The College Football Czar's 2013 Season Preview

Welcome to the 2013 season preview issue of The College Football Czar, a seasonal sports publication by the author and editor of The Shinbone. In the coming months, you will find weekly analyses of upcoming college football action posted at this site. To find out more, please see the Ground Rules.

This issue contains conference preview capsules, potential upsets to watch for, bowl projections, and a guide to help you locate head coaches on the move. Most importantly, it includes early nominees for the Lardhead of the Year Award, which the Czar never gets around to actually awarding, but for which he dispenses nominations copiously.

Ron Turner ….. Florida Int’l ….. QB coach T.B. Buccaneers ….. Mario Cristobal

Doug Martin ….. New Mexico State ….. off. coord. Boston Coll. ….. DeWayne Walker

Rod Carey ….. Northern Illilnois ….. OL coach No. Illinois ….. Dave Doeren

Ron Caragher ….. San Jose State ….. head coach San Diego (I-AA) ….. Mike MacIntyre

Willie Taggart ….. South Florida ….. head coach W. Kentucky ….. Skip Holtz

Todd Monken ….. Southern Miss ….. off. coord. Oklahoma St. ….. Ellis Johnson

Kliff Kingsbury ….. Texas Tech ….. off. coord. Texas A&M ….. Tommy Tuberville

Bobby Petrino ….. Western Kentucky ….. head coach Arkansas (’11) ….. Willie Taggart

P.J. Fleck ….. Western Michigan ….. WR coach T.B. Buccaneers ….. Bill Cubit

The following coaches will have a difficult time hanging onto their noggins through the 2013 season:

Troy Calhoun, Air Force – The seventh-year Falcon coach has led his team to a bowl appearance in each of his first six seasons, but this has largely been the product of namby-pamby scheduling. Considering that the AFA has played in a weak conference, and must use two nonconference games to schedule rivals Army and Navy, there’s no excuse for facing seven lower-division teams in six years. Despite this, Calhoun posted his first losing season in 2012, at 6-7 with a dismal showing against Rice in the Armed Forces Bowl. During last year’s campaign, they fell to lowly UNLV and Army, while their win over 7-6 Nevada was their only victory over a winning Division I-A team in the past two seasons. If the Air Force slogan “Aim High” still applies, another 6-6 regular season with a win over I-AA Colgate won’t be enough.

Terry Bowden, Akron – The former Auburn skipper, whose 1993 team famously went undefeated while on probation, basically promised more of the same when he arrived to coach the roos last season. Bowden bluntly admitted that he had no qualms about building his program with castoffs that the bigger programs didn’t want because they weren’t exactly model students or citizens. Despite this win-at-all-costs attitude, the season was heavy on costs and light on wins, at 1-11. His predecessor, Rob Ianello, coached the Zips for only two seasons before being fired, with a record of 2-22. If Bowden’s name and his band of mercenaries cannot improve on that mark, there’s no reason he should be any more deserving of patience. Rumor has it his old partners at ABC are already hiding under their desks with the lights off, in case he comes knocking.

Rich Ellerson, Army – The Black Knights finished his second year as head coach by winning a bowl game for the first time since 1985, but two years later, the former Cal Poly coach is losing his grip. The Cadets are now 17-32 on Ellerson’s watch, and they’ve extended their losing streak against Navy to eleven with four more defeats. Presiding over an entire class that has never beaten the Middies is one thing that’s sure to generate calls for the coach’s head on West Point.

Lane Kiffin, USC – The Czar cannot recall ever seeing a coach do as little with as much as Kiffin did during last year’s 7-6 collapse. Senior quarterback Matt Barkley publicly received much of the blame for that outcome, but just look how totally inept the SC offense was after he was injured late in the season. Kiffin’s NCAA head coaching career has consisted of four winning seasons, for what that’s worth, but a 7-6 record at Tennessee, followed by the downfall of a once-dominant Southern Cal program, can hardly be deemed successful. Neither can the 5-15 record he’d previously posted as head coach of the Oakland Raiders. Never mind competing with Pac 12 North powers Stanford and Oregon; if Kiffin’s club can’t at least win its own division, his A.D. may decide to do a little subtraction.

Bobby Hauck, UNLV – There aren’t many sure things in Vegas, apart from knowing that Wayne Newton will sing Danke Schoen like a drag queen. The odds sure seemed to be in Hauck’s favor, though, after he’d won back-to-back Division I-AA championships at Montana, where he compiled a record of 80-17. So far with the Rebels, however, he has won just two games in each of his first three seasons, for a combined mark of 6-32. This is largely due to his inability to find a reliable quarterback, as well as a lack of stability from having already fired three offensive coordinators. When the Rebs hired Hauck, they had also interviewed journeyman coach Dennis Franchione. Now that the man they passed over has made Texas State competitive during its first season in Division I-A, they may be looking to correct their mistake.

