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Reasons for Conservative Optimism in 2014
1/30/2014 | Me

Posted on 01/30/2014 5:24:09 PM PST by Viennacon

I detect an atmosphere of pessimism from conservatives going into 2014, and feel it is misplaced and a little foolish on our part to be feeling so low this year. The grassroots was the entire reason for success in 2010. It had nothing to do with Karl Rove and the GOPe. It was us, and while many will say capturing the House has done us no good, this isn't true. The House Republican caucus as of now is more conservative than it has ever been in modern memory. It may still be led by GOP establishmentarians like Boehner, but we now have a layer of trustworthy conservatives who will at some point, be the senior leadership. How soon that happens, depends on us. It depends on us working hard to elect conservatives to the US House, as well as the senate, and taking over the party with a majority. This is the only way forward, and there are plenty of very good reasons to be optimistic about 2014, for it has the potential to be a bigger victory for conservatives than 2010 was. The reasons I outline below.


TOPICS: Chit/Chat
KEYWORDS: 2014; 2014election; 2016election; conservative; election2014; election2016; house; senate
1) Not only will the House remain in Republican hands after 2014, a roadblock to many of the president's initiatives, but they will likely gain seats especially if the House Democrats focus resources on the senate and end up losing all their swing district seats. Why is this good for conservatives? Well, because the House itself will be more conservative in 2014 if we put effort into winning. Three races in particular grab my attention. The first is that Jim Matheson is almost certainly going to be replaced with Mia Love. From a blue dog Democrat to a solid conservative, that's a very good thing. We then have two Tea Party candidates running against relatively unpopular incumbents. Mike Simpson from Idaho, a massive porker for the COC, is being primaried by Bryan Smith, and in Texas, high ranking rep Sessions is being primaried by Katrina Pierson. These are races we can win, and should be invested in. There are other Democrats who could be swept out across the country from Tammy Suckworth in Illinois, to Kyrzsten Sinema in Arizona. A great opportunity to put more conservatives in the House. Ami Bera in California is also threatened by an Amash-style challenge from Igor Birman.

2) The House is very unlikely to pass amnesty. 2nd ranking senate member, John Cornyn, who is a standard bearer of the establishment has signaled that the House should move away from 'divisive' amnesty for political reasons. Boehner is a RINO, but he won't blow up chances of keeping his cushy job for longer. Despite Paul Ryan's wishes, 2014 will likely be just another year of gridlock with the biggest offenses to conservatives being the increase of our debt over and over.

3)Harry Reid is looking less and less likely to control the senate past the midterms. If every Republican candidate ahead by 4 points or more right now, went on to win, it would be light's out for Democrats. Steve Daines leads by 17 in Montana. Capito leads by more than 14 in West Virginia. Rounds leads by 6 in South Dakota (libertarian spoiler in case you're wondering). Cotton leads by 4 in Arkansas. Cassidy leads by 4 in Louisiana. Brannon leads by 4 in North Carolina.

That's six seats already, not counting the neck and neck race in Michigan, our 3 point deficits in New Hampshire (if Brown runs) and Colorado (if Buck wins the primary). It doesn't include Oregon and Iowa which are relatively competitive, or the Alaska race where the polling isn't very good right now.

It's true, a lot of these candidates are RINOs, some worse than others, but in addition to these races are our own primaries. We have conservative Ben Sasse likely to replace RINO Mike Johanns in Nebraska, and T.W. Shannon as a contender to replace flakey Coburn in Oklahoma, and Linda Graham is very unpopular in South Carolina, definitely beatable if Lee Bright ups his game. Right now, I haven't seen polling from Texas or Tennessee where incumbents are unpopular. The piece de resistance is McDaniel's run against incumbent Cochran in Mississippi. The race is tight. Cochran's fundraising has been poor. Another Lugar off to the sunset retirement home, and McDaniel is rock solid.

5) Democrats won't win Georgia. I was worried about this senates seat before, but the more I see, the more sure I get that Michelle Nunn has no chance of winning once the GOP coalesces. Another conservative pickup opportunity.

6) We have a real shot to take down the senate minority leader before we give the party the majority. A cruel irony for Mitch McConnell who has stabbed us in the back one too many times. Kentuckians have had enough of him, and Matt Bevin's campaign is gaining momentum. We can beat Mitch if we're willing to go all out like we did Dick Lugar.

Imagine a senate even just with Cruz, Scott, Lee, Paul, Brannon, Broun, Bevin, Sasse, Shannon, and McDaniel!

That's a senate with some real conservative muscle in it, backed by the reliable old guard like Sessions and Risch.

