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Global Warming To Bring Colder/Warmer Winters
Watts Up With That? ^ | February 8, 2013 | Paul Homewood

Posted on 02/09/2013 11:02:47 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach

By Paul Homewood

It seems that every time we get some snow, another “scientist” is wheeled out to explain that, no matter how cold it gets, it is all down to global warming.

In the last week or so, we have had the International Arctic Research Centre announcing a study by three Chinese scientists, “Weakened cyclones, intensified anticyclones and recent extreme cold winter weather events in Eurasia “, with the headline “Climate change brings colder winters to Europe and Asia”. Then, we had WWF Russia blaming the blizzards in Russia on global warming.

But let’s, for one moment, remind ourselves of some of the “scientists” who have said the exact opposite.

UK Met Office

As recently as 2011, Julia Slingo and her team published an extremely thorough paper, “Climate: Observations, projections and impacts”. Running to some 153 pages, it looked at recent trends and future projections, both for the UK and the rest of the world. It made the following points:-

Severe winter weather affected Western and Central Europe throughout the first three weeks of December 2010, with the UK experiencing the coldest December for more than 100 years. This extreme cold weather was due to advection of cold arctic air associated with a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation.

The UK experienced two spells of severe winter weather with very low temperatures and significant snowfalls. The first of these spells lasted for two weeks from 25th November and saw persistent easterly or north-easterly winds bring bitterly cold air from northern Europe and Siberia. This spell of snow and freezing temperatures occurred unusually early in the winter, with the most significant and widespread snowfalls experienced in late November and early December since late November 1965. a second spell of severe weather began on 16th December as very cold Arctic air pushed down across the UK from the north.

The distributions of the December-January-February (DJF) mean regional temperature in recent years in the presence and absence of anthropogenic forcings are shown in Figure 7. Analyses with both models suggest that human influences on the climate have shifted the distributions to higher temperatures. The winter of 2010/11 is cold, as shown in Figure 7, as it lies near the cold tail of the seasonal temperature distribution for the climate influenced by anthropogenic forcings (distributions plotted in red). It is considerably warmer than the winter of 1962/63, which is the coldest since 1900 in the CRUTEM3 dataset. In the absence of human influences (green distributions), the season lies near the central sector of the temperature distribution and would therefore be an average season.

image

So, to summarise, the Met Office believed that winters have been getting warmer, and that the winter of 2010/11 was caused by a natural event, the Arctic Oscillation, and, but for “human influences”, would actually have been a fairly average winter. (According to NOAA, similar conditions existed during the even colder winter in the UK of 1962/63).

Dr Myles Allen, and a few more!

In 2009, Dr Myles Allen, head of the Climate Dynamics group at Department of Physics, University of Oxford told the Daily Telegraph, during another spell of bad snow “Even though this is quite a cold winter by recent standards it is still perfectly consistent with predictions for global warming. If it wasn’t for global warming this cold snap would happen much more regularly. What is interesting is that we are now surprised by this kind of weather. I doubt we would have been in the 1950s because it was much more common. “

The report goes on to say “a study by the Met Office which went back 350 years shows that such extreme weather now only occurs every 20 years. Back in the pre-industrial days of Charles Dickens, it was a much more regular occurrence – hitting the country on average every five years or so.

This winter seems so bad precisely because it is now so unusual. In contrast the deep freezes of 1946-47 and 1962-63 were much colder – 5.3 F (2.97C) and 7.9 F (4.37C) cooler than the long-term norm.

And with global warming we can expect another 1962-63 winter only once every 1,100 years, compared with every 183 years before 1850. “

Meanwhile Dave Britton, a meteorologist and climate scientist at the Met Office, said: “Even with global warming you cannot rule out we will have a cold winter every so often. It sometimes rains in the Sahara but it is still a desert.”

Even Bob Ward, PR man for the warmist Grantham Foundation, keen to stop people thinking that cold winters did not mean global warming had stopped, said “Just as the wet summer of 2007 or recent heat waves cannot be attributed to global warming nor can this cold snap”

Don’t forget NCAR & NOAA!

