Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

On Guemas et al (2013) ďRetrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decadeĒ
Watts Up With That? ^ | April 8, 2013 | Bob Tisdale

Posted on 04/09/2013 6:06:39 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

I received a number of emails about the newly published Guemas et al (2013) paper titled “Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade”. It’s paywalled. The abstract is here. It reads:

Despite a sustained production of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, the Earth’s mean near-surface temperature paused its rise during the 2000–2010 period1. To explain such a pause, an increase in ocean heat uptake below the superficial ocean layer2, 3 has been proposed to overcompensate for the Earth’s heat storage. Contributions have also been suggested from the deep prolonged solar minimum4, the stratospheric water vapour5, the stratospheric6 and tropospheric aerosols7. However, a robust attribution of this warming slowdown has not been achievable up to now. Here we show successful retrospective predictions of this warming slowdown up to 5 years ahead, the analysis of which allows us to attribute the onset of this slowdown to an increase in ocean heat uptake. Sensitivity experiments accounting only for the external radiative forcings do not reproduce the slowdown. The top-of-atmosphere net energy input remained in the [0.5–1] W m−2 interval during the past decade, which is successfully captured by our predictions. Most of this excess energy was absorbed in the top 700 m of the ocean at the onset of the warming pause, 65% of it in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Our results hence point at the key role of the ocean heat uptake in the recent warming slowdown. The ability to predict retrospectively this slowdown not only strengthens our confidence in the robustness of our climate models, but also enhances the socio-economic relevance of operational decadal climate predictions.

Not too surprisingly ClimateProgress has a post New Study: When You Account For The Oceans, Global Warming Continues Apace about the paper.

The abstract suggests that the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans are responsible for 65% of warming of global ocean heat content for the depths of 0-700 meters since 2000. However, the much-adjusted NODC ocean heat content data for the tropical Pacific (Figure 1) shows a decline in ocean heat content since 2000, and the ocean heat content for the Atlantic (Figure 2) has been flat since 2005.

Figure 1

Figure 1

###########

Figure 2

Figure 2

The abstract also mentions a new-found ability to predict slowdowns in warming. But the warming of tropical Pacific ocean heat content is dependent on the 3-year La Niña events of 1954-57, 1973-76 and 1998-01 and on the freakish 1995/96 La Niña, Figure 3. And the warming of sea surface temperatures for the Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific oceans, Figure 4, depends on strong El Niño events.

Figure 3

Figure 3

###########

Figure 4

Figure 4

CLOSING

Can Guemas et al (2013) can predict 3-year La Niñas and freakish La Niñas like the one in 1995/96? Can they predict strong El Niño events, like those in 1986/87/88, 1997/97 and 2009/10? Both are unlikely—the specialized ENSO forecast models have difficulty projecting beyond the springtime predictability barrier every year.

FURTHER READING

For further information about the problems with ocean heat content data, refer to the post Is Ocean Heat Content Data All It’s Stacked Up to Be?

And for further information about the natural warming of the global oceans, see “The Manmade Global Warming Challenge.”


TOPICS: Conspiracy; Science; Weather
KEYWORDS: climatechange; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax
Highlighting this:

***********************************************

Not too surprisingly ClimateProgress has a post:

New Study: When You Account For The Oceans, Global Warming Continues Apace

about the paper.

1 posted on 04/09/2013 6:06:39 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: SunkenCiv; Marine_Uncle; Fred Nerks; Carry_Okie; blam; Lorianne; Twotone; bigbob; NormsRevenge; ...

So now the AGW Climate Scientists are admitting that Global Warming has STALLED....but they just know that the Oceans are holding all of the extra heat and will SUDDENLY release it .....very soon.


2 posted on 04/09/2013 6:09:28 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: All

About Bob Tisdale

Research interest: the long-term aftereffects of El Niño and La Nina events on global sea surface temperature and ocean heat content. Author of the ebook Who Turned on the Heat? and regular contributor at WattsUpWithThat.

3 posted on 04/09/2013 6:17:43 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: All

177 Responses to On Guemas et al (2013) “Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade”

From the comments:

***************************************EXCERPT**********************************

Rodzki of Oz says:

April 8, 2013 at 8:30 pm

If they can predict El Niño events, the obvious test is: when will the next one begin?

4 posted on 04/09/2013 6:20:29 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: All
MORE:

**************************************EXCERPT**************************************

Chris B says:

April 8, 2013 at 8:54 pm

“The ability to predict retrospectively this slowdown not only strengthens our confidence in the robustness of our climate models, but also enhances the socio-economic relevance of operational decadal climate predictions.”

