Skip to comments.Global Warming To Bring Colder/Warmer Winters
Posted on 02/09/2013 11:02:47 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
By Paul Homewood
It seems that every time we get some snow, another scientist is wheeled out to explain that, no matter how cold it gets, it is all down to global warming.
In the last week or so, we have had the International Arctic Research Centre announcing a study by three Chinese scientists, Weakened cyclones, intensified anticyclones and recent extreme cold winter weather events in Eurasia , with the headline Climate change brings colder winters to Europe and Asia. Then, we had WWF Russia blaming the blizzards in Russia on global warming.
But lets, for one moment, remind ourselves of some of the scientists who have said the exact opposite.
UK Met Office
As recently as 2011, Julia Slingo and her team published an extremely thorough paper, Climate: Observations, projections and impacts. Running to some 153 pages, it looked at recent trends and future projections, both for the UK and the rest of the world. It made the following points:-
Severe winter weather affected Western and Central Europe throughout the first three weeks of December 2010, with the UK experiencing the coldest December for more than 100 years. This extreme cold weather was due to advection of cold arctic air associated with a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation.
The UK experienced two spells of severe winter weather with very low temperatures and significant snowfalls. The first of these spells lasted for two weeks from 25th November and saw persistent easterly or north-easterly winds bring bitterly cold air from northern Europe and Siberia. This spell of snow and freezing temperatures occurred unusually early in the winter, with the most significant and widespread snowfalls experienced in late November and early December since late November 1965. a second spell of severe weather began on 16th December as very cold Arctic air pushed down across the UK from the north.
The distributions of the December-January-February (DJF) mean regional temperature in recent years in the presence and absence of anthropogenic forcings are shown in Figure 7. Analyses with both models suggest that human influences on the climate have shifted the distributions to higher temperatures. The winter of 2010/11 is cold, as shown in Figure 7, as it lies near the cold tail of the seasonal temperature distribution for the climate influenced by anthropogenic forcings (distributions plotted in red). It is considerably warmer than the winter of 1962/63, which is the coldest since 1900 in the CRUTEM3 dataset. In the absence of human influences (green distributions), the season lies near the central sector of the temperature distribution and would therefore be an average season.
So, to summarise, the Met Office believed that winters have been getting warmer, and that the winter of 2010/11 was caused by a natural event, the Arctic Oscillation, and, but for human influences, would actually have been a fairly average winter. (According to NOAA, similar conditions existed during the even colder winter in the UK of 1962/63).
Dr Myles Allen, and a few more!
In 2009, Dr Myles Allen, head of the Climate Dynamics group at Department of Physics, University of Oxford told the Daily Telegraph, during another spell of bad snow Even though this is quite a cold winter by recent standards it is still perfectly consistent with predictions for global warming. If it wasnt for global warming this cold snap would happen much more regularly. What is interesting is that we are now surprised by this kind of weather. I doubt we would have been in the 1950s because it was much more common.
The report goes on to say a study by the Met Office which went back 350 years shows that such extreme weather now only occurs every 20 years. Back in the pre-industrial days of Charles Dickens, it was a much more regular occurrence hitting the country on average every five years or so.
This winter seems so bad precisely because it is now so unusual. In contrast the deep freezes of 1946-47 and 1962-63 were much colder 5.3 F (2.97C) and 7.9 F (4.37C) cooler than the long-term norm.
And with global warming we can expect another 1962-63 winter only once every 1,100 years, compared with every 183 years before 1850.
Meanwhile Dave Britton, a meteorologist and climate scientist at the Met Office, said: Even with global warming you cannot rule out we will have a cold winter every so often. It sometimes rains in the Sahara but it is still a desert.
Even Bob Ward, PR man for the warmist Grantham Foundation, keen to stop people thinking that cold winters did not mean global warming had stopped, said Just as the wet summer of 2007 or recent heat waves cannot be attributed to global warming nor can this cold snap
Dont forget NCAR & NOAA!
Over in the US, they were just as keen to keep on message. An article in Phys.Org, Experts: Cold snap doesnt disprove global warming, which was published in January 2010, had this to say:-
Whatever happened to global warming? Such weather doesnt seem to fit with warnings from scientists that the Earth is warming because of greenhouse gases. But experts say the cold snap doesnt disprove global warming at all its just a blip in the long-term heating trend.
Its part of natural variability, said Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. With global warming, he said, well still have record cold temperatures. Well just have fewer of them.
Deke Arndt of the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., noted that 2009 will rank among the 10 warmest years for Earth since 1880. Scientists say man-made climate change does have the potential to cause more frequent and more severe weather extremes, such as heat waves, storms, floods, droughts and even cold spells. But experts interviewed by The Associated Press did not connect the current frigid blast to climate change.
So what is going on? We basically have seen just a big outbreak of Arctic air over populated areas of the Northern Hemisphere, Arndt said. The Arctic air has really turned itself loose on us.
In the atmosphere, large rivers of air travel roughly west to east around the globe between the Arctic and the tropics. This air flow acts like a fence to keep Arctic air confined. But recently, this air flow has become bent into a pronounced zigzag pattern, meandering north and south. If you live in a place where it brings air up from the south, you get warm weather. In fact, record highs were reported this week in Washington state and Alaska.
But in the eastern United States, like some other unlucky parts of the globe, Arctic air is swooping down from the north. And thats how you get a temperature of 3 degrees in Beijing, a reading of minus-42 in mainland Norway, and 18 inches of snow in parts of Britain, where a member of Parliament who said the snow clearly indicates a cooling trend was jeered by colleagues.
The zigzag pattern arises naturally from time to time, but it is not clear why its so strong right now, said Michelle LHeureux, a meteorologist at the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
It seems to me that these these theories, that global warming will lead to colder winters, need to pass three tests before they can even cross the starting line:-
1) Explain how winters were as colder, or colder, and as snowy or snowier, in earlier periods such as the 1960s and 70s, when the NH was cooling, and Arctic ice expanding.
2) Explain how winters grew milder in the 1990s and early 2000s, at a time when the earth was warming, and Arctic ice was declining.
3) Prove what was wrong with earlier models that predicted milder winters.
Until these tests are passed, the theories really dont get off the ground.
Looking more closely at the Chinese study, mentioned above, by Zhang, Lu and Guan, their abstract states:-
Extreme cold winter weather events over Eurasia have occurred more frequently in recent years in spite of a warming global climate. To gain further insight into this regional mismatch with the global mean warming trend, we analyzed winter cyclone and anticyclone activities, and their interplay with the regional atmospheric circulation pattern characterized by the semi-permanent Siberian high. We found a persistent weakening of both cyclones and anticyclones between the 1990s and early 2000s, and a pronounced intensification of anticyclone activity afterwards. It is suggested that this intensified anticyclone activity drives the substantially strengthening and northwestward shifting/expanding Siberian high, and explains the decreased midlatitude Eurasian surface air temperature and the increased frequency of cold weather events. The weakened tropospheric midlatitude westerlies in the context of the intensified anticyclones would reduce the eastward propagation speed of Rossby waves, favoring persistence and further intensification of surface anticyclone systems.
Their methodology also tells us that the data used is from 1979-2012.
What they are saying then is that, in the 1990s, conditions changed to a weakened state of cyclones and anticyclones, and therefore milder winters. In the last few years, it has changed back to a strengthened state. Although they have not analysed data back, at least, to the 1960s, (which seems an amazing omission, that hugely undermines their work), the implication is clear, that recent conditions have returned to close to the ones that existed prior to 1990.
But none of that stops Zhang from saying Decreased sea-ice cover favours further extension of warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. When this warm air propagates to the lower-latitude Eurasian continent, it gets cooled due to radiative heat loss. Anticyclones accordingly form or intensify.
Before going on to say We need to evaluate whether climate models can realistically capture weather-scale physical processes, which, translated, means Please send us some more grant money.
I have heard that Boston is having a Blizzard....It must be the Warm Gulf Stream....
“Science” is becoming the new one world religion. All who doubt are mocked and demonized.
Climate change brings colder winters to Europe and Asia
I believe this headline is entirely correct. Yes. Seasonal climate changes can indeed bring colder temperatures.
