Skip to comments.Why Housing Markets Are Set To Tank Again
Posted on 11/24/2013 8:12:05 AM PST by SeekAndFind
In mid-September, a CNN Money headline reassured investors: Our Long National Foreclosure Nightmare Is Over. Sounds great! Now we can finally relax and be glad that Henry Paulson, the Fed and the Big Bankers saved us from the apocalypse.
Wait a second. Not so fast. Before you breathe a sigh of relief, why don't we take another good look at the real state of housing markets now. Let's examine some important charts, graphs and tables that the media does not cover.
Inventory of Homes for Sale: What It Tells Us
In numerous articles over the last two years, I have emphasized the importance of the huge decline in the number of homes for sale. Let me explain.
Since early 2010, servicing banks around the country have been sharply cutting back on foreclosing seriously delinquent homes and placing foreclosed properties on the market. Lately, they have also reduced the number of short sales which they approve.
In nearly all major markets, this has caused a tremendous plunge in the number of homes for sale. The following table -- using statistics from the online brokerage firm, Redfin - shows just how dramatic the drop in listings has been.
Take a good look at the collapse in active listings in Los Angeles and San Francisco. With such a huge decline, it is easy to see why buyers have bid up prices in those markets which have had the largest drop in homes for sale. In numerous articles written over the past two years, I have tried to show that this does not mean those markets have returned to a healthy state. Far from it.
In the metro markets described by the media as "hot," the decline in foreclosed homes (REOs) placed on the market has been the greatest.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearmarkets.com ...
Phoenix underway a curious solution. A number of syndicates showed up with cash, and bought dozens of homes....then turned them to a rental agency. Waiting quietly now for the prices to return to ‘norm’. Even if it’s ten years...fine, they will get income from the rental property and cover expenses. I’ve read that even Chinese syndicates were in on the investment opportunity.
I’d also note....this was a failure of regional proportions. There are vast regions and numerous states, which didn’t suffer through the 2008 stumble/fall on house prices.
If you look at Arlington and Fairfax, houses are at all-time records there in VA....and you can flip a house in one month easily, with substantial profit for the seller.
Well lets think.........90-million people without jobs? No that can’t be it. Must be Bush’s fault.
Gee, I reckon all these people living off food stamps, unemployment, disability, SSI, welfare, etc., can’t have the means to buy a house. Or even rent a better one.
There are many gallons of gasoline sitting in our financial house right now and housing remains a big one. The student loan bubble is another. Unaffordable entitlement spending is a big one. The banks have lots of them too beyond things the average person relates to. Consumer debt is a huge one as is government debt.
Obamacare is poised to suck lots of money out of an already tight economy for consumers and that will impact all of the above. Confidence in the dollar will be destroyed on our present path and inflation seems inevitable.
I think few understand the big picture and articles like this provide a window into a specific market. Not disagreeing with the author, only wondering out loud when the flame of inflation, government foolishness, an exploding entitlement class, and unemployment ignites everything.
Foolish people believe it won’t happen and they believe we are somehow immune to simple math. Wise people know the numbers don’t add up and we can’t sustain the illusion forever.
All is well in the Capital of Panem.
Because none of us young people are ever going to afford a house, perhaps?
The market-leaders read the future a lot better than OCommie and his welfare leech voters. There is talk of shutting down some business branches in the EU because they are not expected to recover for 50 years, according to another Freeper on another thread. It can’t be all that better here.
this does not even address the shadow inventory of completed forclosures and forclosure cases which are stuck in limbo.
Carlyle (one of the largest and most politically connected private equity outfits) is buying trailer parks.
That’s a very good indicator of the future of America.
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