Posted on 05/21/2013 6:29:09 AM PDT by topher
The Gulf of Mexico's warm air is part of the ingredient for tornado alley in the US. The other ingredient in this mix is cool/cold Canadian air.
The United States was blessed with very few tornadoes in March and April of 2013.
But the United States was going through an extendeded cold spell this Spring.
How cold? Living in Louisiana, the mosquitoes seemed to be blown into the Gulf of Mexico [by a frigid Northernly wind] as fish food most of this Spring. There have been very few mosquitoes bugging us this Spring [so far].
But now the bad news: for the tornado season to start in mid-May/late-May is a very bad thing. Why? Because the days are much longer in late May than they are in late March/early April.
The heating of the sun helps to provide energy for thunderstorms.
Tornado alley is an area where warm air from the Gulf of Mexico streaming North to clash with Canadian air streaming down to the South.
Since daytime heating is longer right now, there is the threat of the tornadoes for a longer period than there would be in late March/early April.
It seems like the days are considerably longer right now than when they were in late March (around Easter Sunday). Hence, a longer day means that more heat is generated for thunderstorms in the afternoon hours.
Without access to the weather data, it is unclear if having longer daytime heating will make these storms stronger.
Apparently, the US Weather Service has been lulled to sleep by the long cool spell this Spring.
Unfortunately, it may have taken the deaths of about 20 school children in Moore, Oklahoma to wake them up...
You said ... “Apparently, the US Weather Service has been lulled to sleep by the long cool spell this Spring.”
BUT ... I don’t see anything that indicates that there were lulled to sleep or have done anything different than they always do.
What are you talking about?
This data seems to imply that afternoon heating is a factor in tornado [severe thunderstorm] development.
You are forgetting the cool air coming down from the Rockies too...
Joe Bastardi says it is because global cooling is worse then we thought. We have atmospheric temperatures dropping and less moisture. So the global oceans are also cooling. Colder oceans means less moisture (less evaporation).
If we are heading back into the cold phase of the Ice Age, summers will eventually disappear and be replaced by one long spring. So in Tornado Alley they will have two seasons. Cold/Snowy and Tornado season.
You also have to add into your equation the sun currently being in its moderate to strong phase of cycle 24. Means more energy during the longer summer photo period (daytime). Next winter the sun should be ramping down in intensity and we wont see this moderate to strong activity for a very long time.
Not just severity, but developmental speed could be affected by your point. Have literally watched super cells in west Texas pop up from clear skies to completely cloudy skies in less then an hour this spring/summer. That was the problem in Oklahoma. Fast development out of nowhere.
That’s a tricky assumption. A few years ago, some climate researchers went to the Tropics to study humidity, cloud formation, etc., based on the theory that the hotter weather and warmer ocean should be substantially increasing evaporation and cloud formation.
Instead they found not a cloud in the sky. Perhaps a year later, NASA got a shock when it was discovered that the thermosphere the atmosphere from about 85km to 600km had substantially contracted, about a third, without explanation.
Bottom line: nobody has a clue.
The forces at work, in combination with each other, are so vastly greater than our scale that we barely grasp that they exist, but have no idea what they do, or how.
Maybe there was benefit in writing this thread...
Satellites See Storm System that Created Moore, Okla., Tornado
BTW - This spring/summer will probably be the worse scenario for awhile. Will be less tornadoes once the cooling sets in harder and the sun settles down.
hmm...
Statistical analysis contraindicates your thesis.
US tornadoes are most likely to occur in May.
The days are longer because now we have Daylight Savings Time (do I HAVE to /s?). And Global Warming.
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