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U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook [Most of the Rockies Dry as a Bone and Getting Worse.]
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service ^ | 15NOV2012 | A. Artusa, NOAA

Posted on 11/22/2012 4:25:58 PM PST by familyop

TOPICS: Agriculture; Business/Economy; Weather
KEYWORDS: colorado; drought; resort; ski
Drier and warmer winter predicted for the central Rockies and other areas through February. Colorado, for one, continues to be extremely dry. Peaks are very nearly bare.
1 posted on 11/22/2012 4:26:04 PM PST by familyop
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To: familyop

Not good.

2 posted on 11/22/2012 4:32:33 PM PST by madison10
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To: familyop

Texas needs Biblical rain. It’s beyond desperate. :(

3 posted on 11/22/2012 4:37:34 PM PST by Sporke (USS Iowa BB-61)
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To: Sporke
Everyone needs to GET Biblical.

God - "When I shut up the heavens so that there is no rain...if My people will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways ....I will... heal their land."

Easy solution really...

4 posted on 11/22/2012 4:45:59 PM PST by NELSON111
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To: Sporke

I moved from West Texas to Central Texas 12 years ago hoping I would actually see more rain.

The first year was like 50 inches. After that, every year it got worse and worse and then it went down to nothing. Lake Travis is so low that artifacts are being found where water used to be.

It’s bad. Really bad.

5 posted on 11/22/2012 4:58:24 PM PST by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal The 16th Amendment!)
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To: unixfox

Just saw the Ken Burn’s special on the Dust Bowl. Total propaganda that humans caused all of it. Fits right in with the environazis/Globull Warming religion.

6 posted on 11/22/2012 6:17:11 PM PST by conservaterian (NOW can we have a conservative candidate?????)
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To: conservaterian

Yes—propaganda. I’ve lived and done agricultural work around both forested areas and other places surrounded by natural prairie. After about the second year of severe drought, natural prairie roots shrivel and break off easily, regardless of depth. Natural prairie will blow away.

I’m not knocking soil conservation through crop rotation, leaving bands of perennials/trees here and there, terracing (illegal in my State due to water rights regulations), and so on. Those are smart practices that will hold moisture, hold top soil, and buffer against shorter droughts. But yes, I’ve seen the false blame from environmentalists on mechanized equipment, human presence, etc. People, doing small agriculture properly, can actually better preserve land and animals against diseases and other natural disasters.

The drought that we’re seeing now, BTW, is more geographically extensive than the dust bowl drought (up to 6,000 feet elevation back then). Now, it’s sweeping over the top of the Great Divide.

My guess is that without enough precipitation during the months to come to stop it, we’ll start seeing dust storms next summer. Saw much more dust in the atmosphere than usual at over 9,000 feet last summer. There’s nearly no visible snow-pack on the peaks now—only thin streaks here and there.

Another two years, and we’ll see the kinds of storms seen during the Dust Bowl era if not sooner. The most severe part of the Dust Bowl drought lasted for about 7 years or more—closer to 8 or 9 years for the whole drought.

Have fun. Enjoy the slide. No doubt, millions have been praying for it and giving thanks.

7 posted on 11/22/2012 7:05:48 PM PST by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of rotten politics smelled around the planet.)
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To: Sporke

Dry as a bone here between Houston and College Station. I was grading some out by the barn and it is just stirring dust. Ground is parched. We have nothing but forest sand and iron ore though and it never does hold moisture.

Either the well is going dry or sanding up because the pump seems to be cavitating.

Supposedly we had “normal” rain here this year but you can’t prove it by me. This month is like October and November 2010. We had the fires the next year.

Pastures at the farm in E. Central Oklahoma are just dust and much bare. We used to have long lingering wet periods in the fall. Not now.

All we can do is pray and suffer and commiserate I suppose. It is bad though and has gone on for almost the last 5 years it seems. Pretty much abnormal in that period so far as I can see.

After leaving Midland, Texas years ago I said I would never complain about rain and I have stuck to my pledge.

8 posted on 11/22/2012 7:11:07 PM PST by Sequoyah101
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To: familyop

Yup. The forbs are deteriorating and breaking off as you state. We have not yet seen plain devastation but we are seeing so many trees die that I wonder what will be left if this persists.

Strangely, south of 290 and back to the south of I-10 but east of the Colorado River here in Texas people cut hay up to 5 times this last summer so there are pockets that are just a little odd.

