Skip to comments.BREAKING: IPCC AR5 report to dial back climate sensitivity (WUWT News)
Posted on 09/15/2013 10:41:06 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
September 14, 2013
Update: the IPCC edifice is crumbling, see The state of climate science: fluxed up
See also Willis article One Step Forward, Two Steps Back
This post will be a sticky for awhile, new posts will appear below it. Anthony
Dialing Back the Alarm on Climate Change
A forthcoming report points lowers estimates on global warming
by Dr. Matt Ridley
Later this month, a long-awaited event that last happened in 2007 will recur. Like a returning comet, it will be taken to portend ominous happenings. I refer to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) fifth assessment report, part of which will be published on Sept. 27.
There have already been leaks from this 31-page document, which summarizes 1,914 pages of scientific discussion, but thanks to a senior climate scientist, I have had a glimpse of the key prediction at the heart of the document. The big news is that, for the first time since these reports started coming out in 1990, the new one dials back the alarm. It states that the temperature rise we can expect as a result of man-made emissions of carbon dioxide is lower than the IPPC thought in 2007.
Admittedly, the change is small, and because of changing definitions, it is not easy to compare the two reports, but retreat it is. It is significant because it points to the very real possibility that, over the next several generations, the overall effect of climate change will be positive for humankind and the planet.
Specifically, the draft report says that equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)eventual warming induced by a doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which takes hundreds of years to occuris extremely likely to be above 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), likely to be above 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) and very likely to be below 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 Fahrenheit). In 2007, the IPPC said it was likely to be above 2 degrees Celsius and very likely to be above 1.5 degrees, with no upper limit. Since extremely and very have specific and different statistical meanings here, comparison is difficult.
Still, the downward movement since 2007 is clear, especially at the bottom of the likely range. The most probable value (3 degrees Celsius last time) is for some reason not stated this time.
Most experts believe that warming of less than 2 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels will result in no net economic and ecological damage. Therefore, the new report is effectively saying (based on the middle of the range of the IPCCs emissions scenarios) that there is a better than 50-50 chance that by 2083, the benefits of climate change will still outweigh the harm.
Above are excerpts of an article Dr. Ridley has written for the Wall Street Journal, who kindly provided WUWT with a copy.
Read the entire story here
I’m just glad I planted lots of leafy greens that did well in the cool wet summer.
Thanks Ernest. I shall spend some time reading all the URL’s you reference. The gig is up for the Fat Boy from Malibu. :)
Sounds like these guys looked out the window and changed their minds.
Groups like these are monuments to hubris.
In full seriousness: history will tell the truth. What's been passing for "science" is Marxist propaganda.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.