Translation: Send money.


5 posted on 04/09/2013 6:21:43 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: All
MORE:

**********************************EXCERPT****************************************

Mark and two Cats says:

April 8, 2013 at 8:57 pm

To explain such a pause, an increase in ocean heat uptake below the superficial ocean layer has been proposed to overcompensate for the Earth’s heat storage. Contributions have also been suggested from the deep prolonged solar minimum, the stratospheric water vapour, the stratospheric and tropospheric aerosols.
————————————

Nope, giant crabs.

Related thread posted earlier today:

‘Carbon’ to blame for giant crabs

6 posted on 04/09/2013 6:25:03 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: All
One More:

************************************EXCERPT*****************************************

Will Nitschke says:

April 8, 2013 at 8:58 pm

“Predict retrospectively” –

The ability to make predictions after the events have occurred shows how cutting edge climatology is. ;-)


7 posted on 04/09/2013 6:27:16 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
How can a "prediction" be "retrospective"? That's a blatantly self-contradictory combination of words.

I can safely predict that the SF Giants won the World Series in 2012. Gee, that was easy.

8 posted on 04/09/2013 6:30:05 PM PDT by Bob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Bob
But....But...It's a Scientific paper.

Check into the comments....They are laughing there at these clowns.

9 posted on 04/09/2013 6:35:24 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Ocean heat content has been in a decline since 2004/2005. Right about the time the last solar minimum began or about when Cycle 23 maximum fell down below 50 to 40 smoothed sunspots. Exactly what you would expect.

So far we have only received about 4 months of significant net warming from this current peak (assuming net warming occurs at smoothed sunspots > 60). Mostly neutral with some very minor almost insignificant warming. Definitely not enough to stop a near decade long cooling train.


10 posted on 04/09/2013 7:55:45 PM PDT by justa-hairyape
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

11 posted on 04/09/2013 7:59:27 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (I’m not a Republican, I’m a conservative! Pubbies haven't been conservative since before T.R.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

Wintry weather packing a punch for Colorado, Wyoming, South Dakota
http://iceagenow.info/2013/04/wintery-weather-packing-punch-colorado-wyoming-south-dakota/

Snow expected in Texas (and OK)
http://iceagenow.info/2013/04/snow-expected-texas-2/

Record cold grips Canadian Prairies (aka ‘Springter’)
http://iceagenow.info/2013/04/record-cold-grips-canadian-prairies/

8,000 dead sheep removed from farms (UK)
http://iceagenow.info/2013/04/8000-dead-sheep-removed-farms/

Blizzard warnings for Colorado
http://iceagenow.info/2013/04/blizzard-warnings-colorado/

Record snowfall in Anchorage – More on the way
http://iceagenow.info/2013/04/record-snowfall-anchorage/

Cold now threatens basic UK food supply
http://iceagenow.info/2013/04/cold-threatens-basic-uk-food-supply/

Long winter – Germany running out of natural gas
http://iceagenow.info/2013/04/long-winter-germany-running-natural-gas/

Ice breakers astounded at record spread of ice on the Baltic Sea
http://iceagenow.info/2013/04/ice-breakers-astounded-record-spread-ice-baltic-sea/


12 posted on 04/09/2013 8:04:39 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (I’m not a Republican, I’m a conservative! Pubbies haven't been conservative since before T.R.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Jack Hydrazine

So even the Icebreakers are surprised....something is going on.


13 posted on 04/09/2013 8:51:42 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

We continue to read the phrase “AGW Climate Scientists” when referring to climate studies. It has become a joke as we have discovered there are not many out there that have a clue. Let alone. How many can really be considered “scientist”.


14 posted on 04/09/2013 9:42:25 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Galt level is not far away......)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Time to try to get some sleep E. Do have a great upcoming day.


15 posted on 04/09/2013 9:43:52 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Galt level is not far away......)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Marine_Uncle
Nite,....lakers are still in the Hunt....

New Orleans was tough tonight.

16 posted on 04/09/2013 10:21:38 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach ((The Global Warming Hoax was a Criminal Act....where is Al Gore?))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Those sure are some purty graphs......


17 posted on 04/09/2013 10:28:54 PM PDT by GSWarrior
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

“ability to make predictions after the events have occurred”

Stunning gobbledygook!


18 posted on 04/10/2013 3:19:59 AM PDT by Dr. Bogus Pachysandra ( Ya can't pick up a turd by the clean end!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Like I always say...

Warm globally, cool locally!


19 posted on 04/10/2013 5:29:12 AM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (I’m not a Republican, I’m a conservative! Pubbies haven't been conservative since before T.R.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson