NFL Tiebreaker Status (update after week 15, vanity)

December 16, 2012

[campaignPete R-CT]

I do not have the tiebreaker yet for DAL vs MINN, which comes down to common games. This will simplify after next week when teams are exterminated.

It obviously looks like the winner of PT-CIN in week 16 is golden as is the winner of DAL-WASH in week 17. MN vs CHI likely comes down to final week. INDY would simplify everything with a clinching win vs KC in week 16.

[Windflier]

[Rocky]

Huh?

[campaignPete R-CT]

here is a look at the NFC 9-7 ties, if it ends:

WASH 9-7
DAL 9-7
NYG 9-7

MN 9-7
CHI 9-7

then the winner of WASH-DAL game gets the Division. Let’s say it is WASH. Then DAL gets 2nd place over NYG (div record and/or common games)

MN gets 2nd place over CHI (div record and/or common games)

therefore MN vs DAL for 2nd wildcard. DAL 6-6 conf and MN either 7-5 or 6-6. next tie would go to common games. Common games would be tied (1-4 each, CHI, WA, TB, SEA). So it would go to SOV, if DAL lost to WASH.

[campaignPete R-CT]

yep, NFL tiebreaker lingo is gibberish. Worse that the tax code.

[harpu]

Dal loses to NO, then loses to Wash; Wash beats Phil, then beats Dal...how does that tie break?

[campaignPete R-CT]

NFL tiebreaker ping, if you can handle it

[campaignPete R-CT]

REdskins on a roll, taking the division per harpu

[campaignPete R-CT]

MN leads DAL in SOV 55-53. So it is close and DAL has a chance vs MN in tiebreaker.

Assumes 9-7 and the MN victory is against HOUS. If it is against GB, MN gets it on better conf record.

[Windflier]

yep, NFL tiebreaker lingo is gibberish. Worse that the tax code.

True, but I've got to admit, I admire anyone who can comprehend that stuff.

[Ingtar]

If New Orleans win out, while Minnesota, Chicago, Dallas, and New York (Giants) all lose, I was amazed to find that the Saints win the tie breakers. By all rights, they should have been out of it.

[campaignPete R-CT]

NYG has clinched common over MN 4-1 to 2-3, therefore has clinched tiebreaker.

[campaignPete R-CT]

yep, N.O. and MN would be tied with 6-6 conference record. goes to common games N.O. vs. MN. So N.O. has incentive to beat DAL next week.

NO wins common games over MN 2-3 vs. 1-4

[Perdogg]

All Dallas has to do is win its remaining games (no ties) and Dallas wins the divison.

[campaignPete R-CT]

All Dallas has to do is win its remaining games (no ties) and Dallas wins the divison.

yep, cuz at 9-7, they could get 2nd place, but MN/CHI at 9-7 very likely to beat them out for wildcard. Maybe I should spend some time turning this into a "plain language version".

[catfish1957]

Shocked by the good news for the Texans last night. They get the No. 1 seed by simply winning one of their last two games or NE or Denver losing one their last two games.

[catfish1957]

You mean the Saints aren’t eliminated with all those teams ahead of them? I guess the stars could align in a 1- 1,000,000 event.

[campaignPete R-CT]

Saints 2 x {1 in 2^9} to make the playoffs which is:
2 x 1/(8 x 8 x 8) = 1 in 256. (if every game is 50/50)

yes, HOUS is a strong position with h2h over DEN.

NYJ has common over MI which comes into play only if NYJ 8th win is vs. Buffalo. Would eliminate Miami.

Bender ping.

[campaignPete R-CT]

i was wrong on Saints. It is 1 in 512 or 0.2% which complies with cool standings.
http://coolstandings.com/football/football_standings.asp
use dumb option for every game 50/50.
I had NO with TIE-br over WA and not true. Saints need WA to win the division, allowing Saints to win with Saints having tiebreaker over MN and DAL at 8-8.

[Ingtar]

If the Giants and Cowboys both lose out, Washington does win the division. They would have 9 wins (they play Dallas yet), while New York and Dallas would have 8.