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Ammunition Shortage Very Confusing (Vanity)
Vanity | 4/6/2013 | benasawin

Posted on 04/06/2013 6:38:47 AM PDT by benasawin

The sudden shortage of ammo available just isn’t making sense. Yes, DHS has made substantial purchases (~1.6b rounds) but when one looks at the numbers, this alone cannot account for such dramatic shortages of supply.

Just estimating, for purpose of an example, 1.6b rounds is a huge purchase but how does this break out?

1.6b divided by 50 rounds/box equals 32m boxes. There are 50 states and for purposes of simplifying this example, say there are 50 cities in each state and 5 stores (outlets) per city. This computes to 125,000 total outlets in the US.

If one divides 32m boxes by 125,000 outlets, this equals 256 boxes (drain) on each outlet. There are certainly more than 50 cities in each state and highly likely that there are more than 5 outlets within each city.

My point, how could this action by DHS be the sole driver behind the shortages we are facing? There has to be more to this issue.


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: ammunition; dhs; shortage
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1 posted on 04/06/2013 6:38:47 AM PDT by benasawin
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To: benasawin

All I know is that I recently bought a .22 so I could shoot all day for a few dollars. The pistol really requires CCI MiniMag ammo. Can’t find any. I called one store - a huge guns and ammo supplier - and discovered they had the ammo for three days straight and are now out of stock again. They can’t maintain a steady supply!


2 posted on 04/06/2013 6:41:33 AM PDT by vladimir998
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To: benasawin

I think the ammo shortage is related to the “black rifle” shortage. American citizens are purchasing rifles and ammo in record numbers.


3 posted on 04/06/2013 6:42:27 AM PDT by cweese (Hook 'em Horns!!!)
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To: benasawin
Millons of new gun owners tens of millons of old gun owners.

People who should have had a couple hundreds of rounds stocked up but didn't.

All wanting some more ammo.

4 posted on 04/06/2013 6:43:39 AM PDT by riverrunner
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To: benasawin

Google/Bing George Soros ammo


5 posted on 04/06/2013 6:44:14 AM PDT by Thom Pain (U.S. Constitution is a CONTRACT!)
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To: benasawin

A lot of ammo is imported.

That ammo comes in through entry ways like ports. In things like shipping containers.

If the government lets that ammo sit on the docks and won’t let it in supply dries up more quickly.

They know what they are doing.


6 posted on 04/06/2013 6:44:33 AM PDT by isthisnickcool (Sharia? No thanks!)
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To: vladimir998

My point exactly. Other than shotgun shells, any rim fire or centerfire rounds are not to be found. Shelves are empty virtually every where one shops. Weird to say the least.


7 posted on 04/06/2013 6:47:00 AM PDT by benasawin
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To: benasawin

American citizens have purchased over 70 MILLION firearms since Obama took office.

That same motivation increased demand for ammo.

Threats of gun control, and now actual implementation, in some areas, have moved that increased demand into a panic.

Customers are practicing more, as evidenced by long lines at firing ranges around the country.

DoD is no longer making it’s used brass available for reloads, as they’ve issued directives to scrap it instead.
(here the intent is as conspiratorial as it seems on its face, as this is an economic negative for the gov’t)

Also, a couple major ammo manufacturers are at least partially shut down, while they make improvements to their factories.


8 posted on 04/06/2013 6:49:06 AM PDT by G Larry (Which of Obama's policies do you think I'd support if he were white?)
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To: cweese

While the DHS et al purchases may have put a crimp in some purchases, there still is the influx of foreign ammo and ammo they (government) hasn’t bought (yet).

It is the sign of a real fear by most American Gun Owners the government WILL do something about gun and ammo availability and they are “stocking up”.

Even though I had plenty before, I am buying whatever I can find I deem not “price-gouged”. I go by Walmart every morning at 7AM. Been lucky and found some great deals. You just have to be there consistently. (great deal 3 weeks ago on a 30 caliber ammo can-new- full of 420 rounds XM855LC SS109s on stripper clips for $175 - from Walmart, imagine that!) Day or so later, two 250 megapacks of UMC 9mm for $67 each - CTD sells 50 rds of PMC 9mm for $69)

As for the 22s, I think it’s a symptom of ammo manufacturers gearing production towards ammo they make a larger profit on, and the fact that many like me would like to have 5 or 10 thousand rounds to use for plinking, etc. So whatever hits the shelves gets snapped up just on principle.