Jim Grobe, Wake Forest – During his 12 years in Winston-Salem, the veteran coach is 73-74, but he has at this point endured four consecutive losing seasons. Grobe is now trying to get back to the kind of versatile, misdirection rushing attack he’d brought with him from Ohio U. The question is why he’d ever strayed from it after winning the ACC in 2006. Last season, Grobe’s team barely averaged 100 rushing yards per game, while scoring just 18.5 points. With six seniors starting on each side of the ball, and an early schedule consisting of I-AA Presbyterian, BC, UL-Monroe and Army, he’s got to come through with his first winning season since 2008, or else he can pack his bags and go Grobe-trotting.

* New rules – Most of this year’s rule changes are minor, but there’s one big one that is sure to create plenty of controversy. If a player is determined to have intentionally hit a defenseless opponent above the shoulders, he is to be ejected from the game. If the infraction occurs during the second half or overtime, the ejection will carry over through the first half of the following game. If consistently properly called, this could be a great idea, but the College Football Czar fears that officials will initially enforce it overzealously, in order to create a “point of emphasis.” In particular, he expects to see lots of highly questionable ejections late in games, against teams whose next opponent just happens to be Notre Dame.

* NCAA rebellion brewing – In what NCAA president Mark Emmert is calling a “Division I governance dialogue,” the organization has met with major conference commissioners to discuss “fundamental changes” in how their athletic programs are required to operate. Few details have been made public, but one of them is a proposal that athletic scholarships should include a small “full cost of attendance” stipend in addition to tuition, books, room and board. The Czar is all in favor of that idea, which would make it easier for those athletes who are inclined to play by the rules to do so. If those commissioners really want to fix the NCAA, however, they’ll also demand that it start resisting the onerous and outright illegal Title IX enforcement regulations. Perhaps then, the organization could devote itself to actually promoting college athletics, or something.

* Fox Sports 1 – If you’ve been annoyed in the past by missing football games because they haven’t been carried by your local Fox Sports affiliate, those days are over. Starting on August 17th, FS1 hits the airwaves, as a national channel comparable to NBC Sports (formerly Versus) and CBS Sports (nee, CSTV). If you’re reading this prior to that date, and you’re not sure if your cable or satellite system is carrying it, check and see if you have a Fox-affiliated racing channel called SPEED. That is the channel that is going to become FS1. Its coverage will feature games from the Pac 12, Big XII and Conference USA, and will begin with Utah hosting intrastate rival Utah State on Thursday, August 29th.

* The P-word – For a while there, the Czar thought the NCAA had finally gotten something right by opting for the plus-one championship format. Alas, the Powers-That-Be-Stupid have instead set the eventual implosion of the college football universe into motion, and they’ve done it through their injudicious use of semantics. As long as the plus-one – which begins in 2014 – was perceived only as a single, additional game, matching the winners of the two biggest bowl games, everything would have worked out fine. Now that the NCAA has agreed to call it a “playoff,” however, it has established the premise for its endless expansion.

We can guess what will happen by having already seen it in the lower divisions. Almost immediately, there will be a #5 team that is outraged at having been snubbed. This would be irrelevant under the plus-one paradigm, because the point is to get the best teams in the championship. There is usually a good argument to be made that a third team might really be the best, but never a fifth. The playoff mindset, on the other hand, cares less about getting the best teams in the title game than about chasing some elusive concept of “fairness.”

Let’s say, for example, LSU goes 11-1, having lost only to Alabama, and is therefore the fourth team in, whereas #5 Oklahoma State is left out, also with a record of 11-1. OSU fans would argue that their team, being champion of a major conference, is more deserving than an LSU club that didn’t even win its own division. The way a playoff would resolve this, as it has at every other level, would be to expand the field to eight, so that every apparently deserving team gets in. Of course, this would inevitably create the next controversy, about which team is really the legitimate #8.

To be fair to “the little guy,” every conference champion would have to be invited. Since there are 10 conferences, the field would quickly swell to 16, with six at-large bids. Obviously, these would not be the 16 best teams, so a ruckus would ensue about why Northern Illinois and Arkansas State should be included, but not a Georgia team that is clearly superior. Then, a handful of play-in games would be added, or else the field would simply be doubled again, to 32.

The idea that such an extended playoff can coexist with bowl games is balderdash. The bowls would be so badly downgraded that their sponsorships would dry up and they’d blow away. If you don’t see a problem with that, then ask yourself, on the week between Christmas and New Year’s, what game do you plan to watch on Wednesday night? The answer would be none. In a playoff, the games could only take place over weekends, meaning that the phenomenon of Bowl Week, which actually runs closer to two weeks, would be no more.

