Skip to comments.Australia says missing Malaysia plane not where 'pings' heard
Posted on 05/29/2014 5:01:13 AM PDT by Uncle Chip
The search for a missing Malaysia Airlines MASM.KL jetliner suffered a further setback on Thursday after Australian officials said wreckage from the aircraft was not on the seabed in the area they had identified....
The search was narrowed last month after a series of acoustic pings thought to be from the plane's black box recorders were heard near where analysis of satellite data put its last location, some 1,600 km (1,000 miles) off the northwest coast of Australia.
"The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) has advised that the search in the vicinity of the acoustic detections can now be considered complete and, in its professional judgment, the area can now be discounted as the final resting place of MH370," the agency in charge of the search said in a statement.
ATSB chief Martin Dolan told Reuters he expected the team to take two to three weeks to reassess and re-analyze the data, although he was "confident" that the final resting place of the aircraft was the Indian Ocean....
"We concentrated the search in that area because the pings were the best information available at the time," Australian Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss, who is also the transport minister, told the Australian parliament.
"We are still very confident that the resting place of the aircraft is in the southern (Indian) Ocean, and along the seventh ping line," he added, referring to an arc identified by analysis of satellite communications data from UK company Inmarsat Plc ISA.L.
Earlier on Thursday, CNN quoted Michael Dean, the U.S. Navy's deputy director of ocean engineering, and said authorities now almost universally believe the pings did not come from the plane's onboard data or cockpit voice recorders.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
I seem to remember reading a few years ago that our Navy had wired a microphone grid spanning all the Oceans so we could track Soviet subs. This network should nave heard the plane impact the Ocean where ever it came down and any pings from it as well.
Here it is . . . http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SOSUS
This network should have heard something and triangulated the sound to a specific location.
THAT — together with the fact that the 4ELTs onboard did not activate, that no debris from the plane after nearly 3 months has ever been found or washed up on any beaches, that the family has stated unequivocably that the captain was not suicidal, that the captain spent most of last year practicing extreme emergency water type landings on his computer, that the pilot flew low enough over Penang to make a cellphone call to someone to confirm the time and place of a pick-up — is all ample evidence that the plane was carefully landed in a place of the pilot’s choosing and did not crash because it ran out of fuel.
Until the authorities come to grips with that they will never find the plane.
Mind games or deliberate disinformation —
They have no evidence that the plane ran out of fuel — just pure assumption.
They have no evidence that the plane was being directed by any force other than a pilot bent on his own survival who spent the last year practicing extreme [water] landings.
They have no evidence of a crash versus a landing by such a pilot.
They have no evidence that the plane could not have gone down up closer to Indonesia where the last Inmarsat arc intersects Jakarta.
Inmarsat data, which has now been tested and retested and released to the public, shows that the plane could just as easily be parked at Jakarta International Airport as in the search area off Australia where no pilot would want to land a plane.
So why are they avoiding Indonesia like a plague???
Inmarsat 8:11 arc —
UPDATED KML FILES FOR PING RINGS
Time Satellite to Elevation Ring Ring
UTC Aircraft (km) Angle Radius(km) Radius (nm)
[MH370 on the ground at KLA]
16 27 59 37296.19 37.18 4138.96 2234.86
16 41 53 37293.52 37.15 4135.05 2232.75
16 42 4 37290.46 37.11 4131.06 2230.60
16 42 17 37296.37 37.19 4139.71 2235.27
16 42 48 37290.16 37.11 4130.65 2230.37
16 43 12 37290.01 37.10 4130.45 2230.27
[MH370 has taken off and is on the way to Beijing]
16 55 38 37327.22 37.66 4192.73 2263.89
16 56 17 37332.97 37.74 4201.50 2268.63
17 6 49 37383.13 38.41 4275.56 2308.62
17 7 19 37382.98 38.41 4275.35 2308.50
17 7 49 37385.80 38.44 4279.36 2310.67
[MH370 turned around and began heading to the west northwest in the direction of the Andamans and the satellite]
18 27 4 36906.07 31.86 3546.32 1914.86
18 27 4 36900.07 31.77 3536.39 1909.50
18 27 8 36900.07 31.77 3536.39 1909.50
18 28 6 36900.07 31.77 3536.39 1909.50
18 28 15 36893.87 31.68 3526.08 1903.93
[MH370 turned south southwest heading directly toward the satellite whose geostationary position is at the equator ]
19 41 3 36740.62 29.31 3262.87 1761.81
[MH370 crosses the equator on its way south and thus is now flying at an angle away from the equatorial satellite position]
20 41 5 36780.97 29.95 3333.89 1800.16
[MH370 is now flying south southeast on a more direct path away from the satellite]
21 41 27 36949.66 32.50 3617.86 1953.49
[MH370 has turned further east and is now flying a more direct path eastward away from the satellite]
22 41 22 37233.50 36.46 4058.16 2191.23
24 11 0 37798.16 43.47 4839.29 2613.01
Log On request made from KLA terminal at 18:03 and then followed by Voice Call at 18:39. Though both went unanswered they would not have gone unnoticed:
Shortly afterwards the pilot takes MH370 off its northwesterly heading and veers south as if now realizing that ground control now know where he is and what he is doing and where he is heading.