9 posted on 04/06/2013 6:50:54 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: cweese

Yes, recent firearms purchases are through the roof but despite being able to occasionaly find a new piece, ammunition for it is almost non-existant.


10 posted on 04/06/2013 6:51:00 AM PDT by benasawin
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To: benasawin

For every billion rounds purchased by the government, you probably have 100 billion purchased by citizens. It is not just the volume but the velocity of purchases that are creating a bottleneck in the supply chain.


11 posted on 04/06/2013 6:51:28 AM PDT by mnehring
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To: cweese
It is rather simple to understand. How many gun owners in the US? 100 million plus? All of them are buying ammo whenever they can. The US Patriot is very uncomfortable with the Marxists running the country. Marxism has an easily identifiable and historically provable strategy to disarm the people. When folks feel their freedom and liberty is threatened they take action that they would not normally take.

I conduct recoil therapy once a week. (Sure beats drugs) I used to shoot 100 - 200 rounds on a weekend then go to the gun shop, Walmart, etc, and replenish my supply for the next weekend. No more -- I now buy ammo in the caliber I need when ever I see it. I'm certain there are many others that do the same. This is the reason for the supply problem.

12 posted on 04/06/2013 6:54:50 AM PDT by mosaicwolf (Strength and Honor)
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To: vladimir998

There is a one word answer as to why there are ammunition and component shortages:

FEAR


13 posted on 04/06/2013 6:55:59 AM PDT by Tupelo (Old, Bald, Ugly, Fat and Broke in Arizona)
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To: isthisnickcool

Agreed, but it is also abnormally high demand of gun owners who are “afraid” of their government.

It has gotten much worse since the active gun grab.

The Fed Gov is doing everything they can to make it worse. Looking for an excuse to confiscate.


14 posted on 04/06/2013 6:56:00 AM PDT by Texas Fossil
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To: riverrunner

—Millons of new gun owners tens of millons of old gun owners.-—

Definitely a major factor. More so, I would expect, than government’s recent actions.
At some point though, even that demand has to let up somewhat and we should start seeing a recovery of supply levels. At least one can hope. hee


15 posted on 04/06/2013 6:56:49 AM PDT by benasawin
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To: mnehring

largely, I believe this. And, while I thought the government’s purchases of 9mm, 40 S&W, and even 45 ACP seemed reasonable if spread over a 5 year IDIQ contract.

However, I now think they are trying to manipulate availabilities somewhat. I recently read where they are planning on similar purchases for odd caliber ammo, one specifically is 45 LONG COLT in large quantities....this isn’t what one would consider a government round.

SAAs, Cowboy actions, and the like, Carbines, Lever actions, Revolvers and maybe a Judge or Governor, but not nearly a billion round’s worth....


16 posted on 04/06/2013 6:58:36 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: benasawin

It isn’t confusing at all when you get right down to it. Metals and minerals are also in a shortage and have been for some time now. The DHS purchases haven’t really had as much impact as disruptions that were already in effect in the marketplace.


17 posted on 04/06/2013 6:59:15 AM PDT by arderkrag (An Unreconstructed Georgian, STANDING WITH RAND.)
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To: benasawin

To find the source of the ammo shortage, read the news, then look in the mirror and multiply by every conservative with a clue.


18 posted on 04/06/2013 7:00:26 AM PDT by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
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To: FreedomPoster

Excellent point. hee-hee
But my mirror only shows a fella that hasn’t been able to restock his supply in weeks. That and some new wrinkles I had not noticed before.


19 posted on 04/06/2013 7:04:36 AM PDT by benasawin
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To: benasawin

>>My point, how could this action by DHS be the sole driver behind the shortages we are facing? There has to be more to this issue.