The greatest postseason in college sports would be dead. Instead of having at least one great football game on every night, the fans would only get four games one weekend, followed by two games the next weekend, and one the week after that. Not only would that make for an inferior postseason, but by lowering the bar for championship contention, big regular season games would be devalued by the knowledge that both teams would probably qualify anyway. Most people who had been clamoring for a playoff would come down with the worst case of buyers’ remorse of their lives, but it’d be too late to go back for an exchange.

Everything that makes college football stand out from other sports will have been destroyed, and all because the NCAA had to placate a bunch of cantankerous rattlenoggins by agreeing to call the plus-one a “playoff.”

* Team #125 – The Georgia State Panthers started up their football program in 2010, and already, they’re making the climb to Division I-A to join the Sun Belt Conference. Last year, GSU went 1-11 in Division I-AA, and now, they’ve graduated to the top division, with a nonconference game at Alabama? Don’t look for the Atlanta-based school to light a fire under its fans for quite a few seasons yet. In recognition of this, they’re keeping the upper levels of the 71,000-seat Georgia Dome closed, so that as far as they’re concerned, the capacity is only 28,000. They’ll surely average nowhere near that, what with their games being like watching paint dry – in a bleak, depressing, miserable cave that makes for really crappy TV.

* Oregon ducks sanctions – and rightly so, regardless of the desire of the usual football Commies (you know who you are) to see every successful program brought to its knees. According to the NCAA rulebook-in-a-blender, it is perfectly legal for a program to hire a scouting service like the one operated by Willie Lyles. It’s just that the scouting service is not allowed to actively recruit a player to choose a particular school. Lyles engaged in that sort of illegal recruiting, and the NCAA concluded coach Chip Kelly didn’t know about it, but should have. That’s so picayune, it’s questionable whether UO’s three-year, one-scholarship penalty is even warranted. Yet the prevailing opinion among ESPN analysts (with the notable exception of Ivan Maisel) has been that the Ducks should have been slapped with the same penalty that Ohio State was, including the bowl ban. The two programs’ circumstances are worlds apart, but all the football Commies can see is that Ohio State is a great program and therefore must be destroyed, and Oregon is another great program and therefore must also be destroyed.

* Conference realignment – The ACC continues to pillage the Big East, which does the same to Conference USA, which does likewise to the Sun Belt. The Big East is now known as the American Athletic Conference, because the name “Big East” has been bought by the breakaway “Catholic 7” basketball schools. The WAC is now known as … um … nothing. As a football conference, the WAC is no more, with all of its better teams having been subsumed by the Mountain West, and Idaho and New Mexico State left to fend for themselves as Independents. Both schools will eventually rejoin the Sun Belt Conference.

The Big Ten will remain at 12 teams for this year, but in 2014 it expands to 14 with the addition of Rutgers and Maryland. There is still no plan to rename the conference, but they will upon expansion rename the divisions. No longer will the league try to contrive a championship game between its pet teams Ohio State and Michigan, but instead will divide itself geographically, in a move that will be welcomed by traveling fans. Therefore, this will be the last year for the confusing and dopey Leaders and Legends divisions, which will be replaced by the more conventional and sane titles of East and West

* Cupcake competitive-eating – The College Football Czar declares this year’s winner to be Vanderbilt. The Commodores’ biggest nonconference game is their season finale against woeful Wake Forest. Aside from that, they face Division I-AA Austin Peay, Umass, which is in only its second year of I-A play and is far from competitive, and UAB, which has had virtually no success since joining the big leagues in 1996. A vast majority of teams have scheduled a lower-division opponent this year, with Georgia Tech and Clemson having slated two apiece.

* “Rainbow” returns – In the year 2000, the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors’ football team jettisoned the “Rainbow” from its title, thinking that the symbol’s prominence in the gay activist movement might inhibit recruiting. It seemed a peculiar decision at the time, considering that they were being coached by a man named June who wore flowers around his neck. By now, UH has surely seen the value of the positive media coverage the Warriors will receive by coming out, even if they were never in. Besides, their voluntary reversal of the decision may spare them the otherwise inevitable thought crimes trial a few years down the road. If only they’d explained their previous decision by claiming that “Rainbow” was “hostile and abusive” to the bacon, lettuce and tomato community, the issue would have ended right there.

* Cringe-inducing cliches – For the sake of humanity, we must ban the following phrases from all future college football broadcasts: signature win, unanswered points, offensive guru, old school, who wants it more.

There are two cliches in particular that help lardheaded gamblers convince themselves that their system would work, if only the refs would stop ripping them off. One of these is “it all depends on the spot.” Over the course of a game, you’ll probably question a few spots, but for the most part, this is one thing that the officials do consistently well. They are not just deciding where to put the ball arbitrarily. It doesn’t depend on the spot; it depends on whether or not the ball-carrier picked up the first down. A far worse offender is the claim that “if they wanted to, the officials could call holding on every play.” No, they couldn’t. The idea that the offensive line holds on every down was made up by retired defensive linemen who are now in the announcers’ booth. It’s one thing to complain about a blown call, but you’d have to be a pickled posterior to whine that a call you know is correct should not have been made.

