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Earth's days are numbered
Nature ^ | 9/19/13 | Emma Marris

Posted on 09/20/2013 1:45:59 AM PDT by LibWhacker

Earth will be able to host life for just another 1.75 billion years or so, according to a study published on 18 September in Astrobiology1. The method used to make the calculation can also identify planets outside the Solar System with long ‘habitable periods’, which might be the best places to look for life.

The habitable zone around a star is the area in which an orbiting planet can support liquid water, the perfect solvent for the chemical reactions at the heart of life. Too far from a star and a planet’s water turns to permanent ice and its carbon dioxide condenses; too close, and the heat turns water into vapour that escapes into space.

Habitable zones are not static. The luminosity of a typical star increases as its composition and chemical reactions evolve over billions of years, pushing the habitable zone outward. Researchers reported in March that Earth is closer to the inner edge of the Sun’s habitable zone than previously thought2.

(Excerpt) Read more at nature.com ...


TOPICS: Science
KEYWORDS: catastrophism; earth; habitable; numbered; zone

1 posted on 09/20/2013 1:46:00 AM PDT by LibWhacker
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To: LibWhacker

2 posted on 09/20/2013 1:52:13 AM PDT by JoeProBono (Mille vocibus imago valet;-{)
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To: LibWhacker

Bottom line? We need to eventually leave this planet, period. There’s no if’s about this.

The positive is that we’ve got a couple thousand years as a minimum to get smart, explore, and find other places.

For those big into big fancy buildings or statues for the future....you might as well prepare for the day that it won’t really matter anymore.


3 posted on 09/20/2013 2:10:49 AM PDT by pepsionice
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To: pepsionice

4 posted on 09/20/2013 2:22:40 AM PDT by JoeProBono (Mille vocibus imago valet;-{)
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To: pepsionice
We need to eventually leave this planet, period. There’s no if’s about this.

Humans leaving the planet could be extremely difficult. Far easier to move the Earth out a ways to keep it in the habitable zone.

5 posted on 09/20/2013 2:29:36 AM PDT by NutCrackerBoy
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To: LibWhacker

I’m sure Obongo has a solution, if you just raise the debt ceiling...


6 posted on 09/20/2013 2:41:59 AM PDT by Hardraade (http://junipersec.wordpress.com (Obama: the bearded lady of the Muslim Brotherhood))
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To: LibWhacker

Must be Bush’s fault.


7 posted on 09/20/2013 2:51:54 AM PDT by Daveinyork (IER)
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So Earth is like 55 in human years?


8 posted on 09/20/2013 3:06:54 AM PDT by Gene Eric (Don't be a statist!)
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To: JoeProBono

For one thing all our lives are in the hands of the lord. And to worry about something 1.5 billion years down the road pretty silly...

...don’t allow yourselves to be agitated into a call for action so we can pay a transportation tax to another democratic party trash, fear mongering grifter.


9 posted on 09/20/2013 3:19:09 AM PDT by exPBRrat
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To: Gene Eric

No, the Earth will be around long after it is no longer habitable by humans or by macro lifeforms. The Earth may migrate outwards in the Solar System as the Sun’s mass decreases as the result of radiation of the energy produced by its nuclear fusion and mass ejections. It becomes a matter of which expands outwards into the outer Solar System faster, the Earth’s orbit or the Sun’s expanding diameter. In either case, the Earth’s atmosphere, hydrosphere, and upper lithosphere will have long before become vaporised and stripped away from the Earth into the outer reaches of the Solar System. Human life, however, will have long ago become extinct upon the Earth due to an assortment of earlier extinction level events.

The movement of the Earth to a more distant orbit from the Sun by natural or artificial means will not alter this outcome. The only hope for human survival is for the community to migrate its surviving societies to asteroidal and space habitats in the outer Solar system, interstellar dark planetery systems, and other stellar systems.


10 posted on 09/20/2013 3:26:55 AM PDT by WhiskeyX ( provides a system for registering complaints about unfair broadcasters and the ability to request a)
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To: LibWhacker

The much-heralded Information Age is full of itself.


