Posted on 04/17/2013 6:46:11 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Most people in our recent debate over the future of Windows 8 thought that the operating system could be saved. I'm sure many people in 1491 thought that the Earth was flat, too.
The very day the debate came to an end, this headline appeared: IDC: Global PC shipments plunge in worst drop in a generation. Sure, a lot of that was due to the growth of tablets and smartphones and the rise of the cloud, but Windows 8 gets to take a lot of the blame too. After all, the debate wasn't whether or not Windows 8 was any good. It's not. The debate was over whether it could be saved.
Indeed even Microsoft defenders are no longer talking about Windows 8 in terms of a stand-alone project but instead they're spinning it as Windows 8 being "more like a living organism, made partly from familiar bits that have evolved over the last two decades, with several new strands of DNA tossed in. It’s due to be updated for more often, and it’s part of a much larger hardware-apps-services ecosystem that is also changing quickly."
Please. Changing too fast for the user-base was what turned many former Windows fans into Windows 8 haters. Some people think I've put too much emphasis on Windows 8's dismal Metro interface for why Windows 8 has failed. I don't think so. This isn't a matter of judging a book by its cover; the user interface (UI) is everything for computer users. If the UI alienates users, you lose them. It's as simple as that.
My comrade pointed out that I declared Vista dead six years ago, but that the Aero interface, which I like, started there. True, but that wasn't the point. I was right. Vista did die. Microsoft had to bring back XP to stop users from fleeing to Linux on netbooks.
Now, Microsoft could revive Windows 7 sales, or make Aero Windows 8.x's interface, but from everything we can see about Windows 8.1, aka Blue, that's not what they're doing. Instead, Microsoft seems to be doubling down on Metro.
Idiots.
You think the least they could do is give users a choice between a real Aero interface and Metro, but no, they won't do that. I don't know what it is, but lately, UI "experts" seem to want to create interfaces that only appeal to their builders and not to any of their users. It's not just Microsoft with Aero. In Linux, GNOME made similar blunders with its 3.x line and many former Ubuntu Linux users think Canonical went on the wrong track with Unity.
Yes, we are entering a post-PC world. Tablets and smartphones are becoming more important... to sales. PCs are no more going to go away than mainframes did. We're still going to be using them in offices and homes for the foreseeable future. They let us easily do things that we need to do every day that we can't easily do with a tablet or a phone.
Perhaps most of our computing will move to the cloud, but you know what device we'll still be using for most of our interactions? It will be a PC, simply because it's easier to enter data with a real keyboard than any other interface.
True, it would be great if you could use one operating system for your PC, tablet, and smartphone. Besides Microsoft with Windows 8.x, Canonical with Ubuntu, Mozilla with Firefox OS, and Google with Android/Chrome are all making similar bets.
But I don't think that's essential. I think Microsoft could continue to dominate the important, but no longer growing, desktop market for years, even decades to come. However, I don't think they will.
It looks like Microsoft is betting all its chips on the silly notion that Metro will be the one true interface for its entire PC and device line. There's only one little problem with this idea. Sorry, but I have to say it again, look at the numbers: Metro-interface operating systems have already failed.
Fewer people than with any previous edition of Windows want Windows 8. Vista actually looks successful when you compare it to Windows 8! As for tablets and smartphones, I think my ComputerWorld colleague Preston Gralla summed it up nicely in his analysis of ABI Research's report on 2013's tablet market: "Windows tablets don't even rate a blip in the $64 billion tablet market."
So, what do the numbers show? Not what do you want them to show, and not what would your faith in Microsoft would have you believe, but what do they actually add up to? The sum is that Microsoft is failing to hold on to the desktop market and that it has no impact whatsoever on smartphones and tablets.
Windows 8 may not just be a failure in and of itself. Unless Microsoft changes course, this may be the end of the Windows domination period in end-using computing. Indeed, some major financial firms, such as Goldman Sachs and Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers (KPCB), already believe that Windows has crested and that it's all downhill from here.
PC sales are down because the ones people bought a few years ago still work just fine, and do everything they need.
Get a life.
Just guessing, but maybe the stock was over valued in the first place.
It seems to be a pattern: computer company loses some sales, and they push the panic button, and completely change what made them popular in the first place. They refuse to listen to their users and double down. Then they disappear. This happened to AOL and myspace; now it’s happening to facebook. Microsoft is doing the same thing.
There is no earthly reason that they can’t have one operating system for PC and one for tablet, instead of a horrible hybrid that doesn’t work well as either.
AS a long time business user of Windows I can say for myself that Win 8 has finally made me consider getting a Mac when I buy my next PC. Win 8 is awful. The biggest base of Windows users are those of us sitting at our desks getting work done (on a deadline) at our PC. We have mastered Windows over the years and use it to run our business. Making me learn an entire new interface is crazy. I don’t want to lean a new way to do everything. I’m very functional using the old ways I have invested years in learing. I don’t have the time or patience. Neither do my employees. I can’t afford to re-train them them, or spend time troubleshootING with them every time they discover they can’t do some basic task the way they’ve been doing it for years. Heck, without instruction I can see it taking a fairly competent windows user a couple of hours just to figure out how to shut the thing down or reboot it. I HATE WINDOWS 8.
Try the New FREE REPUBLIC FIX FOR FREE app! Here's a Sample!
"Apple does not have their Mac OS look like a iPad or iPhone interface - Why did Microsoft entirely scrap their computer OS and make it operate like a tablet McDonald's Cash Register? Sheer idiocy. "
The pending “death” of Windows or Microsoft is greatly exaggerated. What I believe we’re really seeing is the continuing split in the market between those with consumer technology needs, and those with actual computing needs.