With all this in mind, conservatives should not be moping this year. We should be gearing up to give the left a bloody nose, taking control of the entire legislative branch, and pulling the GOP reins right as far as we possibly can.

Onward to victory!

1 posted on 01/30/2014 5:24:09 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: Viennacon

I am having a hard time having your level of optimism. I might find myself inadvertently stepping out into rush hour traffic and getting too close to bridges and construction sites will falling concrete. And inadvertently too close to grizzlies, lions, crocodiles, gators, venomous snakes and other such animals if I decide to go a more rural route.


2 posted on 01/30/2014 5:26:17 PM PST by freedom462
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To: Viennacon

If the pass amnesty all is lost & I suspect many more GOP voters won’t be showing up. I agree that knocking off a few of these knuckleheads in a primary (Pansy-Lindsay would be wonderful as would Cochran).


3 posted on 01/30/2014 5:27:03 PM PST by MSF BU (n)
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To: freedom462

Don’t do it!


4 posted on 01/30/2014 5:28:52 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: MSF BU

Lee Bright could use the SCF endorsement. He needs cash to take down Graham. Unfortunately, SCF is taking their sweet time about making endorsements. As much as I’m warming to Milton Wolf, there are much more important races for them to dive into.


5 posted on 01/30/2014 5:29:59 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: Viennacon

I will try not to, but it is very hard when I see what is happening and I know that I am completely incapable of doing anything about it or altering it even slightly. Makes for the severest of depressions.


6 posted on 01/30/2014 5:30:06 PM PST by freedom462
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To: Viennacon

Id be interested to see if House leadership doesnt manage to get 218 votes. They just let the crybabies get 20 votes. Some Dems may vote no. Maybe 10 or 20. Then you got leadership and the 26 Republicans who’ve been outed minus Labrador and Poe.

If they do I think it would be funny to see if Berni Sanders, Pryor, Hagan and and some other Dems manage to get 41 votes to block second class amnesty.

There is also going to be a war between ICE, Border Patrol, USCIS, House Judiciary, House leadership, GOP Senate Budget, GOP Senate Judiciary, Rand supporters and Tea Party.

The best way for Rand to split Buchanan, Perot and Ron Paul voters is with amnesty. They’ll vote for Allen West who is more interventionist.


7 posted on 01/30/2014 5:30:51 PM PST by ObamahatesPACoal
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To: Viennacon

If the GOP passes amnesty, the GOP is finished.


8 posted on 01/30/2014 5:31:09 PM PST by tennmountainman (Just Say No To Obamacare)
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To: Viennacon

Why do FReepers post a 1-2 sentence commentary in the main Article section, and then have all of the main content in their 1st commentary below. That is just completely annoying.


9 posted on 01/30/2014 5:36:54 PM PST by Extremely Extreme Extremist (15 years of FReeping! Congratulations EEE!!)
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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist

Extremely extremely annoying, but there is a character limit. :(


10 posted on 01/30/2014 5:38:41 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: Viennacon
Extremely extremely annoying, but there is a character limit

There is no character limit if you're posting a vanity. If you're posting an actual news article that needs to be excerpted, then there is.

Brevity is the soul of wit. Post your thoughts in the "Body of Thread," not in the "Body of Comment."

11 posted on 01/30/2014 5:44:39 PM PST by Extremely Extreme Extremist (15 years of FReeping! Congratulations EEE!!)
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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist

Thanks for the info


12 posted on 01/30/2014 5:46:52 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: freedom462

You forgot the rabid ocelot. Jus’ sayin’.


13 posted on 01/30/2014 5:49:02 PM PST by SgtBob (Freedom is not for the faint of heart. Semper Fi!)
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To: SgtBob

You are right, maybe when the depression comes, I gotta remember to kick at one of them when it is sleeping. And disturb a nest of Afrcanized honey bees too, I also forgot them.


14 posted on 01/30/2014 5:52:36 PM PST by freedom462
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To: Viennacon

While I appreciate your optimism, I don’t fully share it.. My prediction is closer to a 3-4 seat pickup for the GOP. For those candidates to hold their leads, we’ll have to see a flawless campaign from all of them. The GOP is maddeningly adept at pulling the dems out if the fire at the least opportune time. All it takes is one to venture off-message and blurt out some hair-grabbing gaffe about rape or some other hot-button issue.

I agree the GOP will hold the House; unless something unforeseen comes to pass, the dems don’t have enough firepower to put Pelosi in the Speaker’s chair again.


15 posted on 01/30/2014 5:53:08 PM PST by ScottinVA (Obama is so far in over his head, even his ears are beneath the water level.)
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To: SgtBob

No reason for optimism IMO


16 posted on 01/30/2014 5:57:02 PM PST by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans!)
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To: GeronL

Het RINOs can screw-up a dry dream...


