Mongol horsemen. Intense warfare is the evolutionary driver of large complex societies, according to a new mathematical model whose findings accurately match those of the historical record in the ancient world. (Image courtesy National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis)
OK, now who wins the “Big One” and what is left?
On the two maps, the data and simulation are different for Great Britain and for Northern Europe.
Anybody know how to get inside this model, and learn the answer about those differences?
Might be bad news for anyone hoping to find advanced but benign civilizations out there among the stars.
"No model is correct. Some are useful." - George E.P. Box
So there's that.
Wars cause a concentration of wealth and power for those who wage the wars and provide the weapons etc to fight them.
Not new, Asimov and others wrote about this in SciFi decades ago.
Math explains history??
Math is pure logic - by itself it’s an empty vessel. Its use in a model restricts the results to logical consequences. But the crucial aspect of a model are its assumptions about, in this case, human behavior under various conditions and the conditions themselves
Given the unpredictability of human behavior and conditions I don’t see these models getting very far.
Makes sense. Command and control ICS/NIMS - span of command - separation of functions into operations, planning, logistics, financing all those top down basic organizational models that fit the military and emergency response are the foundational blocks for effectively mobilizing a society to accomplish something together.