In Oklahoma we got one cut in the spring. Some tried to cut late fall before frost but it wasn’t worth the diesel. South Central Oklahoma near McAlester but north of Durant made a good second cutting but that was all I saw. The Ouchitas are dry as toast. I saw a guy trying to drill winger pasture in McCurtain County and I don’t think he was much more than scratching the ground. Everybody is trying to drill something in and you can’t find a 10 to 12 foot pasture or no-till drill anywhere around. They sell in less than a week if someone has one.

We tried to plant some rye in 2007 in October. Got a little mist the night after we planted it and no more moisture until spring. Needless to say, nothing came up. We got flooding rains last fall and spring. We have a spring that was reliable back in the 20s and 30s. I cleaned it out with the trackhoe to 10’ deep a couple of years ago. The ground was downright saturated and I felt luck to get out of the area. Now the spring is dry to the bottom. It has been unseasonal for a long time.

9 posted on 11/22/2012 7:26:45 PM PST by Sequoyah101
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To: conservaterian
Woodrow Wilson and the Food Control Act of 1917 added greatly to the disaster. By the government guaranteeing prices for wheat some farmers, and many suitcase farmers who knew next to nothing about farming, plowed up marginal land that most decent farmers knew was not fit to be cultivated. When the price guarantees expired in 1920, and the wheat prices and income dropped, even more land was plowed up in the effort to recover the previous amount of income. Mother nature played along with them through the twenties, but then the natural drought cycle took hold, and dust began to fly. The Dust Bowl was much more the fault of government than it was of the Plains farmer.

Dust storms are part of a natural cycle on the Plains. Major Stephen Long's expedition in 1821 recorded the events and even led to the area being labeled the Great American Desert. We had a relatively small one a few weeks ago that closed I35 in Oklahoma for a few hours. I think it is going to get much worse. Just hold on to your hat!

10 posted on 11/22/2012 7:37:05 PM PST by Jay Redhawk (Zombies are just intelligent, good looking democrats.)
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To: Sequoyah101

I don’t know what to tell you and hope that you get through it. I’m on very high elevation dry land, and the drought will take even the extremely short, tough perennials up here before next summer without the usual spraying ice. Was going to start yaks next spring (even started the slightly higher fencing for those), but holding off is probably a better way to go for now. Only a little over 12 inches of precipitation per year during wetter years (thus, yaks for year-round ranching).

A couple more years to go before the probable effects of solar max during extra fluctuations (north magnetic pole still off near Russia, last I looked—can cause unusual storms but temporary desertification, too) maybe caused by an extended minimum (also includes fluctuation toward warm and dry, sometimes). If we’re blessed, we’ll see increasingly colder but wetter weather after that—maybe in 3 years or so.

Dry land cattle business is shut down from the plains to the higher large mountain basins (seasonal at high elevations, cattle moved to lower elevations during winter). If adequate precipitation (snow pack on peaks, spring snows, etc.) doesn’t happen by May, some wet land operations will start shutting down, too.

11 posted on 11/22/2012 7:56:30 PM PST by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of rotten politics smelled around the planet.)
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To: familyop

Queue up famous climate scientist Algore & his glow-bull warming BS as the culprit in 3, 2, 1...

12 posted on 11/22/2012 9:19:06 PM PST by MCH
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Actually global warming would increase rainfall. The increased temperature over the ocean evaporates more water that then will fall as rain. El Nino in the Pacific (a warming) will increase rain in the United States. La Nina does the opposite.

The dust bowl of the 30s was caused by several years of below temperature norms in the Pacific.

13 posted on 11/22/2012 11:42:45 PM PST by cpdiii (Deckhand, Roughneck, Mud Man, Geologist, Pilot, Pharmacist. THE CONSTITUTION IS WORTH DYING FOR!)
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Right on the mark.

14 posted on 11/23/2012 7:09:40 AM PST by EternalVigilance (America's creed: Our rights come from God, not men. Governments exist to secure those rights.)
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To: Jay Redhawk
The Dust Bowl was much more the fault of government than it was of the Plains farmer.

Government is here to help everyone. Sometime after Wounded Knee, the government issued a cow and a horse to the Sioux Indians on the reservation. By WW1 these people were well on their way to making their living as cowboys. With the high price of wheat, the Indians sold their cattle and rented out the land to wheat farmers. The bottom dropped out of the wheat market and the Indians were without income from growing wheat and had no more cattle to roam on the range and provide them a livelihood.

15 posted on 11/23/2012 6:26:35 PM PST by Western Phil
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