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Polar Express: ‘Major cold air outbreak for most of the U.S. late next'
The Climate Depot ^ | October 17, 2013 | Marc Morano

Posted on 10/17/2013 6:23:24 PM PDT by citizen

The Polar Express is Leaving the Station

I’ve been watching the 10-day GFS forecast for the U.S., and each run is reinforcing the previous one, with a major cold air outbreak for most of the U.S. late next week.

Me: brrrrrr! Ice age coming? Some people think so.


TOPICS: Weather
KEYWORDS: globalcooling; iceage; snow; weather; winter
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1 posted on 10/17/2013 6:23:24 PM PDT by citizen
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To: citizen

We need to waterboard The Mann, outside, now.


2 posted on 10/17/2013 6:25:32 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: citizen

Around here we usually see our first snow flurries around Halloween.


3 posted on 10/17/2013 6:26:33 PM PDT by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: Paladin2

It is already chilly here in Texas!


4 posted on 10/17/2013 6:27:11 PM PDT by jpsb (Believe nothing until it has been officially denied)
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To: citizen

Don’t think I have to worry, I live in SE AZ.


5 posted on 10/17/2013 6:27:23 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty - Honor - Country! What else needs said?)
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To: citizen

OOps, that was supposed to read ‘late next week’


6 posted on 10/17/2013 6:27:48 PM PDT by citizen (There is always free government cheese in the mouse trap.....https://twitter.com/kracker0)
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To: Paladin2

....waterboard The Mann

OK, I don’t get that one.


7 posted on 10/17/2013 6:28:44 PM PDT by citizen (There is always free government cheese in the mouse trap.....https://twitter.com/kracker0)
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To: citizen

This map is predicting 4 to 8 degrees below zero for Maryland in late October? I have a hard time believing that. It doesn’t even get that cold in January here.


8 posted on 10/17/2013 6:28:45 PM PDT by ottbmare (the OTTB mare, now a proud Marine Mom)
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To: jpsb
Dude, there is snow in the Rockies from Colorado to Montana already.

It's gonna be a good Winter.

9 posted on 10/17/2013 6:29:26 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: Paladin2
i'd rather shove the board up his 0bama...
10 posted on 10/17/2013 6:29:26 PM PDT by Chode (Stand UP and Be Counted, or line up and be numbered - *DTOM* -vvv- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: ottbmare

Sure, 0C


11 posted on 10/17/2013 6:30:58 PM PDT by steve86 (Some things aren't really true but you wouldn't be half surprised if they were.)
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To: cripplecreek

I gotta check the 2-week forecast and see if it looks chilly here. I saw low 40’s here next week (Atlanta) but that was the 10-day.


12 posted on 10/17/2013 6:31:21 PM PDT by citizen (There is always free government cheese in the mouse trap.....https://twitter.com/kracker0)
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To: Paladin2

I think you are correct, gonna be a cold winter, it already is! Global warming is going to freeze all of us, damn.


13 posted on 10/17/2013 6:32:00 PM PDT by jpsb (Believe nothing until it has been officially denied)
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To: Chode
"i'd rather shove the board up his 0bama... "

Given that he is at PSU (and absolved by then Prezzy Spanier - a noted Wife-Swapping Studies Scholar), he'd enjoy that....

14 posted on 10/17/2013 6:32:20 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: ottbmare
This map is predicting 4 to 8 degrees below zero for Maryland in late October? I have a hard time believing that. It doesn’t even get that cold in January here.

It's an 850MB map. Those are not surface temps.

15 posted on 10/17/2013 6:32:53 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: ottbmare

I can’t really read the numbers on the image. I was looking at the overall path of the cold polar air.


16 posted on 10/17/2013 6:33:25 PM PDT by citizen (There is always free government cheese in the mouse trap.....https://twitter.com/kracker0)
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To: citizen

I am happy this is missing the PNW since I now have at least one week in mid October to make a trip into the mountains with 55-65F temps and clear skies (very unusual and I didn’t get up there all summer).


17 posted on 10/17/2013 6:36:03 PM PDT by steve86 (Some things aren't really true but you wouldn't be half surprised if they were.)
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To: citizen

Note that this map is for the 850 mb level and the temperature units are in °C NOT °F!!!!!!!


18 posted on 10/17/2013 6:36:25 PM PDT by halo66
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To: Paladin2
LOL...
19 posted on 10/17/2013 6:37:28 PM PDT by Chode (Stand UP and Be Counted, or line up and be numbered - *DTOM* -vvv- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: halo66

Like around 5,000 ft elevation, roughly.