I have friends who call every place that sells ammo every morning. If a store has recieved a shipment, they leave work and go buy as much as they can.

DHS is a major buyer, but a couple dozen million people who are panic-buying are the real cause for the shortage.


20 posted on 04/06/2013 7:07:28 AM PDT by Bryanw92 (Sic semper tyrannis)
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To: cweese
American citizens are purchasing rifles and ammo in record numbers.

I still can't understand the need for a 25 yr supply of ammo other than blow your ass up along with your house and family.

IMHO, most civilians, if engaged in some sort of confrontation with any government types won't even go through 50 rounds before the 'party's over'!

21 posted on 04/06/2013 7:08:53 AM PDT by varon (USA Nationalist)
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To: Gaffer
However, I now think they are trying to manipulate availabilities somewhat. I recently read where they are planning on similar purchases for odd caliber ammo, one specifically is 45 LONG COLT in large quantities....this isn’t what one would consider a government round.

While that could be a way to continue the system bottle-neck, I have a feeling this is more due to a government idiot filling out requisition forms and when he was told to buy .45, he checked the box with everything that started with .4. We are talking about government idiots here.

22 posted on 04/06/2013 7:13:10 AM PDT by mnehring
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To: varon
I still can't understand the need for a 25 yr supply of ammo other than blow your ass up along with your house and family.

A 25 year supply to some is a weekend at the range to others.

23 posted on 04/06/2013 7:13:57 AM PDT by mnehring
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To: mosaicwolf

-—I conduct recoil therapy once a week.-—

Hee-hee I refer to it as an Aggresion Relief Seminar but I really like that recoil therapy tag.
Shoot straight and stay safe my friend.


24 posted on 04/06/2013 7:19:26 AM PDT by benasawin
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To: FreedomPoster
To find the source of the ammo shortage, read the news, then look in the mirror and multiply by every conservative with a clue.

I am guilty as charged. Maybe not as crazy as some, but, for example, back in December when it was getting crazy, I bought the last 20 boxes of 556 at Academy (back when it was still $12 for a box of 20). Since then, I have heard they get about 5 boxes in occasionally and they are sold almost as soon as they come off the truck. At the last gun show, I bought the vendor's entire remaining stock of 9mm (wasn't that much). I don't consider it hoarding because if things chill out in terms of panic buying, that is just a weekend of 3 gun matches.

25 posted on 04/06/2013 7:19:56 AM PDT by mnehring
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To: benasawin

People are buying FAR more than the government is. People are scared and believe they will need that ammo. They may be right.


26 posted on 04/06/2013 7:20:01 AM PDT by CodeToad (Liberals are bloodsucking ticks. We need to light the matchstick to burn them off.)
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To: cweese

Obongo will go down in history for a number of his”accomplishments”!One is the utter destruction of free-enterprise/ capitalism that made The United States of America the most powerful economic force in world history;the other is for being the GREATEST gun salesman since Colonel Colt!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


27 posted on 04/06/2013 7:31:21 AM PDT by bandleader
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To: bandleader

I wonder what percent of the GDP growth is directly or indirectly related to the firearms industry? If you factor that out, will that .3% growth drop to 0?


28 posted on 04/06/2013 7:38:00 AM PDT by mnehring
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To: vladimir998
The pistol really requires CCI MiniMag ammo.

Check out some of the videos on YouTube to see the Ruger SR 22 shoot through every cheap brand of 22 cartridge found on store shelves.

29 posted on 04/06/2013 7:39:23 AM PDT by itsahoot (It is not so much that history repeats, but that human nature does not change.)
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To: itsahoot

I can use whatever .22 round I want in my .22 rifles. For the pistol, however, I need very high velocity .22 ammo (such as CCI MiniMag). Without the high velocity round the slide will not cycle back because it is a full weight slide.


30 posted on 04/06/2013 7:42:29 AM PDT by vladimir998
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To: vladimir998

People are hoarding. I know people who have pallets. The normal supply in the pipeline has been emptied. I have a decent inventory but people purchased it like life insurance. There is plenty available in Armslist. Its high
. Cheaper than Dirt has some cheap stuff. I guess people are just playing the game hitting the stores when it arrives.

hopefully the greedy will loose their shorts if and when the scare ends. People buying now are paying premium prices. No sense buying tons now.


