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Spurious Correlations
Tyler Vigen ^

Posted on 05/13/2014 4:47:59 AM PDT by Gamecock



US spending on science, space, and technology
correlates with
Suicides by hanging, strangulation and suffocation


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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
US spending on science, space, and technology
Millions of todays dollars (US OMB)
18,079 18,594 19,753 20,734 20,831 23,029 23,597 23,584 25,525 27,731 29,449
Suicides by hanging, strangulation and suffocation
Deaths (US) (CDC)
5,427 5,688 6,198 6,462 6,635 7,336 7,248 7,491 8,161 8,578 9,000
Correlation: 0.992082

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Number people who drowned by falling into a swimming-pool
correlates with
Number of films Nicolas Cage appeared in


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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Number people who drowned by falling into a swimming-pool
Deaths (US) (CDC)
109 102 102 98 85 95 96 98 123 94 102
Number of films Nicolas Cage appeared in
Films (IMDB)
2 2 2 3 1 1 2 3 4 1 4
Correlation: 0.666004

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Per capita consumption of cheese (US)
correlates with
Number of people who died by becoming tangled in their bedsheets


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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Per capita consumption of cheese (US)
Pounds (USDA)
29.8 30.1 30.5 30.6 31.3 31.7 32.6 33.1 32.7 32.8
Number of people who died by becoming tangled in their bedsheets
Deaths (US) (CDC)
327 456 509 497 596 573 661 741 809 717
Correlation: 0.947091

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Divorce rate in Maine
correlates with
Per capita consumption of margarine (US)


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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Divorce rate in Maine
Divorces per 1000 people (US Census)
5 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1
Per capita consumption of margarine (US)
Pounds (USDA)
8.2 7 6.5 5.3 5.2 4 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.7
Correlation: 0.992558

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Age of Miss America
correlates with
Murders by steam, hot vapours and hot objects


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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Age of Miss America
Years (Wikipedia)
24 24 24 21 22 21 24 22 20 19 22
Murders by steam, hot vapours and hot objects
Deaths (US) (CDC)
7 7 7 3 4 3 8 4 2 3 2
Correlation: 0.870127

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Per capita consumption of mozzarella cheese (US)
correlates with
Civil engineering doctorates awarded (US)


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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Per capita consumption of mozzarella cheese (US)
Pounds (USDA)
9.3 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.5 11 10.6 10.6
Civil engineering doctorates awarded (US)
Degrees awarded (National Science Foundation)
480 501 540 552 547 622 655 701 712 708
Correlation: 0.958648

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Number of people who died by becoming tangled in their bedsheets
correlates with
Total revenue generated by skiing facilities (US)


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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Number of people who died by becoming tangled in their bedsheets
Deaths (US) (CDC)
327 456 509 497 596 573 661 741 809 717
Total revenue generated by skiing facilities (US)
Dollars in millions (US Census)
1,551 1,635 1,801 1,827 1,956 1,989 2,178 2,257 2,476 2,438
Correlation: 0.969724

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US crude oil imports from Norway
correlates with
Drivers killed in collision with railway train


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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
US crude oil imports from Norway
Millions of barrels (Dept. of Energy)
96 110 103 127 60 54 43 36 20 11 22
Drivers killed in collision with railway train
Deaths (US) (CDC)
76 74 76 87 66 59 63 60 55 52 46
Correlation: 0.954509

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Per capita consumption of sour cream (US)
correlates with
Motorcycle riders killed in noncollision transport accident


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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Per capita consumption of sour cream (US)
Half-pints (USDA)
6.1 6.5 6.7 7.5 7.9 8.3 7.9 8.2 7.9 7.8
Motorcycle riders killed in noncollision transport accident
Deaths (US) (CDC)
35 34 33 47 54 63 44 56 55 51
Correlation: 0.916391

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People who drowned after falling out of a fishing boat
correlates with
Marriage rate in Kentucky


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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
People who drowned after falling out of a fishing boat
Deaths (US) (CDC)
19 16 9 12 15 10 11 7 2 5 1 1
Marriage rate in Kentucky
Marriages per 1000 people (US Census)
10.9 9.8 9 9 9.1 8.8 8.7 8.4 7.8 7.9 7.6 7.4
Correlation: 0.952407

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Per capita consumption of chicken (US)
correlates with
Total US crude oil imports