20 posted on 10/17/2013 6:38:10 PM PDT by steve86 (Some things aren't really true but you wouldn't be half surprised if they were.)
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To: halo66

To put things in perspective...below is the Twin Cities NWS discussion for the long term:

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 1-2
WEEKS ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THE FIRST SNOW OF THE YEAR IN AT
LEAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS LITTLE QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS SATURATION THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER...BUT THE FORCING ISN`T GREAT. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
DIFFUSE AND THEREFORE THERE ISN`T VERY GOOD TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
WE WILL END UP WILL WITH A SLIGHT VEERING OF THE WIND FIELD BETWEEN
1000-600 MB AND A BROAD/WEAK OMEGA. EVEN WITH THE WEAK FORCING
SIGNAL...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MANAGE LIGHT SHOWERS GIVEN THE DEEP
SATURATION /ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO ICE/. WE`LL ALSO SEE THE
DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE LOWER AND ESTABLISH ITSELF LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAN IT HAS BEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR. WE ALSO THINK THE NEAR
SURFACE WARM LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW SNOWFLAKES TO
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND BY SATURDAY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

A STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
WILL SPREAD A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND LINGER PRECIP
INTO MONDAY. THE CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW AS
THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER TYPE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 1” OF SNOW IS AS HIGH AS
30-40% IN CENTRAL MN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT SOME POINT WE WILL
NEED 80-100% POPS FOR THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT THIS IS MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE FOR NORTHERN MN AND FAR NORTHWEST WI GIVEN THE LOW TRACK.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS THE BEST BET FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
/LITTLE ACCUMULATION/ ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GROUND TEMPS
DON`T SUPPORT ACCUMULATION AND THE SNOW RATES DON`T SEEM TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH OR LAST LONG ENOUGH FOR MUCH MORE THAN A SLUSHY 0.5-1.5” ON
GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. AFTER THE MONDAY SYSTEM...CONTINUED
COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEST WEEK. 5 TO
15 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES WILL LAST THROUGH THE
NEXT 2 WEEKS.


21 posted on 10/17/2013 6:38:57 PM PDT by halo66
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To: FreeReign
It's an 850MB map. Those are not surface temps.

Then how does this map translate into something we can understand? Knowing that my area is medium-to-light blue isn't too specific or helpful. If you understand these things, it would be kind to provide the rest of us with some information.

22 posted on 10/17/2013 6:40:58 PM PDT by ottbmare (the OTTB mare, now a proud Marine Mom)
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To: citizen

92 here in S.E. Florida but next wednesday is supposed to go down to the mid 50’s


23 posted on 10/17/2013 6:42:14 PM PDT by Joe Boucher ((FUBO) ( Hey Rubio, eat pooh pal))
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To: ottbmare

see post 21


24 posted on 10/17/2013 6:42:35 PM PDT by halo66
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To: citizen

According to accuweather (not always that accurate /grin) we are looking at 10-12 degree lower highs than “historical average” for at least 3 weeks.

Gonna be interesting to see how our snowfall plays out this winter.


25 posted on 10/17/2013 6:43:15 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s ((If you can remember the 60s.....you weren't really there)
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To: steve86

Holy carp!


26 posted on 10/17/2013 6:44:01 PM PDT by ottbmare (the OTTB mare, now a proud Marine Mom)
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To: jpsb

Already down in the mid 20s here in the morning in eastern California.


27 posted on 10/17/2013 6:44:53 PM PDT by Inyo-Mono (NRA)
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To: Chode

So you’ve been to Gay Valley and enjoyed Cunt Fest? ;-)


28 posted on 10/17/2013 6:45:56 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: citizen

Danged global warming freezing up again.


29 posted on 10/17/2013 6:46:59 PM PDT by RetiredArmy (I am proud to be a Christian and follower of my Lord Jesus Christ. Time is short for U to know Him!)
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To: halo66

Guess I need to replace my slicks (just trying to finish wearing out my tires) with the near full depth snow tires (the studded ones will have to remain in inventory until I leave the State - one that doesn’t “allow” studs).


30 posted on 10/17/2013 6:50:13 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: ottbmare

Below freezing not zero... If I’m reading it right.


31 posted on 10/17/2013 6:50:23 PM PDT by Frapster (frak)
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To: halo66

That looks pretty active. Is that normal for MN?