Over in the US, they were just as keen to keep on message. An article in Phys.Org, “Experts: Cold snap doesn’t disprove global warming”, which was published in January 2010, had this to say:-

Whatever happened to global warming? Such weather doesn’t seem to fit with warnings from scientists that the Earth is warming because of greenhouse gases. But experts say the cold snap doesn’t disprove global warming at all – it’s just a blip in the long-term heating trend. “It’s part of natural variability,” said Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. With global warming, he said, “we’ll still have record cold temperatures. We’ll just have fewer of them.” Deke Arndt of the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., noted that 2009 will rank among the 10 warmest years for Earth since 1880. Scientists say man-made climate change does have the potential to cause more frequent and more severe weather extremes, such as heat waves, storms, floods, droughts and even cold spells. But experts interviewed by The Associated Press did not connect the current frigid blast to climate change. So what is going on? “We basically have seen just a big outbreak of Arctic air” over populated areas of the Northern Hemisphere, Arndt said. “The Arctic air has really turned itself loose on us.” In the atmosphere, large rivers of air travel roughly west to east around the globe between the Arctic and the tropics. This air flow acts like a fence to keep Arctic air confined. But recently, this air flow has become bent into a pronounced zigzag pattern, meandering north and south. If you live in a place where it brings air up from the south, you get warm weather. In fact, record highs were reported this week in Washington state and Alaska. But in the eastern United States, like some other unlucky parts of the globe, Arctic air is swooping down from the north. And that’s how you get a temperature of 3 degrees in Beijing, a reading of minus-42 in mainland Norway, and 18 inches of snow in parts of Britain, where a member of Parliament who said the snow “clearly indicates a cooling trend” was jeered by colleagues. The zigzag pattern arises naturally from time to time, but it is not clear why it’s so strong right now, said Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist at the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The center says the pattern should begin to weaken in a week or two. Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for Weather Underground, a forecasting service, said he expects more typical winter weather across North America early next week. That will be welcome news in the South, where farmers have been trying to salvage millions of dollars’ worth of strawberries and other crops. On Miami Beach, tourists bundled up in woolen winter coats and hooded sweatshirts Wednesday beneath a clear blue sky. Some brazenly let the water wash over their feet and a few even lay out in bikinis and swimming trunks. A brisk wind blew and temperatures hovered in the 50s. “Last year we were swimming every day,” said Olivia Ruedinger of Hamburg, Germany. “I miss that.” Read more at: http://phys.org/news182026415.html#jCp

Whatever happened to global warming? Such weather doesn’t seem to fit with warnings from scientists that the Earth is warming because of greenhouse gases. But experts say the cold snap doesn’t disprove global warming at all – it’s just a blip in the long-term heating trend.

It’s part of natural variability,” said Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. With global warming, he said, “we’ll still have record cold temperatures. We’ll just have fewer of them.”

Deke Arndt of the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., noted that 2009 will rank among the 10 warmest years for Earth since 1880. Scientists say man-made climate change does have the potential to cause more frequent and more severe weather extremes, such as heat waves, storms, floods, droughts and even cold spells. But experts interviewed by The Associated Press did not connect the current frigid blast to climate change.

So what is going on? “We basically have seen just a big outbreak of Arctic air” over populated areas of the Northern Hemisphere, Arndt said. “The Arctic air has really turned itself loose on us.”

In the atmosphere, large rivers of air travel roughly west to east around the globe between the Arctic and the tropics. This air flow acts like a fence to keep Arctic air confined. But recently, this air flow has become bent into a pronounced zigzag pattern, meandering north and south. If you live in a place where it brings air up from the south, you get warm weather. In fact, record highs were reported this week in Washington state and Alaska.

But in the eastern United States, like some other unlucky parts of the globe, Arctic air is swooping down from the north. And that’s how you get a temperature of 3 degrees in Beijing, a reading of minus-42 in mainland Norway, and 18 inches of snow in parts of Britain, where a member of Parliament who said the snow “clearly indicates a cooling trend” was jeered by colleagues.