31 posted on 04/06/2013 7:48:15 AM PDT by ImJustAnotherOkie (zerogottago)
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To: benasawin

The states really need to get involved with this now.

They can do this by streamlining regulations for ammo manufacturers, on condition that their ammo is made entirely in state, for in state sale only, for a period of say, 10 years from when they begin production.

And give them some tax abatement to go with that. But the biggest thing is to keep county and local governments from interfering with them, or taxing them.

The state should also provide an on-site quality inspector, to insure they aren’t just cranking out dummies for the benefits, or shipping them out of state too soon.


32 posted on 04/06/2013 8:02:27 AM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy (Best WoT news at rantburg.com)
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To: benasawin

I never heard anyone say that govt purchases are directly causing the shortage. The shortage is because of the demand by gun owners. What is disturbing about the govt purchases is that they are now being made by departments that have no business being involved in law enforcement. The govt is clearly being armed across all departments for conflicts involving its own citizens.


33 posted on 04/06/2013 8:04:06 AM PDT by Kirkwood (Zombie Hunter)
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To: Kirkwood

Either to stop the hordes from the cities when the EBT cards stop working, or to go out and confiscate food from “hoarders” when the EBT cards stop working.

I prefer the first. I am close enough to Atlanta, that it won’t matter how much ammo I have, I will get overrun if the Gov. can’t stop the hordes.


34 posted on 04/06/2013 8:11:54 AM PDT by FreeAtlanta (bahits.com)
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To: benasawin

Demand is high, people are exploiting the demand with higher prices, however manufacturers and retailers have been holding prices down. The paultry amounts of ammo that make it to stores is being bought up the moment it arrives on the sales floor — in most cases it never reaches the shelves. The ammo is then being turned around by individuals on forums and various third party sales outlets for outrageous prices because most people are too busy to compete for it at the store level when shipments arrive and are willing to pay the high prices to get what they want.

The sad thing is that most of the ammo that arrives at the stores is the type most individuals would pass over for better quality or function if demand was being met. So far, the brands I have seen show up regularly in the past four weeks at three stores have been Remington, Hornady, and Blazer with an occassional box of Winchester in the mix. With the exception of Hornady, all of it is plain ball type ammo. In Hornady’s case all of it is high quality, but also expensive and in smaller quantities (i.e., 20 rounds of personal defense ammo for $22).

The stores have been trying to combat the resale path and have started lieing to customers about what they have, are more guarded about shipment days and times, and will filter out their orders over a period of hours and days rather than bring it out all at once. Some stores are issuing numbers to those in line waiting for their doors to open on a delivery day and limiting the quantity buyers can purchase. Even with these restrictions the first seven customers might still buy up all that was delivered that day.


35 posted on 04/06/2013 8:24:04 AM PDT by xander
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To: vladimir998

“All I know is that I recently bought a .22 so I could shoot all day for a few dollars. The pistol really requires CCI MiniMag ammo”

I have a Keltec PMR30 which uses CCI maxi mag. Just picked up a couple of boxes yesterday at the gun store. They had plenty of it. I have been picking up a couple of boxes at a time til I get 1000 rounds plus a 100 rounds for practice kept aside at all times.

Our gunstore had just gotten a shipment of bulk 5.56 and .223. Running $549 per 1000 on some 5.56 (S Korean)up to about $700 per 900 for 7.62 x 39. (Brazilian) Not so bad. Looks like things are loosening up a bit.


36 posted on 04/06/2013 8:47:21 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: Gaffer

My Judge uses .45 Long Colt or .410 shells. We bought it about 6 mos ago and have found very little of the .45 in all that time.

Bottom line, Long Colt is already being scarfed up by someone.