* Oregon tight end Colt Lyerla – for tweeting his belief that the Sandy Hook school shooting was a hoax, perpetrated by the gubbmint in order to disarm us and impose tyranny. Worst of all, he added that, “The parents of the kids that supposedly died in the sandy hook [sic] situation are liars.” Lyerla would later apologize to his teammates for having created an unnecessary distraction, but he apparently still clings to his preposterous conspiracy theory. It just goes to show that some people are willing to buy anything, just as long as they’re only paying for it with Montana Freemen dollars.

* Ohio State president Gordon Gee – During a speech this past May, Gee took playful swipes at several other universities, including Notre Dame. In explaining why the Fighting Irish had never joined the Big Ten, he said, “The fathers are holy on Sunday, and they’re holy hell the rest of the week. You just can’t trust those damn Catholics on a Thursday or a Friday.” He retired shortly thereafter, for reasons he pretended were wholly unrelated. The Czar was amused by academics and media feigning outrage that Gee had offended Catholics, when under normal circumstances, they’d have given him a medal for that. He could have said the same thing about another Catholic school, like Boston College, and it would have barely even made the papers. His real offense was in criticizing Notre Dame, the only university with its own anti-defamation league.

* ex-Pitt running back Rushel Shell – The sauntering sophomore had been a highly sought-after recruit, even drawing interest from Alabama and Ohio State, but he decided to play at Pitt so that he could stay close to his infant twin daughters. Although he would have been the Panthers’ featured back this season, he left the team abruptly for reasons unknown, and decided to transfer to UCLA. He never bothered registering for classes there, however, but instead tried to return to Pitt, for the reason that he hadn’t adequately appreciated how far Los Angeles is from Pittsburgh. No, really. Coach Paul Chryst declined to take him back, leaving Shell only a couple nearby options, from which he has now selected West Virginia. Of course, he’ll have to sit out this season, and he’ll probably change his mind several more times before the fall of 2014. His departure may turn out to devastate the Panthers’ 2013 season, but who could question Chryst’s decision to move on without him?

* Florida linebacker Antonio Morrison – who was arrested this summer for barking at a police dog. To be fair, the College Football Czar isn’t sure why that’s illegal, but who would bother to find out?

* Texas head coach Mack Brown – who actually awarded his players rings, not for winning a national or conference championship, but for having defeated Oregon State in the Alamo Bowl. Brown explained that he was rewarding his players in this way for having created momentum for the 2013 season. If the Longhorns go 0-12 this year, do they get participation trophies like in the pee-wees? At least these momentum rings can’t be valuable enough to produce a scandal. After all, Ohio State players got caught selling Big Ten championship rings in exchange for discounted tattoos. Not even free tattoos, but discounted ones. Compared to that, what can a momentum ring be worth? A staple in the forehead?

If the College Football Czar could issue proclamations changing college football, these are some of the things he would do:

* De-dome the championships – In its latest demonstration of its total disconnect from football fans, the NCAA has chosen the six stadiums that will be part of the championship game rotation, and four of them are indoors. Whatever other criteria were taken into consideration, it is perfectly obvious that domes were given preferential treatment, in spite of the facts that they artificially remove the elements from the game, and they look miserable on TV. The only two real football stadiums that are part of the rotation are the Rose Bowl, and Miami’s Sun Life Stadium. If the Czar had his way, Jerry Jones’ House of Inadequacy would be replaced by the venerable, 92,000-seat Cotton Bowl. Also, there’s no reason to hide from the Arizona sun, the championship being a night game, so University of Phoenix Stadium would be out, and Sun Devil Stadium in. Rounding out the six would be San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium, and the Citrus Bowl in Orlando.

* Turn off the spotlight – The fact that unsportsmanlike conduct rules are actually enforced in the NCAA is Exhibit A in proving the superiority of the college game over the pros. It would be nice, though, if the enforcers would patrol the entire field, instead of only the end zone. There’s no reason for a player, after making a big tackle or catch, or otherwise doing just what he’s supposed to do, to run ten yards away from everyone else on the field so that he can strike a pose or play to the crowd. If touchdown dances are unsportsmanlike – which of course they are – then so is this. Unsportsmanlike conduct is already illegal, but in order make this penalty – all together now – a “point of emphasis,” the officials could refer to it as “spotlighting.” After all, the fans are tuning in to see the Michigan Wolverines, not the Michigan Rag.

* Keep the BCS ratings – You heard it here first, and probably only. The makeup of the new playoff committee has not yet been finalized, but it will supposedly be comprised of somewhere between 12 and 20 members, five of which will be athletic directors from schools in the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big XII and Pac 12. Furthermore, it will apparently determine the four finalists on an almost entirely subjective basis. This is an atrocity waiting to happen. Even if the committee chooses correctly every year, the lack of a quasi-objective rating system is going to cause extreme and unnecessary controversy. Heaven help us the first time the committee, however correctly, selects four one-loss teams from major conferences, while leaving an undefeated Mountain West team out in the cold.

As maligned as the BCS has been, it has usually succeeded in matching the two best teams in the championship game, and would certainly manage to place the two best among the final four. If you look back at some of the great championships that never happened in the pre-BCS era, the BCS would probably have matched Nebraska against Penn State in 1994, Georgia Tech against Colorado in 1990, Brigham Young against Washington in 1984. Okay, so lardheads won’t stand for the existence of anything called BCS anymore. So change its name to the Dewey Dumbkopf System, or something. For the good of the game, do not let a small, insular club of elitists perennially declare their own schools to be the most deserving.

1. Louisville Cardinals – troubles are over thanks to Bridgewater, if they can protect him

4. South Florida Bulls – Willie’s hand jive will add some wit to withering offense

6. SMU Mustangs – Can whole herd of offensive coaches pull together as a team?

10. Memphis Tigers – still inviting foes to knock them down, step on their face

Outlook: This reconstructed not-so-big, not-so-east conference should be dominated by Louisville, which hopes to hang onto head coach Charlie Strong as it prepares to join the ACC in 2014. Most of the rest of the conference will be marked by the same maddening parity that characterized the Big East ever since its first wave of ACC defections. This new league’s opener between Houston and Temple may be entertaining, but it will hardly have the nation riveted.

1. Florida State Seminoles* – offense must work hard to make up for lost Manuel labor

2. Clemson Tigers – opener vs. Georgia will tell if they’ve been D-clawed at DB or not

3. Nc State Wolfpack – rebuilding job forces them to start buying wolves by the case

6. Wake Forest Demon Deacons – senior-studded team has experience, but at what?

1. Miami Hurricanes – forecast is for prevailing winds through most of the season

2. North Carolina Tarheels – need a runner to complement QB Renner in backfield

3. Virginia Tech Hokies/Gobblers – must be bulimic, the way they cough the ball up

4. Georgia Tech Ramblin Wreck –QB Vad Lee can do no vurse than his predecessor

5. Pitt Panthers – not a Shell of their former selves, after unexpected RB defection

6. Virginia Cavaliers – passive defense reverts to London blitz of coach’s rookie season

Outlook: FSU’s Oct. 19th visit to Clemson should ultimately decide the conference title, although both are likely BCS teams. The Czar gives the nod to the Noles, based on big plays allowed by the Tiger defense. We’ll see how good this enigmatic Miami team is capable of being, now that they’ve finally got something to play for. Pitt and Syracuse sneak in to their new league largely unnoticed.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes* – Will Braxton’s hype prevent Hyde from getting enough carries?

2. Penn State Nittany Lions – freshman QB Hackenburg gives glimpse of O’Brien’s future

3. Wisconsin Badgers – Why would Bret Bielema leave this program? Allergic to cheese?

4. Indiana Hoosiers – They’re winners in Coach Dale’s book, for whatever that’s worth

5. Purdue Boilermakers – little train should’ve beaten ND, OSU, but couldn’t

2. Northwestern Wildcats – Northwestern territory becomes more expansive by the year

4. Minnesota Golden Gophers – finally seeing the light at the end of the burrow

5. Michigan State Spartans – 300 Spartans are vying to take over as starting tailback

Outlook: The College Football Czar can’t believe OSU is about to make the same mistake Michigan made with Denard Robinson, by forcing Braxton Miller to throw from the pocket more often. A season-opening three-game suspension to RB Hyde gives them a chance to back out of that decision gracefully. If the Buckeyes don’t descend into a long season of second-guessing, they should help give the league the championship matchup it has long desired by putting them in a separate division from Michigan. The team most likely to foil that plan is the Wildcats, whose 10-win season was no fluke.

5. Oklahoma Sooners – just OK, after sustaining losses on both sides of the ball

10. West Virginia Mountaineers – bad year in Morgantown, unless you’re a couch

Outlook: With several of its highest-profile teams going through rebuilding projects, this could be the weakest of all the BCS conferences, at least insofar as its ability to produce a national contender is concerned. The most notable exception is OSU, which should benefit from relative stability at QB. About that Texas “momentum”: the Horns had lost their last two regular season games before playing one great quarter in the Alamo Bowl. What’s there to carry over, really?

