Skip to comments.Spiegel speculates on why global warming stalled
Posted on 01/28/2013 1:52:04 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
This is one of the best mainstream articles I have seen trying to make sense of the point: Why are we not warming? It is rare to see work that tries to cover this much detail and nuance. The great global warming debate might finally be beginning?
GWPF has a translation. Axel Bojanowski has managed to capture a concept that even if global warming has just stalled temporarily the debate about why it has stalled is revealing in its own right. As I said in the Skeptics Handbook, something out there affects our climate more than CO2 and none of the computer models knows what it is.
Researchers Puzzled About Global Warming Standstill
- Date: 18/01/13 Axel Bojanowski, Spiegel Online
How dramatically is global warming really? NASA researchers have shown that the temperature rise has taken a break for 15 years. There are plenty of plausible explanations for why global warming has stalled. However, the number of guesses also shows how little the climate is understood.
Bojanowski calls NASA scientists on their predictions:
it has become common knowledge for some time that the climate has recently developed differently than predicted. The warming has stalled for 15 years; the upward trend in the average global temperature has not continued since 1998 (sic). The standstill has led to the suggestion that global warming has stopped, NASA admit.
Scientists previously thought 14 years without further warming could be brought into line with their forecasts but not 15 years or more, as NASA scientists stated four years ago in the journal Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. In an email to colleagues a renowned scientist wrote on 7 May 2009, at a time when the warming standstill had already lasted for eleven years: the no upward trend has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried.
Now, 15 years without warming has happened. The warming standstill of the global surface temperature shows that the uncertainties of climate predictions are surprisingly large. The interested public anxiously awaits whether the IPCCs new Assessment Report, which is due in September, will address the warming pause the discussions are ongoing in Australias Hobart. The researchers are discussing several cogent reasons that might have slowed the upward trend of temperatures.
Bojanowski does an impressive job: was it the oceans absorbing the heat? Was it the stratosphere; the aerosols over Asia, or the currents in the Pacific? Could it be the influence of solar radiation on clouds, or the influence of water vapor.
Researchers Puzzled About Global Warming Standstill
H/t To Brigid.
The short killer summary: The Skeptics Handbook. The most deadly point: The Missing Hot Spot.
it stalled because people started to understand the sham
Gee could the absence of observable global warming simply mean there never was any global warming?
The SUN, you brilliant GW scientists.
The SUN, you brilliant GW scientists.
The cold weather we just over the past week may bring us some benefits when the spring and summer come; cold weather now may mean fewer bugs later this year.
At a time of bone chilling cold, New York City has gone a full seven days -- from Wednesday to Wednesday -- without a homicide, a statistical anomaly that has helped to pull this year's early killing rate to below where it was during the record-setting 2012.
Even the sun looks puzzled. It looks like it’s scratching it’s head.
Time to haul the huge band of perpetrators of this false science to the gallows.
Super Algore saved Earth from the Sun!
Sure is and it has been going on for millions of years.
It never stalled, it acted just like it should. It was the socialist frauds on the left,who stalled out after pinning their hopes that they could blamed the dreaded industrial gas CO2 as the culprit, for political purposes. When CO2 levels rose and the temp. didn’t, that threw a monkey wrench into their grand plans of bigger government, more regulations and higher taxes.
“Gee could the absence of observable global warming simply mean there never was any global warming?”
No. There has been an overall long trend of global warming since the beginning of the current inter-glacial with shorter episodes of global cooling along the larger uptrend in global warming. Such a global warming has been a natural occurence beyond question in the absence of a human industrial age, and in those time periods in which there have been no humans in existence.
Although there has been a general trend of natural global warming during the current inter-glacial sincee about 10,000 to 12,000 years ago, this warming inter-glacial is occuring during a much longer ice age featuring some of the most dramatic global cooling the Earth has experienced in the last 2.2 billion years, when most of the Earth was covered by an ice sheet on land and sea. The current and ongoing ice age has been going on for about some 20 million years, and the Arctic ice cap has been in existence off and on again over a period of 6 million years or less. The presence of an ice cap in the Arctic is extremely unusual, even during the ice ages of Earth’s past. The current ice age and the Arctic ice cap are apparently due to the gradual thinning of the Earth’s atmosphere.
The Earth’s atmosphere has been underggoing radical changes in mass and composition for the past 4.6 billion years. The Earth’s first atmosphere some 4.6 billion years ago was far far more massive than now, and its was heavily dominated by hydrogen and helium and much lesser amounts of ammonia and meethane. The Earth’s gravity was insufficiently strong to prevent the hydrogen andd helium gases from reaching escape velocity and esacaping the Earth’s gravity into the inter-planeetary space when stripped by the Solar winds. This left behind the Earth’s second atmosphere, which was upwards of 100 times the current mass and atmospheric pressure and composed of nearly all carbon dioxide.
When aerobic lifforms developed about 2.2 billion years ago, the microscopic marine lifeforms began consuming the carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and depositing it into the lithosphere as carbonate compounds and oxygented compounds such as rust or iron oxide. This process continued until the atmospheric mass and pressure was reduced from ~100 atmospheres to the current 1 atmosphere, and the dissociated oxygen built up in conceentration with the other formerly trace concentrations of gas like nitrogen to become the principal components of our present atmosphere.
When aerobic life changed the Earth’s atmosphere from being composed of nearly all carbon dioxidee to small fractions of dioxide and noow miniscule trace amounts of carbon dioxide, a catastrophic global cooling occurred which nearly turned the Earth into an iceball from polee to pole. Eventually, the Sun increased its luminosity, geological weathering changed the environment, and a variety of factors finally brought about a global warming that left the Earth far warmer than at present for thousands of millions of years. The very few ice ages never reached the intensity of the Cryogenian ice age/s, until the current ice age began to rival all but those most ancient ice ages. fr the first time since the Cryogenian, the ice sheets reacched out farther than the other ice ages since the great Cryogenian catastrophe. Why?
The answer to why the current ice age has been so severe is at best arguable, but it hs to be noticed that the Earth is continuing to see a thinning of its atmosphere. This thinning of the atmosphere inevitably results in a loss of heat over time. It remains to be seen how such very long term events as atmospheric loss versus Solar luminosity impacts global climates and variability in the human time frames of 6 million years and less.
Ultimately, the Earth is destined to have no weather and no climate apart from that of inter-planetary space. The Sun will increase its luminosity and size until the Earth’s atmosphere and hydrosphere are vaporized and stripped by Solar winds to be pushed into the outer Solar system and the gravitational attraction of the Jovian planets. Unless the decreasing mass of the Sun changes the orbit of the Earth enough to move outwards towards mars current orbit, the Earth will suffer the same fate as Mercury and Venus, which is their complete vaporization as the Sun grows in size to engulf them.
Now that is GLOBAL WARMING!!!
The stall is very easy to explain.
We know for a fact that the Alarmists destroyed all the raw data up through the 90’s so that no one could analylis their “corrections”.
But with all the attention on the issue now, they can’t keep throwing away all the raw data and they’ve reached the maximums that they can achieve by “correcting” the raw data and by cherry picking the hottest stations. If they try to go any further they risk being proven as being frauds.
That’s why the “warming” trend has stalled.
It is extremely unlikely that man has had NO impact on the climate. Almost as unlikely as the idea that man is having the PRIMARY impact.
The science is not settled as our president and others keep telling us.
The problem is that massive amounts of the data and how the factors affect each other is not even vaguely understood, so are estimated. Another name for "estimate" is "guess." It doesn't matter how thoroughly you crunch the numbers once you input them, modeled "estimates" are just well-presented guesses.
Thought you might to read this link - http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
Milankovitch cycles and a variety of other phenomena such as the Earth’s other orbital mechanics, rotational precession, magnetic pole reversals, lengthening diurnal rotation (longer days), reducing lunar tidal forcings, and so forth represent much smaller and shorter influences when compared to the vastly larger changes in atmospheric mass and composition by inorganic and organic influences. There are for some examples the expression of the Milankovitch cycles in the varves of the Devonian, when the development of the first forests upon the Earth radically increased the concentration of oxygen in the atmosphere while more than halving the already trace amounts of carbon dioxide, which resulted in another major ice age and a mass extinction event. When you are doing geological field work, you can see in the varves how the water levels changed in synchronization with the Milankovitch cycles, but the far larger events ended these sequences with overwhelming changes to the geomorphology, sea levels, and related biosphere. It is always provocative to see the media go on about the Milankovitch cycles in connection to the stages of the curreent ice age while totally neglecting the many other vastly more forceful changes in the Earth’s inherent composition and solar luminosity.
Thank you for your knowledge on the subject! I was up pretty late reading all kinds of different stuff as this was the first I had heard of the Milankovitch cycles. Being an engineer and understanding that nothing is absolute and has some certain tolerance band, i.e. our orbit around the sun, the Earth’s axis tilt, it got me thinking about how these tolerances, coupled with the sunspot cycle, may have affected climate changes in the past. Your additional information is really valuable.
Its also cool that they are studying the same stuff on Mars. Kinda blows a hole in the MAN-MADE theory when man has never set foot on Mars.
Mars and Venus are examples which hold great interest. Hansen, NASA GISS, is notorious for his use of Venus as an example of Earth’s fate if the purported Climate Change is not immediately halted by stopping usage of fossil fuels. His political stance and bogus science are very bizarre indeed when you look at how the atmospheres of Venus, Earth, and Mars deveeloped.
Venus has a truly massive atmosphere dominated by carbon dioxide. This is especially interesting for a number of reasons, including the similarities between the atmosphere of Venus compared to the Early second atmosphere of the Earth. Both atmospheres featured the crushingly massive carbon dioxide atmosphere, but Earth’s biosphere consumed all but trace levels at parts per million of the carbon dioxide and depostied it into the lithosphere and released parts of the oxygen into the atmosphere. On Venus, we can see empirical evidence that the massive carbon dioxide was not consumed by a biosphere and thereby reduced to levels of 1 percent of its early mass and carbon dioxide composition.
When we look at Mars, we again find a planet with a predominately carbon dioxide atmosphere. Unlike Venus, however, Mars lacked the gravity necessary to retain its earlier and more massive atmosphere. The Solar winds have accelerated much of the Martian atmosphere to escape velocity and stripped it off into inter-planetary space. If Mars had ever developed carbon based lifeforms like Earth or provided a home to lifeforms with an origin on the Earth, it would seem most likely any aerobic lifeforms should have consumed and removed all but trace levels of carbon dioxide from the thinning Martian atmosphere. Instead we see today a thinned Martian atmosphere that is still dominated by the carbon dioxide life would have removed.
Speculation would seem to require a proper explanation for how a planet hosting carbon based lifeforms related to the basic chemistries and physics of liquid water and atmospheric dioxide would or could fail to remove nearly all carbon dioxide from a planetary atmosphere?
To find Earth-like life on exoplanets, it would seem likely that the planet must not have a substantial primordial carbon dioxide atmosphere, because the lifeforms would have consumed and removed it from the atmosphere. The biochemistry of the lifeforms seems to require it.
Hansen is also wrong about Venus, when you consider that the massive concentrations of carbon dioxide still result in comparable air temperatures at the higher levels of the Venusian atmosphere where the atmospheric pressure is comparable to Earth’s surface atmospheric pressure.
If the other planets harbor life, it would seem the life would tend to be anaerobic, poisoned by exposures to oxygen.
These videos on YouTube may be of some interest.
Why Mars Died, and Earth Lived
Cosmic Journeys : Mars: World That Never Was .