 The zigzag pattern arises naturally from time to time, but it is not clear why it’s so strong right now, said Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist at the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Conclusion?

It seems to me that these these theories, that global warming will lead to colder winters, need to pass three tests before they can even cross the starting line:-

1) Explain how winters were as colder, or colder, and as snowy or snowier, in earlier periods such as the 1960’s and 70’s, when the NH was cooling, and Arctic ice expanding.

2) Explain how winters grew milder in the 1990’s and early 2000’s, at a time when the earth was warming, and Arctic ice was declining.

3) Prove what was wrong with earlier models that predicted milder winters.

Until these tests are passed, the theories really don’t get off the ground.

Footnote

Looking more closely at the Chinese study, mentioned above, by Zhang, Lu and Guan, their abstract states:-

Extreme cold winter weather events over Eurasia have occurred more frequently in recent years in spite of a warming global climate. To gain further insight into this regional mismatch with the global mean warming trend, we analyzed winter cyclone and anticyclone activities, and their interplay with the regional atmospheric circulation pattern characterized by the semi-permanent Siberian high. We found a persistent weakening of both cyclones and anticyclones between the 1990s and early 2000s, and a pronounced intensification of anticyclone activity afterwards. It is suggested that this intensified anticyclone activity drives the substantially strengthening and northwestward shifting/expanding Siberian high, and explains the decreased midlatitude Eurasian surface air temperature and the increased frequency of cold weather events. The weakened tropospheric midlatitude westerlies in the context of the intensified anticyclones would reduce the eastward propagation speed of Rossby waves, favoring persistence and further intensification of surface anticyclone systems.

Their methodology also tells us that the data used is from 1979-2012.

What they are saying then is that, in the 1990’s, conditions changed to a weakened state of cyclones and anticyclones, and therefore milder winters. In the last few years, it has changed back to a strengthened state. Although they have not analysed data back, at least, to the 1960’s, (which seems an amazing omission, that hugely undermines their work), the implication is clear, that recent conditions have returned to close to the ones that existed prior to 1990.

But none of that stops Zhang from saying “Decreased sea-ice cover favours further extension of warm air into the central Arctic Ocean. When this warm air propagates to the lower-latitude Eurasian continent, it gets cooled due to radiative heat loss. Anticyclones accordingly form or intensify.”

Before going on to say “We need to evaluate whether climate models can realistically capture weather-scale physical processes”, which, translated, means “Please send us some more grant money”.


TOPICS: Conspiracy; Science; Weather
KEYWORDS: climatechange; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax

1 posted on 02/09/2013 11:02:50 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: SunkenCiv; Marine_Uncle; Fred Nerks; Carry_Okie; blam; Lorianne; Twotone; bigbob; NormsRevenge; ...

I have heard that Boston is having a Blizzard....It must be the Warm Gulf Stream....


2 posted on 02/09/2013 11:05:03 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

“Science” is becoming the new one world religion. All who doubt are mocked and demonized.


3 posted on 02/09/2013 11:31:41 PM PST by vpintheak (Occupy your Brain!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
As your well aware. It is the huge Arctic cold air mass that descends southward into the NE.
Hitting the rack E. Do enjoy yet another day on God's lovely planet, healthy, safe and sound.
Thank the Good Lord we in the USA have not have to endure those fifty plus minus conditions the Russians and Asians have had to endure. Global warming?
The Mad Hatter and Rabbit cannot for long deceive Alice.
4 posted on 02/09/2013 11:33:19 PM PST by Marine_Uncle (I'm going John Galt.... But. Honor must be earned.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

“Climate change brings colder winters to Europe and Asia”

I believe this headline is entirely correct. Yes. Seasonal climate changes can indeed bring colder temperatures.


5 posted on 02/10/2013 12:15:37 AM PST by CitizenUSA (Why celebrate evil? Evil is easy. Good is the goal worth striving for.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I got frostbite in the sauna the other day when I turned up the heat. So all this makes perfect sense to me.


