Posted on 08/15/2013 8:05:43 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Sunspot count is virtually unchanged from last month :
It seems possible that we’ve seen the double peak, and it will be downhill after this.
A similar status quo in radio flux – little change from last month.
The Ap magnetic index dropped 4 units from last month, suggesting a slowing in the solar dynamo.
On August 1st, solar scientist David Hathaway updated his prediction page but the text is identical to last month – no change in the forecast.
The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 67 in the Summer of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. The smoothed sunspot number has been rising again over the last four months. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.
About the only significant even in the last month is that the solar polar fields have begun their reversal, indicating we are at “solar max”, which seems like a misnomer given the low activity observed at the moment. That’s why I think we may have seen the “double peak” and it is downhill from here.
Solar Polar Fields – Mt. Wilson and Wilcox Combined -1966 to Present
Leif Svalgaard – Click the pic to view at sourceWatch the progress on the WUWT solar reference page
259 Responses to Solar cycle 24 continues the slump
Wait....
What?
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Edim says:
I disagree that we’ve seen the double peak, and it will be downhill after this. There’ll be more peaks and the downhill will start after ~2014/15, but the strong monthly peak in late 2011 may remain the maximum monthly ssn for this long cycle.
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/bfly.gif
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Kev-in-Uk says:
But according to sources, the solar changes will have little to no effect on the earths climate?
I mean TSI only varies by a mere smidgen (+/- 0.1%), right?
and of course, the rising CO2 levels will keep us nice and warm anyway?
On a more sobering note:
I was wondering if a definitively weak solar cycle does actually lead to significant (i.e. measurable)surface temperature changes, exactly how the MSM and super solar scientists will explain it away?
On the one hand, it would be a good ‘experiment’ with the chance to see how such solar changes affect temperatures, especially the timelag between cause and effect – and perhaps thus confirm/refute the ‘constant’ solar claims (pun intended). On the other hand, a long time lag will simply play into the alarmists and politicos hands and all the while those in fuel poverty will be freezing their proverbial butts off.
Yah, I’d rather have warming. I could ski in Austin and grow righteous bud in Greenland ;)
We are gonna have a nasty situation if it gets all icy. Remember the Thames frozing over back in the day. I know I do.
Wear sun screen.
So what does that mean for radio signal propigation (he asks unknowingly) , , ,
Do I buy that tower I’ve been dreaming of now or do I wait until others are unloading theirs?
...Obama issues an Executive Order to the Sun...
....to increase it's magnetic field....
and make a good crop of sunspots before elections in 2016....
(PhysOrg.com) -- Sunspot formation is triggered by a magnetic field, which scientists say is steadily declining. They predict that by 2016 there may be no remaining sunspots, and the sun may stay spotless for several decades.
The last time the sunspots disappeared altogether was in the 17th and 18th century, and coincided with a lengthy cool period on the planet known as the Little Ice Age....and lasted 400 years.
Good luck surviving with no electricity and GE modified seeds.
Read more at: http://phys.org/news203746768.html#jCp
And the sun pretty well seems to get spotty or unspotty when it jolly well wants to, within the general rhythm.
You’d think there was a God... hey! there is!
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/14/the-early-chill-in-the-arctic-continues/#comment-1391580
Come join the pun!
We’re having fun playing with the trolls on this thread about the continued VERY EARLY Arctic cooling this year. Readers, writers, and rithmatickers might learn something while they are enjoying themselves.
To reply or comment, you do need to register with wordpress.com; but just reading is free.
We expect the short wave propagation (atmospheric rebound radiation) to continue to weaken. How long?
Can’t tell: The last time this happened (back in the early 1600’s) it lasted over 80 years. But nobody then had radios - except in the 1632 universe of Baen books! - and so there are no experiments to refute, or fute, theory.
What will the global warmers do when all these cold temperatures start rolling in.
They have a backup scam
Ocean acidification
Unfortunately, if global cooling does happen and more snow falls (Snow pH = 5.8) it will cause the ocean to increase in acidity.
Slump away if that means 80’s in Kansas’ August.
As a non-scientist, I need someone to explain in layman’s terms what this all means. Specifically, (1) what are the implications - if any - for telecommunications systems and the power grid; and (2) what are the implications - if any - for global warming/cooling trends?
Lower sunspots means less chance of solar disruption to the power grid. Although I would think that even in a period of low sunspots there is still the rare chance of a disruptive solar flare.
And low sunspots is associated with less energy coming from the sun, energy that warms the earth. So temperatures will probably go down. I imagine there are other factors (one NOT being mankind’s emissions of “global warming gases”).
The last long-term period of low sunspot numbers had low temperatures, “the year without summer”, poor crop yields, etc. Of course that might stress the grid with everyone plugging in their electric heaters. Seriously.
If one looks at the VERY long term (not hundreds, but thousands of years), I predict that we may very well be approaching an honest to goodness, mile-thick ice over Seattle Ice Age.
Thanks.
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