37 posted on 04/06/2013 8:54:05 AM PDT by FrogMom (Chicken Little is coming, and he's right!)
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To: FrogMom

I’ve got a Governor (S&W) that uses moon-clipped 45 ACP, 45 Long Colts, or .410 shotgun shells....outside of this modern revolver type and a Ruger or S&W Revolver or two (Ruger Bisely Blackhawk, S&W Model 25), the only other guns I have that use 45 Long are lever action rifles, single action army, ranch hands, or the like - most just replicas of Cowboy action stuff.

It isn’t a caliber that I think the Government should be using...these guys are just playing if you ask me. Take a look at any picture of a SWAT team - what you see are Rambos dressed to the hilt with way-overpriced goodies needed to do their job. For the lesser known SWATS, what you see are fat dumbasses and wannabes who’ve found a paid hobby.


38 posted on 04/06/2013 9:02:02 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Bryanw92

Calling doesn’t work any more. Many of the people on the other end just lie or try to end the call as early as possible, especially in places like Walmart. You have to get to the shelves and look -—often and early..


39 posted on 04/06/2013 9:03:29 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Gaffer

I looked up the actual government requisition for their odd calibers purchase. That DHS request was not for billions of .22, 30-30, 45LC, 410, qnd 12 guage 8 birdshot, but several thousand rounds each. My thought was some .gov employees were using official purchase requests to secure personal ammo.


40 posted on 04/06/2013 9:04:12 AM PDT by rickomatic
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To: benasawin

You can find most any odd hunting rifle caliber centerfire at my Walmart and the other two near here.


41 posted on 04/06/2013 9:04:27 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: arderkrag

There weren’t any disruptions I saw before early December.


42 posted on 04/06/2013 9:05:39 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: mnehring

I have some ammo (45ACP) made by Western Case Cartridge company in 1942. Had 600 rounds of it and have gone through half in the last year. Not one misfire, corroded primer/round...no problem. Only problem is that old WWII ammo is corrosive. You need to clean and oil the gun right afterwards if you don’t want a bunch of rust.


43 posted on 04/06/2013 9:08:45 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: rickomatic

I’ll take your word for it, but I swear I saw numbers approaching 800,000 rounds or more.


44 posted on 04/06/2013 9:09:50 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Kirkwood
Yes, it is reminiscent of Germany in 1934. So, so many people here in this country a Germany, Stalin, Mussolini, etc. can never happen, but they are dead wrong. Dead wrong.

They blather about how powerful the US is and how our Democracy , blah blah blah. In truth, our oppressors are implementing democracy (small D), and as long as they keep their EBTs, there is no problem. Best thing to do is to locate out of their likely pathways - bus/rail routes, interstates, etc. Days away from them.

They are horribly wrong...horribly. You people didn't think all these programs about Walkers and Zombies were about dead people did you?

45 posted on 04/06/2013 9:16:30 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Texas Fossil

Correction: Rightfully afraid of their government.


46 posted on 04/06/2013 9:17:18 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: FreedomPoster

This is true. I resolve to buy until it hurts, and then some. (When I can find it)


47 posted on 04/06/2013 9:18:14 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Gaffer

Really? So, you haven’t noticed the skyrocketing metal prices the last few years? The mineral shortages? This has been building up for a while now.


48 posted on 04/06/2013 9:20:14 AM PDT by arderkrag (An Unreconstructed Georgian, STANDING WITH RAND.)
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To: arderkrag

Of course there is normal inflation, but just yesterday, I bought three boxes of Tula 223 55 grain ball ammo for $5.37 a box. I have some old Federal and some old American Eagle (I think) from 20 years ago that wasn’t much cheaper than that. Granted the Tula is painted/lacuered steel case, the slugs are FMJ ball.

Sunday, three weeks ago on an early Sunday morning I hit on my Walmart and got a 420 round ammo can (new 30 carbine can) of XM855LC1 Federal Lake City plant ammo - SS109 penetrators for $175......) honest dealers are still selling ammo at Pre-Newtown prices - not like some online retailers I won’t name.


49 posted on 04/06/2013 9:27:02 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Georgia Girl 2

Well, Hell’s bells, Georgia Girl 2, I’ll take that PMR 30 off your hands for a tidy cash profit if you wanna sell it.


50 posted on 04/06/2013 9:29:26 AM PDT by Gaffer
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