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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Per capita consumption of chicken (US)
Pounds (USDA)
54.2 54 56.8 57.5 59.3 60.5 60.9 59.9 58.7 56
Total US crude oil imports
Millions of barrels (Dept. of Energy)
3,311 3,405 3,336 3,521 3,674 3,670 3,685 3,656 3,571 3,307
Correlation: 0.899899

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Honey producing bee colonies (US)
correlates with
Marriage rate in Vermont


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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Honey producing bee colonies (US)
Thousands of colonies (USDA)
2,652 2,622 2,550 2,574 2,599 2,554 2,409 2,394 2,443 2,342 2,498
Marriage rate in Vermont
Marriages per 1000 people (US Census)
10 10 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.4 8.9 8.6 8.5 7.9 8.7
Correlation: 0.937689

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Number of people who were electrocuted by power lines
correlates with
Marriage rate in Alabama


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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Number of people who were electrocuted by power lines
Deaths (US) (CDC)
127 99 83 109 96 94 105 93 88 84 71 63
Marriage rate in Alabama
Marriages per 1000 people (US Census)
10.8 10.1 9.4 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.2 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.2
Correlation: 0.903602

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Total number of Political Action Committees (US)
correlates with
People who died by falling out of their wheelchair


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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total number of Political Action Committees (US)
PACs (Federal Election Commission)
3,835 3,907 3,891 4,027 3,868 4,184 4,210 4,183 4,234 4,611 4,481
People who died by falling out of their wheelchair
Deaths (US) (CDC)
169 154 157 209 274 360 356 377 392 471 436
Correlation: 0.915876

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Worldwide non-commercial space launches
correlates with
Sociology doctorates awarded (US)


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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Worldwide non-commercial space launches
Launches (FAA)
54 46 42 50 43 41 46 39 37 45 45 41 54
Sociology doctorates awarded (US)
Degrees awarded (National Science Foundation)
601 579 572 617 566 547 597 580 536 579 576 601 664
Correlation: 0.78915

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Number people who drowned while in a swimming-pool
correlates with
Power generated by nuclear power plants (US)


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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Number people who drowned while in a swimming-pool
Deaths (US) (CDC)
421 465 494 538 430 530 511 600 582 605 603
Power generated by nuclear power plants (US)
Billion kW-hours (Dept. of Energy)
728.3 753.9 768.8 780.1 763.7 788.5 782 787.2 806.4 806.2 798.9
Correlation: 0.901179

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Divorce rate in Mississippi
correlates with
Murders by bodily force


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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Divorce rate in Mississippi
Divorces per 1000 people (US Census)
5 5 5 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.3
Murders by bodily force
Deaths (US) (CDC)
166 139 142 103 93 61 57 89 62 74 53 58
Correlation: 0.890472

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Per capita consumption of eggs (US)
correlates with
Drivers killed in noncollision transport accident


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2000 2001 2002 2003 b>2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Per capita consumption of eggs (US)
Eggs (USDA)
251 252 255 255 257 256 258 250 247 246.1
Drivers killed in noncollision transport accident
Deaths (US) (CDC)
1,430 1,461 1,726 1,603 1,515 1,541 1,600 1,413 1,136 1,119
Correlation: 0.884999

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Honey producing bee colonies (US)
inversely correlates with
Juvenile arrests for possession of marijuana (US)


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Honey producing bee colonies (US)
Thousands of colonies (USDA)
'90: 3,220; '91: 3,211; '92: 3,045; '93: 2,875; '94: 2,783; '95: 2,655; '96: 2,581; '97: 2,631; '98: 2,637; '99: 2,652; '00: 2,622; '01: 2,550; '02: 2,574; '03: 2,599; '04: 2,554; '05: 2,409; '06: 2,394; '07: 2,443; '08: 2,342; '09: 2,498
Juvenile arrests for possession of marijuana (US)
Arrests (DEA)
'90: 20,940; '91: 16,490; '92: 25,004; '93: 37,915; '94: 61,003; '95: 82,015; '96: 87,712; '97: 94,046; '98: 91,467; '99: 89,523; '00: 95,962; '01: 97,088; '02: 85,769; '03: 87,909; '04: 87,717; '05: 88,909; '06: 95,120; '07: 97,671; '08: 93,042; '09: 90,927
Correlation: -0.933389

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US crude oil imports from Venezuela
correlates with
Per capita consumption of high fructose corn syrup (US)


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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
US crude oil imports from Venezuela
Millions of barrels (Dept. of Energy)
446 471 438 436 473 449 416 420 381 352
Per capita consumption of high fructose corn syrup (US)
Pounds (USDA)
62.6 62.5 62.8 60.9 59.8 59.1 58.2 56.1 53 50.1
Correlation: 0.884883

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TOPICS: Humor; Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 05/13/2014 4:47:59 AM PDT by Gamecock
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To: Gamecock

Can’t sleep now...