Since the dawn of the PC-age in the early 80’s, you needed an actual computer to do everything for both markets: individual consumers sending email, playing games, browsing the web, playing music or watching video; contrasted with computing users that are heavy with word-processing, spreadsheets, databases, photo- and video-editing, and more.
The fact is that portable devices, like smart-phones and tablets, have evolved to fulfill 95% of the needs of the retail consumer when coupled with internet-everywhere (WiFi, cellular data, etc.). It’s logical (to me) that PC’s would lose market-share in any battle for these users.
But smart-phones & tablets will not replace true computing needs, just based on form-factor alone. I have yet to see any technology that will effectively replace the keyboard, mouse and screen for financial analysts and accountants, contract attorneys, writers, or any other of the myriad users of computing technology in a professional business environment.
What will the future look like? I’d bet that there will be a retreat of PC-type technology, behind the walls of businesses, while the portable tech (smartphone, tablet) becomes a hybrid “bridge” between the business and personal lives of individuals. Of course there will be the all-personal user of these devices - those that don’t work, or don’t use a computer in their work - and they’ll be largely fine with these devices alone.
Been a Mac user since getting an LC in 1992. I’ve eschewed PCs all that time, for the usual reasons, even though Macs are, IMO, trying to do too, too many things for young kids, and thereby losing some of their user friendliness over time.
Among other interests, I run a small publishing company. Three different hand conditions/diseases prompted me, a poor typist to begin with, to get DragonSpeak for dictation. I researched it extensively on the web, and found out that:
1. It was unstable on a Mac platform, prone to crashes. My Macs crash or freeze up only once every several years (usually requiring only simple, self-accomplished solutions) - I’m simply NOT going to use something that’s prone to crashes.
2. DragonSpeak is much more stable on a PC. But ...
3. Best not to get the latest DragonSpeak 12 - the 11 does fewer things but is far more stable and user-friendly. And ...
4. Whatever you do, don’t try to run it with Windows 8 - get Windows 7, and you will thank your lucky stars that you did.
So, I broke down and got a well-reviewed PC preloaded with Windows 7, and I installed DS 11. I struggled with this unnecessarily unhelpful piece of garbage for the longest time. I studied up on PCs. I got geek friends to come over and teach me the basics of negotiating of the system.
The contraption now sits there on a side desk buried under surrounding stacks of projects. And, most likely, there it will sit, for a long, long time.
And to think: I might have had a bad experience with my first foray into the PC world if I had bought Windows 8.
Microsoft seems to have a history of releasing “upgraded” new versions of successful operating systems that are total duds..e.g. Windows ME & Vista. However, Windows XP has remained popular for years. I recently switched from Windows XP to Windows 7 and I think Windows 7 is great. Somehow I think Windows 8 was not ready for prime time but released too early.
Palm II
I think they released it as essentially a big beta test to get feedback for Windows 9, which will be released right when Enterprises will be serious about replacing their PCs with tablets.
Windows needs something that hasn’t been innovated for a long time.
Remember when they *finally* got around to getting rid of 3.5” disks? It was a technology that had just sat idle for years, until somebody finally said that everybody needs something better.
Now look at the PC. It is downright antique in design, being put together in much the same way that the original IBM PC (1981) was put together.
Instead it should by now be using a standardized modular hardware assembly. Like big building blocks with LEGO connectors between them. You want to upgrade? No problem. Unplug it, pull out the block to upgrade, and put the new block in its place. Plug it back it. Done.
And the bit with all the fans, with the inside of the case soon covered with a thick layer of dust. Why not seal the case and use a/c to keep its internal temperature an efficient chill? The fans are still there, but just to keep air circulation.
Next, how about some new peripherals and software?
There is a huge number of potential peripherals that could be invented, so why haven’t they?
RE: I think they released it as essentially a big beta test to get feedback for Windows 9
My personal take — If you want to go with Windows, always get the ODD NUMBERED version, not the even numbered ones.
I love articles like this. It gives Apple users the opportunity to sniff over how awesome their computing experience is.
I think Android / Chrome is the next personal operating system. How many devices are using Android now?
Google is slowly pushing everyone out.
I know how they could do it all over again.
Strip the bloat out of Windows; pull off all the “Fisher-Price” stuff, strip out DRM, standardize stuff like control panel in specific places, and make it friendlier to developers.
Make a leaner, faster, simpler, less bloated OS.
But that ain’t the Microsoft way.
You:
“Apple does not have their Mac OS look like a iPad or iPhone interface - Why did Microsoft entirely scrap their computer OS and make it operate like a tablet? Sheer idiocy. “
Try the New FREE REPUBLIC FIX FOR FREE app! Here’s a Sample!
“Apple does not have their Mac OS look like a iPad or iPhone interface - Why did Microsoft entirely scrap their computer OS and make it operate like a tablet McDonald’s Cash Register? Sheer idiocy. “
What the Hell does this mean?
I use Dragon NaturallySpeaking and have for some years. My first version was 9 running XP on a Compaq laptop.
I now have the 11 version running in Windows 7.
BUT, my Windows 7 is just a window in my MacMini. This is done via a software program called Parallels 8.
For me it's the best of both worlds. The Mac is a stable platform with very few hiccups, and I do virtually all my work in the Microsoft virtual machine - and I turn it off when I do not need it.
Just thought you might like the information for the future.
Good luck with your hand issues.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.