Skip to comments.What Are The Ramifications of the U.S. Newly Emergent Status As World's Largest Oil,Gas Producer?
Posted on 10/06/2013 3:34:32 AM PDT by lbryce
Free Republic:October 6, 2013-U.S. Expected To Be Largest Producer of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hydrocarbons in 2013
What are the ramifications of America's newly emergent status as the world's largest producer of petroleum and natural gas hydrocarbons in 2013?
The conventional wisdom of America's preeminent status as global superpower being on the wane is a consensus difficult to deny even if one were to take the current wholly corrupt, dysfunctional, inept leadership out of the equation.
It may very well be that the US economy has been irrevocably diminished, the reality of which would certainly take a toll on America's influence and prestige world-wide. Furthermore, the government shutdown as symptom, harbinger of a looming economic disaster in the guise of a runaway profligacy as quintessential manifestation in which the Democrat party has historically ruled the Federal government, presents a herculean dilemma of which seems nearly unresolvable.
My question is, how would our status as world's largest oil and gas producer in 2013 and for argument's sake, for a an unspecified number of years affect America's political, economic well being as the world's global superpower? (albeit in diminished capacity.)
A big popping sound, from a head explosion, the Oval office.
Make no mistake, our enemy is learned in warfare tactics
Invest in Energy...
Statement of potential bias, I am long on Exxon
The timing could not have been better. Once Iran domos just one nuke they’ll make the Persian Gulf and Iranian lake. (This is why Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia so desperately want Assad out of Syria; access to the Mediterranean.) With Middle Eastern oil under Iranian control the price will scream upwards. This positions the US to become the new Saudi Arabia. If we have wiser leadership by then we’ll rocket back to super power status. If we don’t we’ll live well but be on the Detroit curve to being one large blasted landscape.
This topic is worthy of four or five books. Imagine one of the largest, most powerful armies in history under the command of a bumbling incompetent-—then suddenly placed in the hands of Alexander or Napoleon. That’s where we are with our domestic energy.
FYI, I know a guy at the World Bank who said “I’m long on America, short on China.”
One of the very first lessons he learned in his Muslim upbringing is that the freedom of being an individual with free thought and will is against the will of Allah. Likewise for free citizens of a free and sovereign country, especially those that prosper.
If Iran closes the Persian Gulf Saudi Arabia will simply build an oil terminus on the Red Sea.
“If Iran closes the Persian Gulf Saudi Arabia will simply build an oil terminus on the Red Sea.”
So, let’s say Iran is now in the position North Korea occupies. NK sank the Choenan and we did nothing. Why? They “might” have a nuke. (We don’t really know.)
So, Iran goes nuclear. They require a payment to use “their Persian Gulf.” It’s half the value of your cargo. Saudi Arabia builds a terminal on the Red Sea.
But Iran, which can no longer be punished or threatened has 30-70 thousand mines ready to deploy. They drop a few hundred at the narrow entrance of the Red Sea.
Do we do anything? (I was program manger on a US Navy mine sweeper project. I have a good idea of the Navy’s capability and it doesn’t come close to being able to neutralize the number, type and quantity of mines Iran can deploy.) Will we punish Iran for doing this? Oh, we’ll send nasty letters. But that will be it.
Sharif don't like it, rock the casbah, rock the casbah.
I’m long on Kodiak and Continental.
Yep, Western Europe is in the barrel now and the immediate future.
North Sea oil is waning and new deposits are exclusive to Norway and Russia with Russia being the only one able to service the Arctic. The southern supply route requires Syria and Turkey or ship it through the Suez if you don't provoke Egypt. Israel and Greece might help, but then there's that antisemitism and Greek debt thing. Plus the Chinese will be eager buyers of Pacific oil. Western Europeans better pray for "Globull Warming" if they can't get a war started as cover for the Saudi scam, or play nice with the Russians.
So we can produce a lot of oil, big deal. The “rest of the story” is, we will ship it off shore so other nations can use it. When was the last time we saw a new refinery being built here in the U.S.? IMO, we will not be building any new refineries until we rid ourselves of odumbo and his gang of thugs in Washington and most importantly the EPA, until then keep paying those high prices for fuel.
Depends on the stakes. But even if we don't get involved Saudi Arabia certainly would in that scenario, and I wouldn't discount their military capabilities in their own back yard. And don't forget Israel also has a port on the Red Sea.
Appreciate the economic benefit of plentiful and inexpensive natural gas, but learn to live with $3.00-plus gasoline. Fracking requires something on the order of $70.00/bbl in order to pay out. Then, there are the many and various government taxation schemes, none of which even Republicans appear interested in halting. Defend that plentiful and cheap natgas from governmental predation, it’s key to newfound economic competitiveness for domestic manufacturing operations. Our economy is an utter shambles for lower and middle class citizens. A manufacturing renaissance will provide them with a means of supporting themselves that does not involve government largesse.
And that gives Russia gigantic political clout, especially in Europe and eastern Asia. For example, Russia could easily return the four westernmost islands of the Kuril Islands chain back to Japan in return for Japan exclusively buying natural gas from these new reserves (e.g., a natural gas pipeline from the Russian mainland through Sakhalin Island to Hokkkaido and then to the Honshu).
It’s hard to ignore the fact that this supports continued global dollar hegemony and the US/Saudi relationship. How this all affects the US/Russian relationship is the real question in my mind. I can’t imagine that Russia will be happy about any of this.