At this point he was just barely north of Sumatra and able to skirt Indonesian radar as he turned south.
Inmarsat Frequency Burst chart shows significant change of frequency southwest toward the satellite at 18:29 proximate position N7.5E96 just above Sumatran Banda Aceh N5.55EE95.31 travelling at 485mph.
Trying to escape Malaysian radar and then avoid Indonesian radar the pilot turns SSW @ 485mph and 566 miles putting its position 70 minutes later just below the equator at its most westerly point relative to satellite at S0.5E94 @ 19:40.
From KLA until 19:40 the plane covered 1438 miles over 3 hours and had enough fuel onboard for another 5 hours @ 485mph or 2425 miles.
Australia is 2200 miles from that point meaning that if it flew until it ran out of fuel in that direction then it would be somewhere in western Australia.
485mph due south of its 19:40 position for 242 miles for another half hour would put it at S4.0E94 @ 20:11 before turning to the more easterly direction at which point the pilot would have slowed down as he turned more easterly.
The plane would have travelled 1734 miles over 3.5 miles to that point and from there to the search area S20E103.5 is another 1276 miles. It could have cruised to the search area then @ 319mph to be there at 0:11 — 4 hours later.
Distance from the 20:11 point to the upperpart of the final 0:11 Inmarsat Arc closer to Indonesia would be only about 982 miles which would have meant a slower average speed of 245mph over the last 4 hours to a ditching in the warmer smoother friendlier waters south of Java.
If it flew until it ran out of fuel then it is in kangarooland because it had enough fuel to reach there with fuel to spare — but that would defy the sanctity of the Inmarsat Arcs.
So which is it???
From KLA all the way around Sumatra and down to the search area S20E103.5 on the 0:11 final Inmarsat Arc hitting all the arcs along the way is 3010 miles [1734 + 1276].
603 miles further [1734 + 1879] is the Australian coastline at Exmouth S21.93E114.12 — 3613 miles from KLA where it started.
AI early on had the plane flying for 7.5 hours @ 390mph and 3675 miles — thus reaching Australia by their calculations was just barely doable.
MAS said the plane had fuel for 8 hours of flying meaning that reaching Australia was more than doable by hundreds of miles.
So how could it have run out of fuel after 3010 miles when it had enough fuel to fly atleast 3675 miles???
Would slowing the speed down to 320mph as it turned eastward @ 20:11 @ S4.0E94 after 3.5 hours have enabled the plane to fly further longer if the pilot wanted to???
<>7.5 hours @ 390mph and 3675 miles<>
should be: 490mph — 7.5 x 490 = 3675
The southern tip of the 0:11 Inmarsat arc where Inmarsat said the plane would have crashed after running out of fuel is about S32E95.
That’s 1933 miles south of the 20:11 @ S4E94 point and in order to reach it the plane would have had to fly at about 485mph for the last 4 hours in order to reach it by 0:11.
So they were saying that the plane was capable of flying 3667 miles [1784+1933]and another 65 miles [8 minutes until 0:19] for a total of 3732 miles from KLA and then ran out of fuel and crashed way down south there — but then changed their mind to a slower speed as they moved to the new search area.
The coastline of Australia at Exmouth is only 3613 miles from KLA as the MH370 flies. So it could have landed there with 100 miles to spare if the Inmarsat arc is incorrect.
What we know and conclude from what we know:
16:41 departs KLA N2.73E101.71 to Beijing
17:19 the pilot signs off and then ACARS and transponder turned off
17:21 the plane turns after 318 miles at waypoint IGARI N6.94E103.58 and heads west toward Penang Island, where the pilot grew up and regularly visits
The plane goes from 35000ft to maximum altitude for 20 minutes and then down to 12000ft and as low as 5000ft as it flies over Malaysia
Plane flies 229 miles to Penang Island N5.67E100.50 where it drops low enough for cellphone onboard to connect with a cell tower and then turns northwest to a point above Banda Aceh N5.55E95.31 outside Indonesian radar
18:03 Log On request from ground control reaches the plane notifying pilot that ground control was on to him and may even know where he is
At 18:29 and 334 miles from Penang Island and an estimated position N7.5E96, in order to avoid being tracked which he thinks is now may be happening, the pilot turns plane abruptly and probably prematurely SSW, which incidentally is toward the satellite’s geostationary position resulting in a noticeable frequency burst
To this point the plane has flown 881 miles [318 + 229 + 334] over 1:48 hours averaging 489.4mph
At 19:40 after 1:11 hours and 569 miles @ 485mph in that direction the plane would be ~@ S0.5E94
At 20:11 after another 0:31 minutes and 251 miles SSW the plane reaches its most easterly position S4.0E93 — 1701 miles [318 + 229 + 334 + 569 + 251]
This is the point of decision:
1]Proceeding further south is suicide — nothing is there and water is cold and survival after landing a plane in those waters is not likely. 484.5mph for 4 hours and 1938 miles puts the plane on the final Inmarsat Arc at 0:11 and S32E95. Total flight distance 3639 miles [318 + 229 + 334 + 569 + 251 + 1938] averaging 485mph start to finish.