17 posted on 01/30/2014 6:02:10 PM PST by SgtBob (Freedom is not for the faint of heart. Semper Fi!)
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To: Viennacon

If Amnesty is passed in the House, its over for the GOP. They will lose the House and not capture the Senate

Also, its more than just getting GOP elected....we need to remove the RINOs. It does no good to have a GOP controlled House and Senate when they legislate like Democrats. The GOP primaries are more important than the General election....and I am watching which GOP support which candidates....we will find out who the true conservatives are

Your scenario is not out of reach, however, the leftward drift of the GOP, Fox News, and other GOP Media, arent going to allow that to happen


18 posted on 01/30/2014 6:12:53 PM PST by SeminoleCounty (Amnesty And Not Ending ObamaCare Will Kill GOP In 2014)
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To: tennmountainman

Did you know that the establishment rockerfeller wing is in total panic? They lost FAT boy. and they have another Bush. They know that won’t work so i’ll be damned if they aren’y trotting out ROMNEY again!!! It happened. I noticed that Roger Ails was giving that loser face time on fox. Then today I read that some made up poll in New Hampshire has him in the lead. You can’t make this up. !!
But here is the deal. The Republcrats are blowing their head off with this amnesty crap. They KNOW!! It is therefore Suicide. But 20 million of us walk if they so much as give anything to these illegal aliens who are denying AMERICANS jobs at a time of 36% unemployment!! This is it for the whig republicans. We will destroy what is left and very soon. — 2014 elections!!


19 posted on 01/30/2014 6:14:17 PM PST by SADMILLIE
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To: Viennacon

Never, and I mean NEVER, underestimate the stupidity of the Republican Establishment. It is legion.


20 posted on 01/30/2014 6:15:13 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: ScottinVA

I look at the candidates and I don’t see any that are likely to implode. They’re all pretty experienced politicians without history of controversial statements. The one I might worry about is Mike Rounds, because he may have some scandal relating to his tenure as governor that I’ve heard rumblings of.

Aside from ‘implosions’, our candidates can lose just because they lack charisma. Rick Berg is a great example, but in that race you had a very good competent Democrat opponent. I’m looking at who the rats are fielding and a lot of these candidates are second tier no-names. The best new candidate the Democrats are running in 2014 is Bruce Braley in Iowa.

A lot of it will be dependent on Obamacare.


21 posted on 01/30/2014 6:16:33 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: SADMILLIE

Nice post. But if the GOP passes amnesty, it really does not matter
who runs in ANY election. The GOP will be finished. Kaput!


22 posted on 01/30/2014 6:18:00 PM PST by tennmountainman (Just Say No To Obamacare)
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To: tennmountainman

The GOP will be Kaput— Yes. What emerges is a real conservative party with less government ( and I don’t mean a little bit).


23 posted on 01/30/2014 6:27:22 PM PST by SADMILLIE
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To: SADMILLIE

I’m for it! Let the Kaput begin!


24 posted on 01/30/2014 6:45:46 PM PST by tennmountainman (Just Say No To Obamacare)
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To: MSF BU

analysis is correct. Everyone now understands that this is the only thing that will ruin the gop, and why they are playing with fire is beyond me. Yes the republicans often do stupid things, but this is complete suicide.


25 posted on 01/30/2014 8:37:48 PM PST by genghis
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To: Viennacon

I’m as sanguine as you. Good analysis. FReepers need to work the House campaigns and get involved in the Senate. If we take those two, Obama’s games grind to a halt.

He and his crew know this. They will use every lever of government against us. Publicize it and satirize them to death. We can and must win.


26 posted on 01/31/2014 8:00:07 AM PST by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Viennacon

Unless the GOP completely spikes it (like they did in 1998) they’ll gain seats, that’s how second midterms work. Now will the gain seats with conservatives or just guys with Rs after their names has yet to be seen.


27 posted on 01/31/2014 8:04:50 AM PST by discostu (I don't meme well.)
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To: genghis

My hope on amnesty is that the Republican leaders are playing along with engaging on it as a delaying tactic. If the Dems are forced to admit that “good faith” efforts are underway (as they have) they’re limited in using it as a campaign issue.

This is a good thing. And I think the Dems are aware of the consequences of the GOP successfully playing it that way; which is why Obama’s starting to back away from a path to citizenship

Question therefore is whether the Republicans are smart enough to play it as a delaying tactic. Again i hope they are, and I’m willing to cut them a little bit of slack up until the point where something actually passes.


28 posted on 01/31/2014 8:12:33 AM PST by tanknetter
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