Skip to comments.90% Of Green Stocks Will Go Bankrupt - So What?
Posted on 04/28/2013 4:56:49 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Robert Wagner has written one of the most intriguing articles I've seen here at Seeking Alpha, titled "90% Of Green Stocks Will Go Bankrupt ... So Buy The Sector?" He's right -- 90% of green stocks will go bankrupt. But this is true in every area of technology, and always has been.
Only one computer company from the 1950s remains a player in the space: IBM (IBM). (Honeywell (HON) is in other businesses and Unisys (UIS) is not a mainstream player.) Only two companies from the 1970s PC revolution are still in the game -- Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT). The vast majority of competitors for both of these companies went bankrupt, many of them quite long ago.
The same, by the way, is true in the Internet sector. Excite, Lycos, Netscape, and CMGI were once highflyers, and they're now all as dead as Pets.com. Google (GOOG) wasn't even public when the sector crashed at the turn of the century, and if you held Amazon.com (AMZN) you took a wild ride downward before it came back.
It's just the way technology proceeds. A new opportunity is found, a bunch of folks go after it, a few rise to the top of the heap, the big boys come in, and consolidation occurs. Maybe one company in 10 makes it through this gauntlet. So don't invest in technology?
These are the odds that venture capitalists deal with every day. They know that most of the companies the best companies take on will fail. Maybe two in 10 will do OK and make back what was invested, after a lot of work. They live for that one in 10 shot, the long-odds winner that makes it all worthwhile.
(Excerpt) Read more at seekingalpha.com ...
This is especially true in market sweet spots. But the amount of renewable energy being produced keeps going up, in every sector, maybe 50% per year. It will continue to do so because the economics remain favorable. California has just joined the parade of places where it's cheaper to build solar capacity than to buy electricity from the grid, so now is when Wagner tells us to abandon the space? Maybe he wants us to buy buggy whips.
People have to eat. Why not money in sound dividend paying food stocks.
As long as its private money, go ahead. I would be more inclined to short, however.
So the key is to take a short position on 100% of green stocks and win 90% of the time.
The green sector is heavily reliant on government subsidies and mandates and few of these boondoggles would have any viability in a real market. A good example is the Chevy Volt, a vehicle that has almost no significant market, meets few needs of ordinary consumers and even with massive government subsidies and tax breaks for buyers has been a market flop.
I worked for Control Data. There was IBM and the BUNCH (B: Burroughs, U: UNIVAC, N: National Cash Register, C - Control Data, and H - Honeywell)
Sounds like “Seeking Alpha” is “Seeking to divest” of loser stock .... seeking a bigger fool!
Hewlett-Packard in Packard’s garage in Palo Alto, 1939, incorporated on August 18, 1947, and went public on November 6, 1957. wiki.
True, but better get out before the Government declares winners and losers! This is obviously a Government exercise and those who don’t want to be caught in the middle (non influential Democrat officials) should abandon the exercise soon! Those that stay are Democratic operatives or ignorant of the markets. there are winners and losers you know...
Is there a 3x or more short green ETF?
How many stocks are left from the beginning NY Stock Exchange? Probably close to zero. Stocks come and go. You just have to be careful to get out before they bust. Green Stocks will be no different. Get in, stay awhile and then leave. Not a difficult process as we have been dealing with stocks for many years and will for many more years to come. I don’t personally have any green stocks, but I would not be shocked if I had some green company types in one of my five mutual funds or my 401K or IRA or something. I don’t care really about the green stocks but if one of the fund managers feel it is important for my mutuals that is fine with me.
“Sounds like Seeking Alpha is Seeking to divest of loser stock .... seeking a bigger fool!”
Seeking Alpha has a few good posters and writers. The site is loaded with left wingers ready to jump on anyone daring to point out how dangerous left wingers are to our economy.
You have nailed the grim reality of the supposedly green stocks. Without massive tax $’s funneled into their startups and later on, they would never have gotten off the ground. Many didn’t get off in spite of massive infusions of our tax $’s.
“The green sector is heavily reliant on government subsidies and mandates and few of these boondoggles would have any viability in a real market. A good example is the Chevy Volt, a vehicle that has almost no significant market, meets few needs of ordinary consumers and even with massive government subsidies and tax breaks for buyers has been a market flop.”
” I dont care really about the green stocks but if one of the fund managers feel it is important for my mutuals that is fine with me.”
Many of the mutual funds are owned and controlled by liberals. Then, their fund managers often buy losing left wing controlled companies like the NY Slimes and these losing gang greens. They use our precious investment $’s to keep afloat.
Which is why I wised up an got out all but two mutual funds, over a decade ago and went to ETF’s where their holdings were selected by what each company did. If left wing companies were dropped out the S&P 500 due to poor management, those losers didn’t get my $’s to survive and push liberal agendas.
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