2 posted on 05/13/2014 4:54:30 AM PDT by Dallas59 ("Remember me as you pass by, As you are now, so once was I, As I am now, so you will be")
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To: Gamecock
Wow, this is awesome. I have to bookmark this.

Note the legend at the bottom:

The 20 charts on this page were generated automatically by a computer.

If you click this link, it will generate a new set of spurious correlations every time you reload the page:

http://www.tylervigen.com/page?new=TRUE

3 posted on 05/13/2014 4:59:03 AM PDT by justlurking (tagline removed, as demanded by Admin Moderator)
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To: Dallas59

Me either! When I was young and had braces, I had to wear headgear. I woke up with the bedsheets and blankets strangling me because they got tangled in my headgear. Needless to say, my teeth were sore and the headgear got lost somehow.

I had no idea there were that many deaths per year caused by entanglement in bedsheets.


4 posted on 05/13/2014 4:59:43 AM PDT by jurroppi1 (The only thing you "pass to see what's in it" is a stool sample. h/t MrB)
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To: Gamecock

Spend more money on space exploration, have fewer lab rats to send into space for experiments. Got it.


5 posted on 05/13/2014 5:00:58 AM PDT by rarestia (It's time to water the Tree of Liberty.)
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To: Gamecock
Per capita consumption of mozzarella cheese (US) correlates with Civil engineering doctorates awarded (US)

Well duh!

Students eat lots of pizza. :)

6 posted on 05/13/2014 5:02:19 AM PDT by Harmless Teddy Bear (Proud Infidel, Gun Nut, Religious Fanatic and Freedom Fiend)
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To: jurroppi1
Then there are those meteors everyone is talking about...




7 posted on 05/13/2014 5:03:21 AM PDT by Dallas59 ("Remember me as you pass by, As you are now, so once was I, As I am now, so you will be")
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To: Dallas59

I don’t suppose you have any links handy?


8 posted on 05/13/2014 5:07:36 AM PDT by jurroppi1 (The only thing you "pass to see what's in it" is a stool sample. h/t MrB)
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To: jurroppi1
The True Story of History's Only Known Meteorite Victim
9 posted on 05/13/2014 5:12:16 AM PDT by Dallas59 ("Remember me as you pass by, As you are now, so once was I, As I am now, so you will be")
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To: Gamecock

my husband got entangled in our bedsheets once and ripped them to shreds getting out of them. It was a loss because they were the nicest set of sheets I had ever owned. Who knew sheets could be so deadly? Don’t let the liberals hear of it though, they’ll have to regulate or ban them altogether.


10 posted on 05/13/2014 5:12:36 AM PDT by mitzirenee
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To: Gamecock

For my doctorate, I’m using qualitative research methods vs quantitative. This website illustrates the issue I have with quantitative methods. The researcher hides his bias behind empirical data that he chooses to include. the qualitative researcher makes no attempt to hide bias. They tell stories, and the reader can choose whether or not the research is valid.


11 posted on 05/13/2014 5:16:41 AM PDT by demshateGod (The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God.)
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To: Gamecock

Honey producing bee colonies (US)
inversely correlates with
Juvenile arrests for possession of marijuana (US)

Upload this chart to imgur

Honey producing bee colonies (US)
Thousands of colonies (USDA) ‘90: 3,220; ‘91: 3,211; ‘92: 3,045; ‘93: 2,875; ‘94: 2,783; ‘95: 2,655; ‘96: 2,581; ‘97: 2,631; ‘98: 2,637; ‘99: 2,652; ‘00: 2,622; ‘01: 2,550; ‘02: 2,574; ‘03: 2,599; ‘04: 2,554; ‘05: 2,409; ‘06: 2,394; ‘07: 2,443; ‘08: 2,342; ‘09: 2,498
Juvenile arrests for possession of marijuana (US)
Arrests (DEA) ‘90: 20,940; ‘91: 16,490; ‘92: 25,004; ‘93: 37,915; ‘94: 61,003; ‘95: 82,015; ‘96: 87,712; ‘97: 94,046; ‘98: 91,467; ‘99: 89,523; ‘00: 95,962; ‘01: 97,088; ‘02: 85,769; ‘03: 87,909; ‘04: 87,717; ‘05: 88,909; ‘06: 95,120; ‘07: 97,671; ‘08: 93,042; ‘09: 90,927
Correlation: -0.933389

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This one is not Displaying a graph


12 posted on 05/13/2014 5:24:36 AM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: Gamecock

Wow, talk about “Correlation is NOT Causation”!