32 posted on 10/17/2013 6:50:33 PM PDT by citizen (There is always free government cheese in the mouse trap.....https://twitter.com/kracker0)
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To: halo66

That looks pretty active. Is that normal for MN?


33 posted on 10/17/2013 6:50:33 PM PDT by citizen (There is always free government cheese in the mouse trap.....https://twitter.com/kracker0)
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To: ottbmare

You’re OK. The map is saying that if you flew an aeroplane up to 5,000 feet you might encounter low temperatures of 18F to 24F (if you read the colors right — I haven’t looked for your location).


34 posted on 10/17/2013 6:51:05 PM PDT by steve86 (Some things aren't really true but you wouldn't be half surprised if they were.)
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To: Paladin2


35 posted on 10/17/2013 6:51:55 PM PDT by Chode (Stand UP and Be Counted, or line up and be numbered - *DTOM* -vvv- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: SandRat
"I live in SE AZ."

With all of the 'rats?

36 posted on 10/17/2013 6:52:24 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: Chode
Kool, (I guess not).

(I wuz just wondering)

37 posted on 10/17/2013 6:53:47 PM PDT by Paladin2
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To: SandRat
Don’t think I have to worry, I live in SE AZ.

So you're down to the low 90s? Freezing, I tell you!

38 posted on 10/17/2013 6:57:14 PM PDT by JRios1968 (I'm guttery and trashy, with a hint of lemon. - Laz)
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To: ChildOfThe60s
I just checked the 10 day forcast for Phoenix. Looks like it will be dropping all the way down to the mid 80's.

Brrrrrrrrrrrrr

39 posted on 10/17/2013 6:59:39 PM PDT by SMM48
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To: citizen

Michael Mann is the Penn State professor behind the falsification of data “proving” man-made Global Warming(TM). I believe he is famous for admitting in an email that they needed to “hide the decline” in temperatures to keep the global warming lie alive.


40 posted on 10/17/2013 7:02:17 PM PDT by SW6906 (6 things you can't have too much of: sex, money, firewood, horsepower, guns and ammunition.)
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To: SMM48
Looks like it will be dropping all the way down to the mid 80's.

Look, do not panic. Most car engines and home furnaces function well all the way down into the 70's. Relax. The idea is that your neighbors drop dead of hypothermia before you do. At that point I recommend cannibalism.

41 posted on 10/17/2013 7:06:30 PM PDT by Billthedrill
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To: SMM48

Weenie

Looks like central KY has seen the last of the 70s and within a week or two, the last of the 60s.

Now if we could just see the last of Mitch McConnell as soon I’d be very happy.


42 posted on 10/17/2013 7:07:12 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s ((If you can remember the 60s.....you weren't really there)
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To: ottbmare
For your area it looks like low to mid 50's daytime temps and lower 30's or upper 20's at night depending on how much radiational cooling you get.

If you get a low pressure system passing directly over your area, with those 850 mb temps, you could pull down enough cold air to get snow especially at night.

43 posted on 10/17/2013 7:07:55 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: Chode

If we could get rid of the tilt of our planet, we could get rid of this ‘weather’ problem.


44 posted on 10/17/2013 7:08:26 PM PDT by UCANSEE2 (The monsters are due on Maple Street)
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To: Paladin2

I live next a major Army Base.


45 posted on 10/17/2013 7:09:19 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty - Honor - Country! What else needs said?)
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To: JRios1968

Not til it’s below 80.


46 posted on 10/17/2013 7:11:19 PM PDT by SandRat (Duty - Honor - Country! What else needs said?)
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To: citizen

What is the weather going to be in Las Vegas next week? Any idea?


47 posted on 10/17/2013 7:11:52 PM PDT by Ditter
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To: ChildOfThe60s

“Now if we could just see the last of Mitch McConnell....”

I’m beginning to agree with that!


48 posted on 10/17/2013 7:24:00 PM PDT by citizen (There is always free government cheese in the mouse trap.....https://twitter.com/kracker0)
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To: UCANSEE2
LOL, yeah, seasons are over rated...
49 posted on 10/17/2013 7:24:51 PM PDT by Chode (Stand UP and Be Counted, or line up and be numbered - *DTOM* -vvv- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: Ditter

“What is the weather going to be in Las Vegas next week? Any idea?”

Dark tonight. Changing to light tomorrow. - George Carlin as Al Sleet, the hippy-dippy weather man.


50 posted on 10/17/2013 7:26:27 PM PDT by citizen (There is always free government cheese in the mouse trap.....https://twitter.com/kracker0)
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