Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Math Explains History: Simulation Accurately Captures the Evolution of Ancient Complex Societies
ScienceNewsline ^ | Tuesday, September 24, 2013 | National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS)

Posted on 09/28/2013 10:44:33 AM PDT by SunkenCiv

The question of how human societies evolve from small groups to the huge, anonymous and complex societies of today has been answered mathematically, accurately matching the historical record on the emergence of complex states in the ancient world.

Intense warfare is the evolutionary driver of large complex societies, according to new research from a trans-disciplinary team at the University of Connecticut, the University of Exeter in England, and the National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis (NIMBioS)...

The study's cultural evolutionary model predicts where and when the largest-scale complex societies arose in human history.

Simulated within a realistic landscape of the Afro-Eurasian landmass during 1,500 BCE to 1,500 CE, the mathematical model was tested against the historical record. During the time period, horse-related military innovations, such as chariots and cavalry, dominated warfare within Afro-Eurasia. Geography also mattered, as nomads living in the Eurasian Steppe influenced nearby agrarian societies, thereby spreading intense forms of offensive warfare out from the steppe belt.

The study focuses on the interaction of ecology and geography as well as the spread of military innovations and predicts that selection for ultra-social institutions that allow for cooperation in huge groups of genetically unrelated individuals and large-scale complex states, is greater where warfare is more intense.

While existing theories on why there is so much variation in the ability of different human populations to construct viable states are usually formulated verbally, by contrast, the authors' work leads to sharply defined quantitative predictions, which can be tested empirically.

The model-predicted spread of large-scale societies was very similar to the observed one; the model was able to explain two-thirds of the variation in determining the rise of large-scale societies...

Citation: Turchin P, Currie T, Turner E, Gavrilets S. 2013. War, space, and the evolution of Old World complex societies. PNAS.

(Excerpt) Read more at sciencenewsline.com ...


TOPICS: History; Science; Travel
KEYWORDS: godsgravesglyphs; helixmakemineadouble
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-22 last
To: Yollopoliuhqui
We need to wage war on comets and meteors, not each other.

It's a noble thought, and some people are working on it, however the technology to divert an asteroid away from Earth is the exact same technology needed to steer it directly into Earth to completely annihilate an enemy. That technology is a poor man's Death Star.

By nature humans are highly vain creatures, certain that God made us in his image. The problem with vanity is it's soon followed by envy, and not the good kind, the kind that wants to steal, destroy, rape, kill, and vote Democrat. Vanity and envy are so deeply woven into who we are, they cannot be removed. Warfare made us. We can suppress it somewhat but can't eliminate it. If you want to count yourself among the survivors, never fall for the old socialist disarmament ploy. It's a trap!

21 posted on 10/02/2013 8:09:49 AM PDT by Reeses
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Reeses

“It’s a noble thought, and some people are working on it, however the technology to divert an asteroid away from Earth is the exact same technology needed to steer it directly into Earth to completely annihilate an enemy. That technology is a poor man’s Death Star.”

We have the technology to hit it with ICBM’s, all that is necessary is a hardened nose cone that can penetrate a foot or two to break a big one into smaller bits that are far less dangerous. Hit it early enough and you change its orbit. Hit it at the upper reaches of the atmosphere and you turn it to dust. This is off the shelf technology.

Problem is, you won’t find many liberals who want to turn the world’s nuclear arsenals into a savant technology. They front all sorts of exotic work arounds that will take decades to deploy. They are out there and they can wipe us out.


22 posted on 10/02/2013 8:06:27 PM PDT by Yollopoliuhqui
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-22 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson