Skip to comments.Econ. Data Falls Most in 10 Months to 4-Month Lows...explanation?
Posted on 04/12/2013 12:22:00 PM PDT by mikelets456
Despite the fact that stocks have been going gangbusters for the past two weeks, the U.S. economy is far from recovered. In fact, based on recent misses in major macro-economic reports, things dont look very encouraging.
The last ten days have seen miss-after-miss in macro economic data in fact this is the biggest plunge in macro data in 10 months, Zero Hedge reports.
Consider the following economic reports:
Markit US PMI Miss ISM Manufacturing Miss ISM New York Miss Vehicle Sales Miss ADP Employment Miss ISM Services Miss Challenger Job Cuts Miss Initial Claims Miss Trade Balance Beat Non-Farm Payrolls Miss Hourly Earnings Miss NFIB Small Business Miss Wholesale Inventories Miss MBA Mortgage Apps Miss Import Prices Miss Initial Claims Beat Retail Sales Miss PPI Miss UMich Confidence Miss Business Inventories Miss
And this is what the decline in macro data looks like compared to stocks:
(Excerpt) Read more at theblaze.com ...
If the economy were actually improving, you would see a drastic change in employment figures.
Don't believe the numbers that Washington tells you and the lapdog media publishes. Those are manipulated numbers designed for public consumption and approval.
The real story can be deciphered from the raw data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
There you can see what the "Labor Force Participation Rate" is. That is, how many people of employable age are actually participating in the labor force (working).
There is no recovery without job growth. Since the day Obozo won the election in 2008, jobs have been rapidly evaporating and NOT coming back.
The two images above tell a more true story than those lies about the unemployment rate and the stock market bubble that will burst at some point.
1.) Add up all the people in the labor market (working age adults)
2.) Figure out how many of them are working.
The rest are unemployed.
Can this still be Bush’s fault?
The stock market is the increasing depository of a good part of the Bernanke induced easy money, NOT the increasing depository of growing underlying value.
Bernanke is trying for a “Greenspan” - to get cashouts of ever-boosting stock prices to spread elsewhere in the economy.
What was that - the Greenspan? It was called the Hi Tech and then the Dot Com bubbles and the two quickly descended (fell) and the drawback led to the recession that began before the election in 2000.
There is NO economic substitute for sound money and little that can be cured in an economy without it; even though the “medicine” of unsound money can become a virus that keeps the corpse it has created “alive” in the manner of the living dead; limping from recession to recession in a worsening cycle of slower and slower REAL (adjusted for inflation) growth.
“Can some explain what “miss” means and how this affects the stock market... “
“Explanations” serve very little other than to pacify our own minds and their innate desire for some sort of order or logic.
When liberals see an objective disaster, they think “Bush’s fault!” and this satisfies their peanut brains. When they see something they like, they say “0bama’s helping the little people again!”
I’m not saying YOUR brain works that way, I am saying OUR brains work that way.
So asking for an explanation is nonfunctional in terms of anything much more than momentary perception.
My advice, FWIW is to remain objective. Seek all the info you want or wish, but do not overindulge in your own confirmation bias. IOW, don’t get obsessed with reading too much that agrees with your particular viewpoint.
Oh yeah, and other than that, it’s all a crapshoot anyway. Stocks are up, in general, IMHO, because there is simply no other place to invest that is not an asymmetrical commitment to something or other that could be outlawed the next day/week/month. In this environment, it’s not surprising that folks like stuff that has an easy to execute “eject” button. Many stocks pay a decent dividend and the three-letter (NYSE) ones have been around for a while. So those are thought of as good bets. They are not risk free, nothing is, and they are secularly highish, after a 4 year 138% rally from SP 666.