6 posted on 02/10/2013 12:19:33 AM PST by LibWhacker
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Hereon the west coast, it is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (ENSO) that occurs every 20-40 years. It is why we have booming salmon runs right now and 2 feet of snow and 20 degrees outside in N. CA. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation

http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/pdo/


7 posted on 02/10/2013 12:54:42 AM PST by marsh2
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I predict that any time it’s not warmer it will be colder!


8 posted on 02/10/2013 1:13:13 AM PST by SWAMPSNIPER (The Second Amendment, a Matter of Fact, Not a Matter of Opinion)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
I need not read all of the above. I've read enough to know that the "Hate Production Crowd" will massage the numbers and extrapolate and lie enough to make every simple weather pattern be caused by humankind.

If its a cold winter - it's humans.
If its a hot summer - it's humans.
If hurricanes - it's humans.
If it's super storms - it's humans.
If ice storms, tornadoes, droughts, rain deluges, etc - it's humans.
Next it will be earthquakes. Watch. These so-called scientists WILL make some connection.

Interesting that recent research and findings are actually starting to prove the Sun has more influence over our climate than any of our puny human causes. Uh, remember that big bright thing in the sky that actually gives this rock its life and that everyone knows that affects our weather patterns. Yet, the so-called journalists and socialist busybodies haven't bothered to report those recent findings in mass. Agendas are agendas.

As long lasted as this stupid "global warming" thing has been, I believe it will go down in history as another failed pseudo-science like the scares of the 1970's "Population Bomb" and "Ice Age" and "Ozone Depletion" and the "Alcar Apple Scare", and that there is no natural difference between boys and girls according to Time or Newsweek.

That was one that made me laugh the loudest, since I raised a boy and girl. Later, they said, gosh, there are differences between boys and girls. What a surprise!

The reason they finally figured it out was because of a number of experiments with children. They would put a number of toddler boys and girls behind a short wall with their mothers on the other side. They found that the boys would try to reach/climb over the wall, while the girls sat and cried.

It showed that boys were more aggressive and girls were more passive. Not saying either is better - just noting the difference. Took years for all the expert sociologists to find out what every parent already knew.

The above aside, everyone likes to claim empirical science is exact. I've seen otherwise in my 63 years. No one knows what tomorrow will bring that will change such empirical evidence. Even physics changes by the decade. Think quantum physics compared to Newton's basic laws. Or think about the world's beliefs before Copernicus?

To make it simple, before Columbus, the academics of the time thought there was an end to the World where you would fall off. Columbus, Magellen, and others proved that we live on a globe, not a flat plane. Yes, I remember my junior high history.

Yet, climatologists now KNOW exactly that climate change is due to mankind carbon emissions? Pfft.

9 posted on 02/10/2013 1:44:10 AM PST by A Navy Vet (An Oath is Forever.)
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To: A Navy Vet
before Columbus, the academics of the time thought there was an end to the World where you would fall off.

Nit.

Many uneducated people thought this, but academics throughout the Middle Ages were perfectly well aware that the world is round.

10 posted on 02/10/2013 2:16:16 AM PST by Sherman Logan
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To: marsh2

Thank you marsh2. I’ve been stating this for some time. Same reason we have lulls in hurricanes here in Fl. You can’t rationalize with folks watching the Kardashians for current events though.


11 posted on 02/10/2013 2:39:21 AM PST by poobear (Socialism in the minds of the elites. is a con-game for the serfs, nothing more.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

My concern right now is that the global warming is going to melt all the snow I shoveled yesterday.


12 posted on 02/10/2013 4:02:21 AM PST by 1_Rain_Drop
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Time for the AGW "duh" meter again.


13 posted on 02/10/2013 4:08:42 AM PST by clearcarbon
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To: Sherman Logan

The Bible describes a flat earth, and in the Classical period Greek astronomers and mathematicians argued for variously a flat, rectangular and spherical earth. Ptolemy chose a spherical earth, based on evidence, and there was little doubt in West that the earth was round after about 200 AD.

Clearly there is some “forcing” of global warming by human activity, but it is not at all clear how large the effect is or if, on net, it is beneficial or harmful. I think the correct answers are probably “quite small” and “on the whole, beneficial”.


