Skip to comments.APPLE IS THE NEW MICROSOFT: Barclays Downgrades Apple, Says It's Doomed To Be Range-Bound
Posted on 02/20/2014 8:54:57 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Apple is the new Microsoft, says Barclays analyst Ben Reitzes. He downgraded the stock from "overweight" to "equalweight" (which is like going from buy to hold). He sticks with his $570 price target.
He believes the stock will be stuck in a tight trading range for the next year or so.
"Frankly, we just couldnt quite bring ourselves to use smart watches or TVs as reasons to raise numbers nor were we fully convinced that these products could move the needle like new categories did in the old days," says Reitzes. "As a result, we believe it is time to step aside, given a maturing smart phone market."
He says he's excited as a consumer for what Apple has in store, but as an investor, he doesn't see it doing much.
"We believe Apples story is all about iPhones and 'new categories' seem to be designed to make the iPhone more useful but dont necessarily re-accelerate growth in the iPhone category to sustainable double-digit levels."
He delivers a final dagger, saying, "We look at a valuation analogy vs. Microsoft from 2000 to about 2010 and see no precedent that large-size tech companies simply start to broadly outperform again after a tough year or two if the law of large numbers is catching up to them and margins have peaked."
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
A balloon can only rise so high.
A committee of half-Jobs can’t synthesize a Jobs.
Jay Yarrow sees MS & Apple as equivalent
technologically and management style.
I don't think so.
However Cook is a new player and is not Jobs
The fabulous replacement CEO is not Steve Jobs.
I am much more worried about Microsoft than Apple.
Back near 2000, lots of the PC companies gained/lost share by stealing customers from competitors.
ie Gateway, Compaq, Dell, IBM, HP, Toshiba...
Now we pretty much have Lenovo, Dell and HP.
Apple’s only big problem, and it is a BIG one is android phones.
Their computers, MacBook and the new Mac Pro are the best on the planet.
From someone who had never owned a Mac till 2 months ago.
Buy! Buy! Buy!
The logical next big thing is Dr. McCoy's tricorder.
Priced so anyone can buy one.
It's coming, but not from Apple.
Apples big problem is they made the same mistake with the phone that they did with the PC.
They aren’t getting the phone back. The ship has sailed.
Cars are what is next. Car telemetry, satellite analysis of traffic, better richer content (audio books, language lessons, better news), organization of schedule and files between home, car, and office.
And all of it with privacy.
Facebook just paid WhatsApp $19B. 55 person company. All the app does is allow texting, for free — but with complete privacy. No copies of messages on the phone or the server.
Microsoft? Botched the Xbox One launch. Botched the Surface launch, and relaunch. Botched Azure. Botched Office 365. Botched Win8. Botched WinPhone. Botched Nokia purchase. Good thing Office still brings in the bucks that it does.
Law of large numbers, entanglement with the FedGov and other world govs, and a hiring regimen that kills innovation and you’ve got Apple and Microsoft.
Jonathan Ive is responsible for where Apple is, not Steve Jobs.
They've never had a majority market share with mobile phones (20-25% top). But they do get almost all of the profit.
Apple is not Microsoft. They have very different business models, and using one's history to predict the other is... less than scientific. That's not to say they can't wind up with similar long-term results, but one is not predictive of the other.
Ive himself disagrees with you. From your link:
“”In so many other companies, ideas and great design get lost in the process,” Ive said. “The ideas that come from me and my team would have been completely irrelevant, nowhere, if Steve hadn’t been here to push us, work with us, and drive through all the resistance to turn our ideas into products”
You make a good point, though.
Is Ive still with Apple?
Then there's nothing to worry about. Buy, buy, buy. Think of all the money you'll make.
I don’t own anything of Apple.
[Actions] > [Words]
Apple has enough cash in the bank today, that if they never sold another product ever.... they could still operate and make payroll and bills for another Decade.
Apple is no MS, MS at this point in their growth was busy firing perfectly good and talented engineers because of a management decision regarding evaluations..... They missed the internet and had to lie cheat and steal to catch up... They missed mobile and no longer can lie cheat and steal to catch up.. they were so busy trying to defend what they had they missed what was coming... That’s been MS’s MO for over 2 decades now.
Apple is nowhere near a MS... will they change the world again in the short term? Probably not... but they will keep trying to. MS gave up on that long long long ago.
I don’t understand your riddle.
It's not a riddle.
Maybe it should be then. ‘Cause I have no idea what you are on about.
As you wish.
They owned the smartphone market for a while. But that was back when dumb phones ruled so their total market share did not reflect their true technological dominance.
The have missed several large moves in the market over the last several years, and they are now reacting to markets rather than creating them.
I was surprised by the popularity of the iPad so I could be wrong about wearables and an Apple branded TV but I don’t se either as an area that can replace previous growth in phone sales.
what happens to Apple when other
iPhone like devices sell for ten bucks?
how much better can they make the display.
the current display is 300 (or so) pixels per inch.
how much is enough/
Apple survived their mistake by creating a new category of product - a brand new market.
They came out with a product excellent value discipline that they’ve been consistent with since they introduced the Mac.
Problem with that value discipline is that you have to keep creating new categories or justifying the price difference in your product. Android shattered the category, like most operationally efficient value discipline type strategies do.
Back in 2003 when Apple stock was around $10 a share I did look at it but decided that Apple had less then 10% of the computer market so I bought Gateway computer stock instead and after several years lost about $30,000....
If I had bought Apple stock (5,000 shares) with the money I had at that time I would have made at it’s peak about $3.5 million!
I now own Ford stock and tripled my money but passed up TRW when it was at the same price. I could have made 5 times more..... they make car parts among other things.
So if you guys want to know what stock to buy I suggest picking my rejects. You will become rich!
I thought about buying Microsoft when Windows was introduced, running more than one DOS program was the future baby! Never got around to it.
I thought about picking up Apple shares when Microsoft bailed them out just because it was obvious that Microsoft had an interest in keeping them afloat, never got around to it.
When Bitcoin came out I thought about buying a couple hundred because is was the going to be the way you paid for small stuff on the internet. Never got around to it.
We ought to form a joint venture.
It may be the new MS, but even with that, it will still outlast and run better anything MS puts up.