Posted on 10/17/2013 6:23:24 PM PDT by citizen
The Polar Express is Leaving the Station
I’ve been watching the 10-day GFS forecast for the U.S., and each run is reinforcing the previous one, with a major cold air outbreak for most of the U.S. late next week.
Me: brrrrrr! Ice age coming? Some people think so.
To put things in perspective...below is the Twin Cities NWS discussion for the long term:
LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 1-2
WEEKS ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THE FIRST SNOW OF THE YEAR IN AT
LEAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS LITTLE QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. THERE IS SATURATION THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER...BUT THE FORCING ISN`T GREAT. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS
DIFFUSE AND THEREFORE THERE ISN`T VERY GOOD TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
WE WILL END UP WILL WITH A SLIGHT VEERING OF THE WIND FIELD BETWEEN
1000-600 MB AND A BROAD/WEAK OMEGA. EVEN WITH THE WEAK FORCING
SIGNAL...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MANAGE LIGHT SHOWERS GIVEN THE DEEP
SATURATION /ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO ICE/. WE`LL ALSO SEE THE
DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE LOWER AND ESTABLISH ITSELF LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAN IT HAS BEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR. WE ALSO THINK THE NEAR
SURFACE WARM LAYER WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW SNOWFLAKES TO
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND BY SATURDAY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
WILL SPREAD A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND LINGER PRECIP
INTO MONDAY. THE CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW AS
THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER TYPE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 1” OF SNOW IS AS HIGH AS
30-40% IN CENTRAL MN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT SOME POINT WE WILL
NEED 80-100% POPS FOR THIS DISTURBANCE...BUT THIS IS MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE FOR NORTHERN MN AND FAR NORTHWEST WI GIVEN THE LOW TRACK.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS THE BEST BET FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
/LITTLE ACCUMULATION/ ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GROUND TEMPS
DON`T SUPPORT ACCUMULATION AND THE SNOW RATES DON`T SEEM TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH OR LAST LONG ENOUGH FOR MUCH MORE THAN A SLUSHY 0.5-1.5” ON
GRASSY OR ELEVATED SURFACES. AFTER THE MONDAY SYSTEM...CONTINUED
COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEST WEEK. 5 TO
15 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES WILL LAST THROUGH THE
NEXT 2 WEEKS.
Then how does this map translate into something we can understand? Knowing that my area is medium-to-light blue isn't too specific or helpful. If you understand these things, it would be kind to provide the rest of us with some information.
92 here in S.E. Florida but next wednesday is supposed to go down to the mid 50’s
see post 21
According to accuweather (not always that accurate /grin) we are looking at 10-12 degree lower highs than “historical average” for at least 3 weeks.
Gonna be interesting to see how our snowfall plays out this winter.
Holy carp!
Already down in the mid 20s here in the morning in eastern California.
So you’ve been to Gay Valley and enjoyed Cunt Fest? ;-)
Danged global warming freezing up again.
Guess I need to replace my slicks (just trying to finish wearing out my tires) with the near full depth snow tires (the studded ones will have to remain in inventory until I leave the State - one that doesn’t “allow” studs).
Below freezing not zero... If I’m reading it right.
That looks pretty active. Is that normal for MN?
That looks pretty active. Is that normal for MN?
You’re OK. The map is saying that if you flew an aeroplane up to 5,000 feet you might encounter low temperatures of 18F to 24F (if you read the colors right — I haven’t looked for your location).
With all of the 'rats?
(I wuz just wondering)
So you're down to the low 90s? Freezing, I tell you!
Brrrrrrrrrrrrr
Michael Mann is the Penn State professor behind the falsification of data “proving” man-made Global Warming(TM). I believe he is famous for admitting in an email that they needed to “hide the decline” in temperatures to keep the global warming lie alive.
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