14 posted on 02/10/2013 4:25:52 AM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (What word begins with "O" and ends in economic collapse?)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

I generally agree, though the “flat earth” described by the Bible is more than a little ambiguous. There are also passages that can be translated as referencing a spherical earth.

Anywho, for the most part any Bible references are poetical, certainly not intended as a scientific treatise. We use expressions all the time that imply a flat earth (the ends of the earth, for instance) without implying we believe it really is flat.


15 posted on 02/10/2013 5:19:16 AM PST by Sherman Logan
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Global Warming must be an extremely robust theory. ALL weather events are proof of it.


16 posted on 02/10/2013 5:55:02 AM PST by norwaypinesavage (Galileo: In science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of one individual)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Bullsh*t CYA.


17 posted on 02/10/2013 6:15:13 AM PST by Jack Hammer
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To: A Navy Vet
An ASTEROID is coming? - it's humans

CNN Anchor Blames Asteroid on Global Warming

i didn't know it was possible to be that stooopid and still breath without mechanical assistance...

18 posted on 02/10/2013 7:34:27 AM PST by Chode (Stand UP and Be Counted, or line up and be numbered - *DTOM* -ww- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: Sherman Logan

Just commenting on historical cosmology. No educated person in the west in 1492 believed the earth was flat.


19 posted on 02/10/2013 8:10:54 AM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (What word begins with "O" and ends in economic collapse?)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

2008: You see the warm winter proves Global warming is true just like our computer models predicted

2009: The Cool Winter is weather not climate

2010: The Cold Winter is weather not climate

2011: You see the record cold winter proves Global warming is causing global cooling just like our computer models predicted

2012: You see the warm winter proves Global warming is true just like our computer models predicted

2013: You see those warm days in January proves Global warming is warming the earth and the record cold and snow in February proves Global warming is causing global cooling both just like our computer models predicted


20 posted on 02/10/2013 8:52:31 AM PST by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

I agree.

The academics who rejected Columbus’ plan did so not because they thought the earth was flat, but because they thought C had calculated the circumference of the earth as much too small, and the width of Asia as much too wide. Thus he could not reach Asia by sailing west without running out of supplies and dying.

And they were right! If America had not been in the way, Columbus and his men would have all died long before they got to Asia.


21 posted on 02/10/2013 4:01:00 PM PST by Sherman Logan
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
It could not have happen to a more deserving bunch of liberals.
Liberals ? enjoy your freezing winter chill with your GREEN technology in warming your homes from the winter chill.
Yes Liberals, see how those solar panels nicely warm your comfortable homes from the winter chill ?
What you say ? your $ 20,000 Solar system was subsidized by other people's money ?
Yes Ernest, hope the liberals in Boston feel the chill of this winter storm for I have no sympathy for them.
22 posted on 02/13/2013 3:14:51 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets
" The Bible describes a flat earth "

How so ?

Actually the Bible is what told us that the earth was round well before man had a telescope or way before man discovered it was round thousands of years later.
The Bible says that " God sit's upon the " CIRCLE " of the earth.

Here it is

KJV

Isaiah 40:22

It is he that sits upon the circle of the earth, and its inhabitants are as grasshoppers; that stretches out the heavens as a curtain, and spreads them out as a tent to dwell in:

I do see and believe that the word " CIRCLE " is in that sentence.
23 posted on 02/13/2013 3:22:56 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
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To: American Constitutionalist

Circles are flat. The Old Testament reflects cosmology as it was understood in the Middle East in the First Millennium, BC. I have always taken much of the bible as allegorical, rather than literal. It was written to reveal God to man, not necessarily the puzzles of His works, which he left to us to figure out.


24 posted on 02/13/2013 3:52:59 PM PST by Lonesome in Massachussets (What word begins with "O" and ends in economic collapse?)
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To: Lonesome in Massachussets

There are times when I even can’t figure something out and turn to God for a answer.


25 posted on 02/13/2013 4:27:23 PM PST by American Constitutionalist
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