Now we know where Michael Mann got his Hockey Stick Graph...

“Number of TV Commercials featuring Gerbils, Hamsters & Guinea Pigs” vs “Atmospheric CO2 Concentration (downwind of fossil fueled power-plants)”


13 posted on 05/13/2014 6:41:27 AM PDT by BwanaNdege ( "...[willful] ignorance is the opiate of academic elites." - Mike Adams [BN edit])
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To: Gamecock

Per capita consumption of chicken (US)
correlates with
Total US crude oil imports

Those two may actually be connected.


14 posted on 05/13/2014 7:25:52 AM PDT by BenLurkin (This is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion or satire; or both.)
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To: BenLurkin

True!


15 posted on 05/13/2014 7:45:45 AM PDT by Gamecock (The covenant is a stunning blend of law and love. (TK))
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To: demshateGod

Is your doctorate in a science or a “soft” subject?

My doctoral research absolutely depended on quantitative data. It would be difficult to get a hard science doctorate on the basis of qualitative data.

Correlations, shown here, are not very powerful at showing relationships—and, as these graphs show, one can find a correlation between many random sets of data. I’m not going to climb on a soap box here, but I have very strong opinions about the sheer number of papers published on the basis of nothing more than a statistical correlation.

I use correlation coefficient (r-squared) rather than correlation (r), and that is to show the quality of my experimentally measured values. I have rejected data sets whose r-squared values were less than 0.99. A correlation coefficient is far more powerful than a simple correlation.


16 posted on 05/20/2014 3:35:24 AM PDT by exDemMom (Current visual of the hole the US continues to dig itself into: http://www.usdebtclock.org/)
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To: exDemMom

I’m studying architecture and postmodernism. How do architects develop ethics for design in the absence of metanarratives? I’m influenced by Allan Bloom’s closing of the American Mind and my experience as an architect who has struggled to advocate for aesthetic exploration. My struggle hasn’t been with clients, but senior architects.


17 posted on 05/20/2014 4:25:01 AM PDT by demshateGod (The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God.)
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To: demshateGod
How do architects develop ethics for design in the absence of metanarratives?

Interesting. I won't lie--each individual word in that sentence has a specific meaning, but when you string them all together like that, I have no idea what concept you are trying to convey. This is because I have no familiarity with that subject.

My own doctoral study was fairly straightforward. It was not easy--it ended up taking me 7 years--but the path was clear. I am always fascinated by the process of earning a PhD in a non-science field. What kind of research do you do? What are the questions you are trying to answer? How do you demonstrate a PhD level of mastery in the field?

18 posted on 05/21/2014 4:54:20 AM PDT by exDemMom (Current visual of the hole the US continues to dig itself into: http://www.usdebtclock.org/)
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To: exDemMom

Architecture is a business, a science, and an art form. Most architecture firms ignore the art form part. Aesthetics becomes and after thought, or applied decoration, or a buffet of styles. The client gets to chose from the buffet: I want French Country, I want Tuscon, I want Prairie Gothic. Some of the styles don’t even exist. What I’m saying is, as an art form, architecture has to transcend style and have emotional meaning. Where does that come from when ?

Modernism (architectural) had a metanarrative that sought to unite the world in some stupid utopia imagined by German philosophers. It was exposed and is defunct. Now there’s nothing. Architecture can be a very dissatisfying career for people who enter it thinking it’s an art form. Is there an ethic that promotes the art of architect? I think some people are trying, and what they’re coming up with is scary: Sustainability and crowd sourcing come to mind, both having a leftist agenda and a stifling affect on creativity.

As far as how the research will contribute to the field of architecture, which answers you question about PhD level mastery, it will tell the architects’ story: what their expectation were, what they think will make their career more rewarding. I’ll attempt to show how ethics (morality) affects the art of architecture. I’ll ask open ended question of as many architects, students, and educators, I’ll observe, I’ll read.

Excuse the rambling. I’ll hopefully have a more concise answer a year from now.


19 posted on 05/21/2014 5:20:51 AM PDT by demshateGod (The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God.)
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