Since the family members say that the pilot was not suicidal he probably did not fly the plane here but just wanted anyone tracking him to think that this is where he was headed to end it all
The claim that the plane ran out of fuel is bogus as it had enough fuel to fly for 7.5 to 8 hours @ 500+mph or 3750+ to 4000+ miles
The claim that the plane ran out of fuel because it flew much faster than first thought at the beginning is bogus since Malaysia and Inmarsat both knew from the start that the plane was covering about 485 miles per hour from the time it turned around and even Inmarsats 0:11 arc is based on that speed being consistent from start to finish
2]Proceeding SE from its 20:11 position the plane had enough fuel to reach western Australia [Exmouth S21.93E114.12] within 4 hours @ 470 mph which is only 1879 miles SE taking him through the search area. Total miles to Australia would have been 3580 miles [318 + 229 + 334 + 569 + 251 + 1879]
3]Proceeding ESE from its 20:11 position the pilot, who spent most of the last year 2013 practicing extreme landings, could ditch the plane in those disputed territorial waters between Indonesia’s territorial waters south of Bandung Indonesia S6.92E107.6 and Australia’s territorial waters just east of Christmas Island S10.46E105.58 knowing that neither country would likely look there in that grey area of disputed waters
The pilot could have reached those warm smoothe friendly deep waters just off Java, let’s say S10.46E107.6, where he would rendezvous with the person he reached or tried to reach by cellphone over Penang Island, at 0:11 after 1094 miles cruising in at 273.5 mph over the final 4 hours and then heading by boat to shore for morning My Thais before anyone in Malaysia even knew that the plane had been hijacked. Total mileage 2795 miles [318 + 229 + 334 + 569 + 251]
The reason that the Malaysians and Aussies don’t want to search there is politics and economics — searching and/or finding the plane there would involve the Indonesians complicating jurisdictional matters and finding the plane’s black boxes too soon before insurance/lawsuits are settled would drive up the cost of those settlements.
<>Total mileage 2795 miles [318 + 229 + 334 + 569 + 251]<>
Total mileage 2795 miles [318 + 229 + 334 + 569 + 251 + 1094]
Things that point to Captain Shah — the pilot:
Age 53 wanting to retire but flying for an airline that is in financial trouble, cutting legacy costs, trimming pilot pay while requiring that they work longer hours, falling value of MAS stock, retirement fund falling in value, rumors of bankruptcy, no other airline wanting to hire 53 year old.
Wanted a change in life. Has girlfriend or several he wants to spend time with but lives in a house with his wife who he has to take care of. Most of his retirement would have to go to provide for her. Did he ever take out insurance when he flew naming her as the beneficiary??? Apparently he didn’t — atleast he didn’t for the last flight. Nevertheless she will still be the beneficiary of a company insurance policy that MAS carries on all its pilots.
He may also have money stashed away in different accounts that no one even his wife knows about. His wife gets the house and insurance payouts and he gets his girlfriends and his cash accounts.
Have the police found the girlfriend[s] that Ibrahims bil implies that the pilot has??? The police shouldnt have to even look for them as they should have come forward by now if they have nothing and no one to hide.
The fact that this occurred just after Anwar Ibrahim’s trial reversal provides him cover — if push comes to shove his defenders can claim that he was suicidal or angry over the Anwar verdict on that day.
For a year he practiced extreme landings on his computer and early this year the computer broke down and he did not seem in any hurry to fix it. Why not??? Because he was now proficient at extreme landings as in water and did not need the computer anymore.
He may not have survived the ditching but that doesn’t mean he didn’t try.
There fixed it --
Inmarsat now saying hotspot is 28S 98.1E.
[Duncan Steel puts it at 36.02S 88.57E — big difference of 780 miles and yet neither of them are even closer]
But let’s look further:
From S4.0E93 @ 20:11 to S28E98.1 @ 24.11 is 1691 miles or
From N7.5E96 [point of estimated turn south @ 18:29] to S28E98.1 is 2455 miles which 5.7 hours @ 430mph
Could it have hit those earlier arcs at that autopilot speed of 430mph — I doubt it.
