/operations/cb11-cn125.html

Basically, as the csmonitor put it: “primacy of white male voters has passed”

So I began with a simple but unverifiable assumption, ie, let’s assume that each race/sex of voter turns out in equal percentages. Meaning if 60% of whites turn out, then 60% of latinos, asians and blacks would turn out. Since Obama’s team targeted latinos with the children of illegals executive action, the black vote was tied up and Obama was making an argument to appeal to manufacturing voters in the rust belt, I figured this assumption was shaping up.

The numbers lined up nicely. If you compare the census numbers in the link above to the actual turnout, it was spooky how much they mirror one another. For example, 72% of the population, according to the census 2010 is white and 72% of voters on Nov. 6th were white. Same for black population and turnout, 13%.

The country was changing at a steady NON-WHITE pace since 2010 and I concluded that based on demographics, the 2008 dem advantage was NOT an anomaly!

Next I looked at the outlier since it was such an easy target, Gallup. They were assuming 78% of the electorate would be white.....and there was the red flag. Next I looked at Rasmussen who was getting dem sample numbers in his surveys and bending the number to match his own assumptions , a really bad idea for any pollster but in light of the new demographic makeup of the US and therefore the electorate, these guys had NO idea what they were doing. Conclusion: throw gallup and Rasmussen polls in the trash.

So I started looking at other national polls who when they sampled 1000 people and 38% said they were dems and 32% said they were republicans, actually kept those numbers in the poll....I have written PAGES on the BS argument of skewing polls based on party ID and how ridiculous that is to anyone that has the slightest idea of how sampling in science, politics, marketing, etc works.

Anyway...I started looking at these national and the state polls that released internal data and formed a nice little model and weighted them according to my own assumptions. Were their demographic data plausible in light of new census data. If they fell within a certain range, I kept them and then weighted according to automated phone, live interviews, cell phones included and if so what percentage, internet poll.

As I posted many times before, I messed up on a few things as evidenced by my Obama +1.8% result and Obama getting 290EV and possibly 303EV. In hindsight I can see that compared to people like Nate Silver, I feel like a 5th grader doing arithmetic while he’s doing calculus.

But keep in mind I was living in the same world as most people on FR. I was being bombarded by pundits, columnists, tv interviews and radio personalities that were making me doubt everything I was doing. I can’t express how difficult it was to not only come to the conclusion I saw on my screen but actually post it here and stick to it. But as a person that had to take graduate level statistics and learn to look at data objectively in very biased circumstances, I was 99% sure that I was right with regard to the data even though people around here were throwing rotten tomatoes at me left and right.

I think if I weren’t in the conservative worldview, I may have allowed myself to believe the Colorado and Florida numbers and been more accurate with my final projection....but being human, I may have threw out or improperly weighed some polls based on my conservative heart...after all, do you have any idea how hard it is to weigh a Daily Kos poll so high as a conservative? Turns out they were dead on, one of the most accurate polls...but it’s a hell of a lot easier to swallow after the fact than before.

I know that’s long but I hope it helps answer your question.


32 posted on 11/19/2012 12:00:09 AM PST by jackmercer
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To: jackmercer

Jack,

Thank you for your thoughtful reply. I’ve been too busy to read through it carefully yet. I will get back to you in a day or so.

VA


33 posted on 11/20/2012 6:50:52 AM PST by VA Voter
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