11 posted on 09/20/2013 3:27:49 AM PDT by equaviator (There's nothing like the universe to bring you down to earth.)
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To: WhiskeyX

Well, that’s an eye-opener :)


12 posted on 09/20/2013 3:29:27 AM PDT by Gene Eric (Don't be a statist!)
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To: LibWhacker

The meek shall inherit the earth. The rest of us are going to the stars.
— Robert A. Heinlein


13 posted on 09/20/2013 3:38:51 AM PDT by Yo-Yo
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To: LibWhacker

Carbon is being converted to non-usable forms at a steady rate such that the level of atmospheric carbon is orders of magnitude lower than in the past. Life will go extinct long before the earth becomes otherwise uninhabitable because of the lack of carbon.

We can thank anthropogenic warming enthusiasts for their schemes to sequester even more carbon to keep it out of the atmosphere, thereby hastening the end of life on earth. Who knows, maybe they *want* the destruction of all life.


14 posted on 09/20/2013 3:52:42 AM PDT by exDemMom (Now that I've finally accepted that I'm living a bad hair life, I'm more at peace with the world.)
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To: LibWhacker

So, does this mean I have time to enjoy a few good steaks?


15 posted on 09/20/2013 3:53:34 AM PDT by Terry L Smith
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To: LibWhacker

I guess I better cancel our trip next weekend to our trailer, eh?


16 posted on 09/20/2013 3:58:09 AM PDT by Redleg Duke ("Madison, Wisconsin is 30 square miles surrounded by reality.", L. S. Dryfus)
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To: equaviator

“The inner edge of the Sun’s habitable zone is moving outwards at a rate of about 1 metre per year.”
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

So that means that at some point part the Earth could be in the habitable zone but a tiny portion of it could be too close to the Sun so you could survive the night but not the following day? Yeah, right, got it. One meter one way or the other makes all the difference, yep.


17 posted on 09/20/2013 4:11:29 AM PDT by RipSawyer
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To: exPBRrat

Exactly!!!

Yep, we’re all going to die UNLESS we pay more taxes to these political ‘experts’ who will ‘fix’ this! -making our lives crummier and theirs more cushy.


18 posted on 09/20/2013 4:23:14 AM PDT by joethedrummer
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To: WhiskeyX

The eventual cooling of the earth’s interior will cost us our magnetic field and our continents as they erode below sea level.

Our moon is also drifting away which causes other problems.


19 posted on 09/20/2013 4:31:11 AM PDT by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: cripplecreek

20 posted on 09/20/2013 4:42:50 AM PDT by JoeProBono (Mille vocibus imago valet;-{)
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To: NutCrackerBoy
Humans leaving the planet could be extremely difficult. Far easier to move the Earth out a ways to keep it in the habitable zone.

Not sure what the energy requirements would be to boost the Earth to a higher orbit around the Sun, but they must be gargantuan. Maybe we could launch a giant "sunshade" to partly block the sun. Make it a solar collector and beam back the energy to Earth as a bonus. (I know, I'm dreaming. The reality is we don't even have an available means to launch a manned vehicle at the moment. Sad, really.)

21 posted on 09/20/2013 5:50:37 AM PDT by Flick Lives (We're going to be just like the old Soviet Union, but with free cell phones!)
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To: LibWhacker

That does it. I’m shorting Terran real estate.


22 posted on 09/20/2013 6:02:14 AM PDT by IronJack (=)
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To: LibWhacker
Earth will be able to host life for just another 1.75 billion years or so

It'll be here before you know it.

23 posted on 09/20/2013 6:08:58 AM PDT by GreenHornet
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To: pepsionice

I say in the next thousand years we start building giant spacecraft in orbit, a fleet of them, for the day when we have to the leave to plunder other solar systems of their resources.

We are V.


24 posted on 09/20/2013 6:17:02 AM PDT by GeronL
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To: JoeProBono

The day is coming that a giant 8-ball will crash to Earth.


25 posted on 09/20/2013 6:17:41 AM PDT by GeronL
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To: LibWhacker

It’s high time I started smoking better cigars.