1. East Carolina Pirates – veteran squad sends shivers through conference foes’ timbers

2. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders – want a bowl to match those MT-heads of theirs

3. Marshall Thundering Herd – Can new assistant Heater light a fire under the defense?

4. Florida Atlantic Burrowing Owls – dig holes for themselves with ambitious scheduling

6. Southern Miss Golden Eagles – laying that goose egg in 2012 must have really hurt

7. Florida International Golden Panthers – ex-Illini coach Turner looks to flip 3-9 record

1. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs* – must overcome own A.D., along will new league opponents

2. Tulsa Golden Hurricane – league-leading rushers leave foes chasing dust in the wind

3. Rice Owls – veteran team has more Rice coming back than a bad Chinese buffet

4. Tulane Green Wave – Orleans Darkwa is still the one at RB, despite injury-plagued 2012

Outlook: This weak, diluted league gets a needed dash of Tabasco with the long-overdue addition of instant contender LTU. The Pirates will be challenged by an angry MTSU team that was snubbed by Sun Belt bowl affiliates in 2012 Tulsa tries to win another title before coach Bill Blankenship gets hired away.

5. Idaho Vandals – Potatoes may pluck out their eyes, rather than watch this team

6. New Mexico State Aggies – You’ve got to marble at their streak of futility

Outlook: The bowl picture for the Irish is unclear, since they can’t currently weasel themselves in on any conference tie-ins. Inevitably, some at-large bids will open up, however, and some bowl committee will arrange a big game for them. The Czar predicts they’ll wind up in the Poinsettia Bowl, opposite MWC champ Fresno State. A small offensive boost would be big for BYU, which went 1-4 last year in games decided by less than a touchdown. Ex-WAC members Idaho and NMSU are in a transitional phase, en route to the Sun Belt Conference.

2. Ball State Cardinals – easily-red D allowed 20 pts. or more each game for two years

3. Northern Illinois Huskies – QB Lynch delivers frontier justice to conference foes

4. Western Michigan Broncos – take their pony show on the road vs. three Big Ten teams

Outlook: The MAC is ready to make a racket this year, with highly productive senior QBs playing at NIU, Ohio, Toledo, Ball St. and BGSU. The depth basically ends there, however, as defending East division champ Kent State is the only other team with any chance of competing with those five.

1. Boise State Broncos – must play most big games on that distracting green turf

2. Utah State Aggies – Now in tougher league, is it Last Day for brief run in Logan?

3. Air Force Falcons – Lightning Eleven are starting a whole new front seven this year

5. Wyoming Cowboys – head coach Christensen takes the reins of his own offense

6. Colorado State Rams – already weak defense has got mutton on its front line

1. Fresno State Bulldogs* – With Carr behind center, that “V” must stand for Vroom!

2. San Jose State Spartans – QB David Fales rarely did so during successful 2012

3. San Diego State Aztecs – look to build on pyramid scheme by throwing deeper

5. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors – Real fighting men would schedule 13 games if they could

6. UNLV Rebels – not brother-against-brother, with Tim Hauck as Bobby’s new D coach

Outlook: FSU was unable to beat Boise when they were rivals in the WAC. Their first meeting in MWC play didn’t go much better for them, but that was on the road. BSU plays its four biggest games away from home this year, including Sept. 20th at Bulldog Stadium. Coaching changes could be crippling for USU and Nevada.

5. California Golden Bears – Don’t expect Coach Dykes to plug up porous defense

6. Washington State Cougars – few warm bodies on which for Leach’s O to subsist

1. UCLA Bruins – looking for Mora the same after winning division for real last year

2. Arizona Wildcats – Rich Rod’s got an embarrassment, but not of riches, on defense

4. Arizona State Sun Devils – flamethrowers in front 7 take heat off suspect secondary

5. Utah Utes – too many chiefs, with Dennis Erickson added as offensive assistant

Outlook: If not for the uncertainty created by Chip Kelly’s departure, the Czar might have picked the Fighting Ducks to upend Alabama for the national title. The Cardinal, who won 8 games by 7 points or fewer last year, will have a tough time replacing their star tailback and two excellent tight ends. USC doesn’t face Oregon or Washington this year. Anything short of 10 wins for them, and it’s time for a change.

2. Georgia Bulldogs – you can run on these big dogs, with 3 defensive starters returning

3. Florida Gators – Muschamp needs more chomp from his offense to win division

6. Tennessee Volunteers – watching this team has Old Smokey up to two packs a day

7. Kentucky Wildcats – new coach Stoops must do just that, to pick up this lowly lot

1. Alabama Crimson Tide* – repeat champs make it easy for elephants not to forget

2. LSU Tigers – Coach Miles must learn to do with Les on defense, until line solidifies

5. Arkansas Razorbacks – Coach Bielema can’t scrape up enough of his kind of players

6. Mississippi State Bulldogs – muddled through 8-5 season without any quality wins

7. Auburn Tigers – AUffense won’t be so AUful with return of coach Gus Malzahn

Outlook: With less turnover for the Tide than a year ago, there’s no reason they shouldn’t win it all again. It helps that their East division opponents are Missouri and Tennessee. Carolina faces a more favorable road schedule than last year, when their only losses were in consecutive games at LSU and Florida. Once again, the nation’s best conference disgraces itself by scheduling lower-division opponents in November.

1. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks – belligerent birds fighting mad after bad bowl debut

4. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers – hope ex-Hog coach’s pig years are behind him

5. Texas State Bobcats – timely transfers mark-up value of defense in San Marcos

8. Georgia State Panthers – tiny Georgia Dome crowds will be a-GAST at what they see

Outlook: This league finally gained a measure of national respect in 2012, only to have four schools defect to Conference USA. Still, defending champion ASU and the two Louisiana schools remain capable of beating marquee opponents. The fall of Troy remains a mystery, while WKU takes a chance, but one with great payoff potential, by hiring Bobby “Scooter” Petrino.

The College Football Czar has no idea who he will end up picking to win the following games, but he highlights them now as possible upsets which threaten to ensnare some of the nation's most prominent programs. The favored teams appear in bold face.

Toledo at Florida – The mighty Gator defense will have a tougher task than it did a year ago, when it struggled past the Rockets’ arch rivals from Bowling Green. UT handed Cincinnati its first loss last season, and nearly knocked off Northern Illinois, even as QB Terrance Owens had a subpar season while fighting through a high ankle sprain. The mystique of the Swamp has dissipated slightly in recent years, and Toledo is used to big road games, having lost at Arizona by seven last year, and at Ohio State by five in 2011.

San Jose State at Stanford – Last year, SJSU rallied from a 17-3 halftime deficit to tie the game, before a fourth-quarter field goal lifted the Cardinal to victory. Stanford tailback Stepfan Taylor was the only offensive star of that game, but he’s gone, and there will be no obvious replacement for him heading into this season opener. The Spartans had the nation’s sixth-rated passing game last season behind QB David Fales, which gives them a chance to exploit the only slight flaw in David Shaw’s defense.

Tulsa at Oklahoma – OU’s decimated defense must contain the Hurricane’s versatile senior quarterback and former Cornhusker Cody Green. The key will be whether the Sooners’ new read-option offense will be prepared to take advantage of a TU defense that has lost most of its starters also.

Ohio State at California – If close really counted in The Horseshoe, Cal would have derailed OSU’s undefeated season early last year. The Buckeyes prevailed that day, 35-28, despite allowing an uncharacteristic 512 yards and committing 11 penalties. The Golden Bears’ feature back this year will apparently be junior Brendan Bigelow, who low-bridged the Bucks for touchdown runs of 81 and 59 yards.

Notre Dame vs. Arizona State – The Irish always try to play a great schedule, but their traditional rivals don’t tend to be proficient passing teams like ASU. Sun Devil coach Todd Graham now has the players he needs to run his spread offense, unlike his only season at Pitt, when he lost his only previous meeting with the golden domers 15-12, thanks to a sputtering short passing game. Assuming Graham actually sticks around at his current school long enough for this Week 5 neutral-site game in Arlington, it should be a far different game.

Georgia at Vanderbilt – The Commodores got off to a very poor start last year, when they were routed 48-3 in Athens. The defending divisional champs can’t afford to let the ease of that victory deceive them. Vandy finished the year with seven consecutive victories, and boasted the nation’s #19 defense by season’s end. The Bulldogs have dropped just four of their past 26 games, but all of those have been away from home.

LSU at Ole Miss – The Rebels’ 35 points were by far the most anybody scored on Louisiana State last season, and they did it in Baton Rouge. Mind you, that would be a much bigger deal, had they not given up 41. This trip to Oxford could be a Tiger trap, immediately following their big grudge match with the Florida Gators.

Boise State at Brigham Young – Is Boise poised to return to national contention, or does the increased degree of difficulty of last season’s wins indicate the start of a decline? It wouldn’t take much of a drop-off for them to fall past BYU, which nearly defeated them in an ugly 7-6 slog last year in the Tater State. The Cougars expect a more stable situation at quarterback with a healthy sophomore Taysom Hill. The turnover on the BSU defense leaves holes you could drive a B-U-S through, but fortunately, they’ll have had plenty of time to close them up by this Week 9 matchup.

Miami at Duke – The Blue Devils failed to stick a fork in the U again last year, when they fell in a 52-45 shootout, but the fact that they keep coming so close makes that Canes’ logo stand for “uh-oh.” Miami is 8-0 in the series since joining the ACC, but only two of those games have been the kind of blowout that one would expect. The Hurricanes could have trouble keeping their intensity up after consecutive games against Florida State and Virginia Tech, and, depending on the outcomes of those games, may feel that they can coast to the division title. If the Devils are to succeed in transitioning to a run-based offense, they will surely have done so by this point in the season.

Michigan at Iowa – This is a classic land mine game for the Wolverines, who head back out on the road after what figures to by a donnybrook for the division title at Northwestern, and just a week before hosting hated rival and conference favorite Ohio State. The Hawkeyes have a soft early schedule, and may still have a shot at a bowl game by the time these teams meet. If they are already eliminated, coach Kirk Ferentz could be fighting for his future in Iowa City. Anyone who says he wants to face him under those circumstances is full of fertilizer.

Oregon at Arizona – 2005: The Fighting Ducks are headed for a BCS bowl bid when they visit Tucson in late October. QB Kellen Clemens suffers a broken leg as his team limps off with a narrow 28-21 victory and a significantly lower rating. 2007: The Ducks are still entertaining thoughts of a national championship at 8-1 when they go to Tucson in mid-November. QB Dennis Dixon leaves the game with a torn ACL, and they lose 34-24, not to win again for the remainder of the regular season. 2009: UO is on its way to a Pac 10 championship when it arrives in Tucson in late November, and has to rally from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 44-41 in double-overtime. Is it any wonder that they should be leery of this visit to a Wildcat team that could be in the running for a division title?

Louisville at Cincinnati – The Bearcats could drive a Keg O’ Nails through the heart of the Cardinals’ national championship aspirations. Louiville won last year. 34-31 in overtime. One wonders how much differently that might have turned out if UC had yanked exciting but erratic QB Munchie Legaux in favor of the far steadier Brandon Kay a couple weeks earlier. Tommy Tuberville’s team might not simply be playing spoiler, however. It’s not unlikely that an upset would give them the inaugural AAC title and its accompanying BCS bid.

Just for fun, the Czar takes his best preseason guesses at how the postseason might turn out.

New Mexico ….. Dec. 21 ….. MWC vs. Pac 12 ….. San Diego St. vs. Arizona St.

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s ….. Dec. 23 ….. American vs. C-USA ….. C. Florida vs. Marshall

Little Caesar's ….. Dec. 26 ….. MAC vs. Big Ten* ….. Bowling Green vs. W. Kentucky

New Era Pinstripe ….. Dec. 28 ….. American vs. Big XII ….. Rutgers vs. Oklahoma

Russell Athletic ….. Dec. 28 ….. ACC vs. American (2) ….. Ga. Tech vs. S. Florida

Buffalo Wild Wings ….. Dec. 28 ….. Big XII vs. Big Ten ….. Kansas St. vs. Minnesota

Fiesta ….. Jan. 1 ….. BCS-Big XII vs. BCS (3) ….. Oklahoma St. vs. Clemson

Unnecessarily complicated. Formula is much simpler: team with most convicts ends up no. 1, team with second most convicts no. 2, and so on.

4. Ole Miss Rebels – looking to restore that Eli-era Miss-tique

Dude, it's the Ole Miss Politically Correct Black Bears

At least you didn't mention the Stanford Indian.

Love the post!

Who knows what the Michigan Wolverines will do this fall.

But the Wolverines will remain as the most watched, highest payout team on TV, most winningest team in NCAA history.

Highest winning percentage too, (over Notre Dame) in college football history.

And of course, the biggest stadium in the country that has been sold out for decades, The Big House.

The attendence records at U-M will never be broken, pro or college.

Now if only the GOP could put together a program to win...

The NCAA underlined its terminal ineptitude and spinelessness with the pathetic roll-over ruling on the blatant, institutionalized recruiting violations by the ducks. USC should rightly be furious over the pat on the wrist given the ducks. The USC violation had very little impact on the Trojan’s competitiveness - not so oregon’s paying for acccess to and placement of recruits.

They have lost any semblance of moral authority - the next time any program is hauled before the NCAA, they should cheerfully give them the big finger, and laugh at the pathetic wind-bags.

College football is the most corrupt sport in America; pro wrestling is less corrupt than NCAA BCS football. Teams that don’t cheat, lose, period. Every good team cheats; it’s just so rampant, the NCAA can’t control all of the cheating unless some school is so stupid to get caught (Ohio State, Auburn, USC, etc).

Monopoly breeds corruption. I wish a group of schools would secede and form a rival to the NCAA and give it some competition.

The University of Nike got a love pat because Phil Knight wouldn’t have sued the hell out of the NCAA if there were serious sanctions; and won.

All I can say is: ROLL TIDE, ROLL.

And a RAMMER JAMMER to Notre Dame, a team I hate far worse than I do Auburn.

Watch whoever goes unscathed from these 3 teams - Georgia, South Carolina and Clemson. Each one of these teams plays the other two, and depending how the rest of their season unfolds could wind up in the BCS title game.

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