Skip to comments.Why you should be stoked about the sinking price of gold
Posted on 04/12/2013 8:34:12 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
"Things are looking up for the economy and, as a result, down for gold," says Nathaniel Popper at The New York Times. The value of our safe and shiny investment has slipped 17 percent since 2011, after 12 straight years of growth. "It is a remarkable turnabout for an investment that many have long regarded as one of the safest of all," Popper says.
When investors are worried about the value of U.S. currency, the safety of securities investments, and the overall health of the U.S. economy, they often trade in their cash for gold. So in the frightening wake of the financial collapse, shell-shocked investors flocked to bullion. Between 2009 and 2010, $5 billion flowed into gold-focused mutual funds.
But now, with the economy recovering slowly but surely, gold's attractiveness is fading — and fast. The precious metal's price has dropped 5.8 percent this year. On Wednesday, the value of an ounce of gold dropped another $28, bringing it to $1,558.
On the same day, Goldman Sachs cut its 2013 price forecast for the second time in six weeks — to $1,545 an ounce from $1,610 — and predicted that average prices would tumble even more in 2014, adjusting the forecast to $1,350 from $1,490. Société Générale in France released a similar message last week, claiming that the gold price is in bubble territory.
The Goldman analyst said in a report:
Given gold's recent lackluster price action and our economists' expectation that the acceleration in U.S. growth later this year to above-trend pace will support U.S. real rates, we are lowering our USD-denominated gold price forecast once again...While there are risks for modest near-term upside to gold prices should U.S. growth continue to slow down, we see risks to current prices as increasingly skewed to the downside as we move through 2013. In fact, should our expectation for lower gold prices continue to prove correct, the fall in prices could end up being faster and larger than our forecast. [Goldman Sachs, via ValueWalk]
So the good news: Gold is plummeting because the economy is recovering. And there's another silver lining, too: While those who invested in 2011 are losing, those who bought gold back in the late 90's are killing it. Even with the recent decline, gold is up 515 percent from 1999.
See also here:
Gold prices on track for worst week since late February
Friday but remained on track for their worst week since late February as strong equities lured investors seeking better returns, while outflows from exchange-traded funds underlined the shaky outlook for bullion.
Escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula have done little to stir safe-haven buying, though Gold could regain some of its lustre if the latest US earnings season disappoints.
Gold was steady at $1,560.84 an ounce by 0628 GMT, heading for a more than 1-percent decline this week, its third such drop in a row.
The metal has slipped around 7 percent so far this year, after rising for the last 12 years, lagging gains of more than 11 percent in the S&P 500 index.
“US equities have continued to defy gravity,” said CIMB regional economist Song Seng Wun, adding that the market had also shrugged off the threat of conflict with North Korea.
“Normally, given rising tensions, there will be flight to safety and gold will benefit. But I suppose at this point, while we are mindful of the increased risk, nobody really believes that the North Koreans will actually carry through on their threats.”
A US government agency has said North Korea has a nuclear weapon it can mount on a missile, adding an ominous dimension to threats of war by Pyongyang, but the assessment was swiftly dismissed by several US officials and South Korea.
Setting geopolitical tensions aside, wary investors cut exposure to gold, with total holdings at the world’s major bullion ETF falling to their lowest since early 2012.
US gold for June delivery was $1,560.90 an ounce, down $4.00.
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Yeah, the economy is recovering. Laughable.
Who needs Gold, when the FED is pumping $85 Billion a month into WallStreet?
Eye of hurricane - printing presses rolling
The economy is not an “event”, while the current drop in gold prices is more of an “event”. If Cyprus is selling their gold to cover their larger than expected losses and Cyprus is a template for the Eurozone, wouldn’t the curent drop in gold prices be due to an expectation that large volumes of gold will soon enter the market; i.e. supply vs. demand expectations?
Economy... “Recovering!?”. BS Alert! (Elections have consequences. He actually told the truth that time! We have another 3.92 years of further decline ahead of us, gang. Get used to it. )
Who cares about phony paper trading, Gold should be held for the value it will have during times of financial/economic chaos which will eventually happen with the collapse of the global socialist entitlement state.
In all seriousness, you can trade and sell often with gold. But, in reality most people purchase alittle as a hedge and or as a little emergency to barter with.
In the end, it will come down to trusting the dollar or Gold.
Falling metal prices is good news because it means I can buy more of it. There may be a few weeks or months in our economic future where it runs counter-trend but if anyone believes obamanomics will produce solid growth in wealth, they can sell me their gold/silver/platinum/palladium. I’m buying.
RE: In the end, it will come down to trusting the dollar or Gold.
OK, so tell me why we should trust the dollar.
What about lead?
I never said we should. Death to savers is the motto. But, part of the problem is that gold itself is primarily denominated in dollars. Your 1500 a oz today is less than the 1500 last year thanks to the dollar.
Yeh, OK its all good. I feel so much better now.
I am just wondering out loud if this is not a sign of deflation. The Feds money printing is not getting out to regular people, but instead is circling Washington DC and the Stock Market. Retail prices were off .6 % last month. Could it be that while the stock market seems to have no top, that he rest of us are getting by on less and depressing prices? The stock market is a great place for all those excess dollars printed by the FED to experience sudden death.
I hope they take gold to under a $1000 officially but what would realistically happen is "premiums" would skyrocket
..(they cant control demand!)...$1000 gold would have at least a $200-$300 “premium” for anybody to actually sell an oz.
My uneducated advise.....If gold goes down...BUY CHEAP INSURANCE!!!...LOTS OF IT...BE INSURANCE POOR!
Look at it this way....If u could buy $100k life insurance for a dollar...How much would u buy???
DID GOLD REALLY GO DOWN $55 DOLLARS?
No it didn’t.
The value of gold has not changed. 1 oz. of gold is still worth 1 oz. of gold.
Gold is the standard. It is real wealth. The value of our fiat currency, the dollar, has changed. The simple fact that that the dollar is not stable shows it is not real wealth.
And the reasons why the dollar changes its value in terms of gold are always unclear while the change is occurring.
There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch!
JP Morgan/Chase is massively shorting silver & gold and forcing the price down. I think the Fed is behind them and it’s just an effort to prop up the dollar.
LMAO - the sheep buy the whole scam about a 'recovery'. They also buy the phony unemployment numbers. You must be a bit more clever than our evil overlords to find out the truth.
A recovery would be better defined through JOB GROWTH rather than the first round of hyperinflation puffing up prices in the Wall Street casino.
Where are the jobs?
That tells a more true story than those lies about the unemployment rate and the stock market bubble that will burst at some point.
Simply put: 1.) Add up all the people in the labor market (working age adults)
2.) Figure out how many of them are working.
The rest are unemployed.
“But now, with the economy recovering slowly”
STOPPED READING THERE.
I tried two gold dealers this morning and was told by both, quote “we ain’t selling!” “we’ll buy, though.”
These places normally have plenty of gold and silver on hand and more than likely still do.
I used to buy from another place, but had to wait up to two months for an order to come in. Now I only buy where I can take it with me. I’m also getting lower over spot prices with these two dealers.
I mean, it's just amazing.
Kinda reminds me of that $10.00 book that came out way back when, titled "How to make a Million dollars like I did". Opening the book revealed this valuable get rich quick guidance: "Print up 100,000 books with this title on the cover and sell them to 10,000 other suckers." "You'll be a Millionaire in no time."
We should all really be thankful that there are such sharing rich people in our world, eh?