26 posted on 09/20/2013 6:21:49 AM PDT by Nachoman (Wisdom is learned, cynicism is earned.)
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To: NutCrackerBoy
Far easier to move the Earth out a ways to keep it in the habitable zone

Back in the Cold War days there was a story that "Red China" was developing a Doomsday weapon: The communist government would equip every Chinese citizen with a six foot stump in their yard. At a signal from Chairman Mao everyone would mount their stump and jump off, knocking the Earth out of its orbit.

27 posted on 09/20/2013 6:31:08 AM PDT by 19th LA Inf
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To: GeronL

We were always V.

Entire cultures of “Puritans”, “wacko environmentalists”, “intelligentsia-dopes” and “Texans” will pack and leave to resettle and start bold new planets in their culture theme. A thousand years from now...the planet Texas will be waiting for folks to arrive.


28 posted on 09/20/2013 6:54:58 AM PDT by pepsionice
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To: LibWhacker

...and I feel fine.


29 posted on 09/20/2013 6:55:33 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: pepsionice

Yup.

That will be where I belong. Assuming my artificial body and consciousness transfer continues to work smoothly about 200 more times.

/jk


30 posted on 09/20/2013 6:56:54 AM PDT by GeronL
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To: GeronL

We are the fat blobs in Wall-E.


31 posted on 09/20/2013 7:24:49 AM PDT by Resolute Conservative
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To: Resolute Conservative

pretty close right now


32 posted on 09/20/2013 7:28:53 AM PDT by GeronL
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To: cripplecreek

The Moon’s orbit increases as angular momentum is transferred from the Earth to the Moon until they become tidally locked with a period of perhaps 40 days for the Earth’s diurnal rotation and the Moon’s orbital period. Then the Sun’s angular momentum is transferred to the Moon, and the Moon’s orbit decreases until reaching the Roche limit close to the Earth. The Moon then breaksup, rains asteroidal destruction upon the surface of the Earth (already dead and barren), and the Earth acquires a ring of Moon debris in orbit around the Earth like the rings of Saturn.


33 posted on 09/20/2013 7:49:08 AM PDT by WhiskeyX ( provides a system for registering complaints about unfair broadcasters and the ability to request a)
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To: WhiskeyX

Sounds awesome.

lol


34 posted on 09/20/2013 7:49:53 AM PDT by GeronL
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To: WhiskeyX

The only problem with your theory is that we know and can prove that the moon is drifting further away from the earth.


35 posted on 09/20/2013 7:52:11 AM PDT by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: cripplecreek

but then it comes back and slaps us in the face!

heh


36 posted on 09/20/2013 7:53:55 AM PDT by GeronL
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To: GeronL
I'm sorry I won't be around for the event.

Whether we're talking 100,000, 1 million, or 1 billion years, that's a long damn time.

37 posted on 09/20/2013 7:55:26 AM PDT by Night Hides Not (The Tea Party was the earthquake, and Chick Fil A the tsunami...100's of aftershocks to come.)
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To: Night Hides Not

Yep


38 posted on 09/20/2013 7:57:09 AM PDT by GeronL
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To: pepsionice
we need to eventually leave the planet, period

Haven't we done enough damage here?

Maybe it's the way of things that when a species develops the technology to colonize other solar systems those same technologies will cause it to self destruct.

39 posted on 09/20/2013 7:58:17 AM PDT by grania
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To: GeronL

Its just backing off to get a running start.


40 posted on 09/20/2013 8:01:00 AM PDT by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: cripplecreek

lol.

Athletic Moon.


41 posted on 09/20/2013 8:03:45 AM PDT by GeronL
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To: LibWhacker

There’s no point acting all surprised about it. All the planning charts and demolition orders have been on display in your local planning department in Alpha Centauri for fifty of your Earth years, so you’ve had plenty of time to lodge any formal complaint and it’s far too late to start making a fuss about it now.


42 posted on 09/20/2013 8:05:16 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: GeronL

Humanit may very well not have a thousand years remaining in which to establish an extraterrestrial home to survive the extinction of Humanity on the Earth. One or two asteroid strikes may have already nearly caused the extinction of Humans not so long ago in the Paleolithic and much earlier. The Earth is due for a much larger ELE (Extinction Level Event) of the type which results in the sudden extinction of most life on the Earth. Either way, a lesser ELE or a greater ELE, Human technical civilization will be destroyed and become incapable of arising again. The current civilization has already extracted much of the more easily recoverable non-renewable natural resources of the Earth. A future civilizaton arising anew will not have access to the quantities of resources required to sustain a civilization of our current size or greater required to support extraterrestrial activities. in other words, once lost, human extraterrestrial capabilities will be unlikey to be regained in the future. The time to establish permanent extraterrestrial habitats and civillization iis now or never.

the clock is ticking, and it a race to see whether or not Humans will permanently colonize survivable cextraterrestrial communities or perish in the not to distant future at the next ELE as near as the next good sized asteroid to impact the Earth or the next supernova to burst in the local neighborhood of stars within 100 light years.


43 posted on 09/20/2013 8:19:29 AM PDT by WhiskeyX ( provides a system for registering complaints about unfair broadcasters and the ability to request a)
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To: WhiskeyX

I’ll go, I have nothing better to do and I can finish my novel on the trip too


44 posted on 09/20/2013 8:21:11 AM PDT by GeronL
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To: cripplecreek

“The only problem with your theory is that we know and can prove that the moon is drifting further away from the earth.”

Evidently, you failed to read and/or understand that I wrote saying the Moon’s orbit is expanding to send the Moon farther away from the Earth. But this expansioin is destined to come to a halt when the Earth’s diurnal rotation and the Moon’s orbital period become synchronized, at what some have reported as about a 40 day period. At that point an observer of the Earth’s surface could see the Moon from only one hemisphere. This assumes the eccintricity of the Earth’s axial tilt has not already destabilized as expected and becom a 90 degree tilt.

Once the Earth and Moon have become tidally locked, the Moon’s outward drift becomes reversed with the moon losing angular momentum to the Sun and its orbit drifts downwards towards the Earth. When the drift downwards brings the Moon very close to the Earth and reaches the Roche limit for the Moon, the Moon disintegrates and rains further destruction upon the Earth.


45 posted on 09/20/2013 8:27:34 AM PDT by WhiskeyX ( provides a system for registering complaints about unfair broadcasters and the ability to request a)
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To: GeronL

Its better than the clown who told me that the sun is fueled by comets and dust falling into it like a great big bonfire.


46 posted on 09/20/2013 9:15:08 AM PDT by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: cripplecreek

That reminds me of the news article that said such and such comet is to be a spectacular site if the sun doesn’t burn it up first. (Without the sun the comet wouldn’t have a tail or be lit up, lol)


47 posted on 09/20/2013 9:20:38 AM PDT by GeronL
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To: grania

It’s a case of use it before you lose it anyway.

Ceres is the largest known asteroid in the Solar System at present with a diameter of something like 400 miles. Mining its interior to produce a habitat would produce arable alnd nearly equivalent to all of the currently arable land on the entire Earth. This is because very little of the Earth’s surface is arable land. The low gravity conditions of the Asteroid would permit the construction of large interior spaces which provides so much overhead space, an inhabitant would perceive the overhead to be a blue sky much like that of Earth. Only a few thousand feet of overhead space is required for this effect. Such a colony could support human populations numbering in the tens of millions or more.

there is enough water ice in the outer regions of the Solar system to supply enough water to fill multiple Earth oceans. This water is also the source of wcarbon dioxide for plants and oxygen for animals. The asteroids are a readily available for high grade metal ores in quantities many times greater than all of the metal ores mined by man in all of history. Artificial gravity can be produced by spinning the habitat. Nuclear energy is readily available with little need for concern about radioactive contamination. Disposal of radioactive contaminants are safely accomplished through the simple expedient of deorbiting the material into the Sun.


48 posted on 09/20/2013 11:04:06 AM PDT by WhiskeyX ( provides a system for registering complaints about unfair broadcasters and the ability to request a)
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To: WhiskeyX
unbelievable. I did not know that.

It's humbling. What's to say that our being here is not the result of an endeavor like that?

49 posted on 09/20/2013 11:24:28 AM PDT by grania
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Thanks LibWhacker.


50 posted on 09/21/2013 10:43:39 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (It's no coincidence that some "conservatives" echo the hard left.)
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