I got frostbite in the sauna the other day when I turned up the heat. So all this makes perfect sense to me.
Hereon the west coast, it is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (ENSO) that occurs every 20-40 years. It is why we have booming salmon runs right now and 2 feet of snow and 20 degrees outside in N. CA. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation
I predict that any time it’s not warmer it will be colder!
If its a cold winter - it's humans.
If its a hot summer - it's humans.
If hurricanes - it's humans.
If it's super storms - it's humans.
If ice storms, tornadoes, droughts, rain deluges, etc - it's humans.
Next it will be earthquakes. Watch. These so-called scientists WILL make some connection.
Interesting that recent research and findings are actually starting to prove the Sun has more influence over our climate than any of our puny human causes. Uh, remember that big bright thing in the sky that actually gives this rock its life and that everyone knows that affects our weather patterns. Yet, the so-called journalists and socialist busybodies haven't bothered to report those recent findings in mass. Agendas are agendas.
As long lasted as this stupid "global warming" thing has been, I believe it will go down in history as another failed pseudo-science like the scares of the 1970's "Population Bomb" and "Ice Age" and "Ozone Depletion" and the "Alcar Apple Scare", and that there is no natural difference between boys and girls according to Time or Newsweek.
That was one that made me laugh the loudest, since I raised a boy and girl. Later, they said, gosh, there are differences between boys and girls. What a surprise!
The reason they finally figured it out was because of a number of experiments with children. They would put a number of toddler boys and girls behind a short wall with their mothers on the other side. They found that the boys would try to reach/climb over the wall, while the girls sat and cried.
It showed that boys were more aggressive and girls were more passive. Not saying either is better - just noting the difference. Took years for all the expert sociologists to find out what every parent already knew.
The above aside, everyone likes to claim empirical science is exact. I've seen otherwise in my 63 years. No one knows what tomorrow will bring that will change such empirical evidence. Even physics changes by the decade. Think quantum physics compared to Newton's basic laws. Or think about the world's beliefs before Copernicus?
To make it simple, before Columbus, the academics of the time thought there was an end to the World where you would fall off. Columbus, Magellen, and others proved that we live on a globe, not a flat plane. Yes, I remember my junior high history.
Yet, climatologists now KNOW exactly that climate change is due to mankind carbon emissions? Pfft.
Many uneducated people thought this, but academics throughout the Middle Ages were perfectly well aware that the world is round.
Thank you marsh2. I’ve been stating this for some time. Same reason we have lulls in hurricanes here in Fl. You can’t rationalize with folks watching the Kardashians for current events though.
My concern right now is that the global warming is going to melt all the snow I shoveled yesterday.
The Bible describes a flat earth, and in the Classical period Greek astronomers and mathematicians argued for variously a flat, rectangular and spherical earth. Ptolemy chose a spherical earth, based on evidence, and there was little doubt in West that the earth was round after about 200 AD.
Clearly there is some “forcing” of global warming by human activity, but it is not at all clear how large the effect is or if, on net, it is beneficial or harmful. I think the correct answers are probably “quite small” and “on the whole, beneficial”.
I generally agree, though the “flat earth” described by the Bible is more than a little ambiguous. There are also passages that can be translated as referencing a spherical earth.
Anywho, for the most part any Bible references are poetical, certainly not intended as a scientific treatise. We use expressions all the time that imply a flat earth (the ends of the earth, for instance) without implying we believe it really is flat.
Global Warming must be an extremely robust theory. ALL weather events are proof of it.
i didn't know it was possible to be that stooopid and still breath without mechanical assistance...
Just commenting on historical cosmology. No educated person in the west in 1492 believed the earth was flat.
2008: You see the warm winter proves Global warming is true just like our computer models predicted
2009: The Cool Winter is weather not climate
2010: The Cold Winter is weather not climate
2011: You see the record cold winter proves Global warming is causing global cooling just like our computer models predicted
2012: You see the warm winter proves Global warming is true just like our computer models predicted
2013: You see those warm days in January proves Global warming is warming the earth and the record cold and snow in February proves Global warming is causing global cooling both just like our computer models predicted