A well reasoned post. I think there are many in denial of what will most likely happen. The Protestant “Roman clone churches” have already gone down this road of accepting “gay marriage”, ordaining women and even ordaining sodomites.
Traditional and Conservative Roman Catholics should be planning for another schism.
Eventually the comments of “the Pope is not speaking ex cathedra” will no longer suffice. Because on these very important moral matters the Pope will indeed have to go that way to make the “changes” he plans to make, if he ever makes such a decision. And then what happens...You have the Traditional Conservative Roman Catholics in effect betrayed by their church head. Where to go from there? One cannot impeach a pope now can they?
For serious, orthodox Catholics, if this comes to pass, they have no place left.
One of the core dogma’s in the Catholic church is that the Pope can NOT be wrong in regards to faith and morals.
If that happens, you will not have a schism, but an apostasy. The Pope making a statement that is against the faith and morals of the ancient church means that either the Papal infallibility is wrong (which as a Catholic, it is considered a dogma) or that Francis is not the Pope. Either path leads to the end of the Catholic church as it is today.
Some will try to go Orthodox, but that isn’t all it appears to be either. Many will fall away.