When added to the 881 miles up to that point the total is 2455 + 881 = 3336 miles.
They are saying the plane ran out of fuel after 3336 miles but it likely had fuel for 4000+ miles.
KLA N2.73E101.71 to Beijing N40.08S116.6 is 2742 miles plus 2 hours of contingency fuel @ 550mph is 1100 + 2742 = 3842 miles.
The plane had atleast another hour of fuel left if it went down where Inmarsat says it did.
By modelling a flight with a constant speed and a constant heading consistent with the plane being flown by autopilot the team found one flight path that lined up with all its data.
We can identify a path that matches exactly with all those frequency measurements and with the timing measurements and lands on the final arc at a particular location, which then gives us a sort of a hotspot area on the final arc where we believe the most likely area is, said Mr Ashton.
So they are assuming:
1]that there was no live pilot at the controls for the last 5.7 hours though there had to have been one before that.
2]that the plane flew a fixed ~430mph the last ~5.7 hours at a fixed altitude and in a fixed direction without change to a location where no survival was possible even though the family said the pilot was not suicidal and the tactics of the hijacking indicate a person who wants to get away with it ... alive not dead
3]that the plane that had been flying at 485mph for 1.8 hours and had enough fuel to fly at that speed for atleast another 6.2 hours now slows down to 430mph for the 5.7 hours — but still runs out of fuel after 7.5 hours???
4]that we can’t read the Inmarsat charts and data which show that the plane turned to the east about 1.7 hours after turning south — which means it wan’t on autopilot or if it had been was taken off and reprogrammed
5]that we can’t remember this:
6]and that that blue Inmarsat arc passes through the waters just south of Bandung West Java Indonesia.
S7.5E96 [point of likely turn south @ 18:29] to the DS location of 36.02S, 88.57E is:
Distance of 3042 miles
From 18:29 to 00:11 is 5.7 hours
Average speed of 533.68 mph.
Average speed of first 1.8 hours was about 485mph
After turning south — why the hurry?????
Wouldn’t he slow down and savour the ride at slower speed conserving fuel???
2014/06/19 AT 17:08
I am sorry, and with all due respect to Duncan and the entire team, I do not believe the plane came down that far south into the Indian ocean. The final statement is very disappointing.
It does not make sense, from a terrorist or even a human ideology point of view.
Unless, unless the cargo on the plane was deemed so sensitive, so secretive that the plane was hijacked simply to have the cargo destroyed and never to be found again, should it fall into the wrong hands.
Why hijack the plane? Why take it that far south? Perhaps your calculations were based on the possibility that a similar plane as MH370 can fly that far south? Perhaps the data released is simply a ruse to keep us all away from the most likely location of the plane closer to Malaysia?
Reply from Duncan Steel
2014/06/19 AT 17:45
Perhaps you have missed the point that the working hypothesis, broadly, is that the autopilot in the absence of any human input flew the aircraft to its terminal point.
And you also seem to have missed the point that the intent of this blog has been use of the evidence that is available, and not things that people believe or not. Peoples beliefs are not evidence.
[Hey Duncan — what is the difference between a “working hypothesis” and a “belief” and where is your evidence that your “working hypothesis” is not just a “belief” —
Your autopilot has the plane travelling 100mph faster than Inmarsat’s autopilot and touching down 700 miles away from each other — So then which autopilot was in control of the plane? — yours or Inmarsat’s — and which hypothesis was working at the time of the touchdown? — yours or Inmarsat’s]
2014/06/19 AT 17:15
Inmarsat seems to me to have made three of the top four mistakes which have significantly impeded the search:
1) failing to account for the location of the satellite,
2) failing to account for the location of the ground station and
3) endorsing the search in the area of the acoustic pings.
(The fourth and most important being Malaysias failure to scramble aircraft.) A little transparency early on may have saved a lot time, money and agony. Plus I suspect early transparency would have been a lot less embarrassing than the obfuscation will be when history of the search is finally written.
I infer that release of the model would show that Inmarsat was misleading us then or is misleading us now.
There fixed it --
Malaysian police investigation names MH370 pilot prime suspect
After conducting 170 interviews, investigators noted strange behaviour by the pilot. He had made no future plans - socially or professionally - and his home flight simulator was programmed with a flight path into the depths of the Southern Ocean before landing the plane on an island with a small runway. The drills were deleted from the computer but specialists were able to retrieve the files. There is also speculation his home life was fraught with difficulties, though this has been denied by his family.
Could that island with a small runway have been Christmas Island just south of Bandung Indonesia???
or New Amsterdam:
3349 miles from the estimated point of turn south —
out of reach but could have been a target destination
Was this the island on his simulator that caused the investigators to draw up the first 450knot [518mph] flight path???
518mph x 5.7 hours = 2952 miles — short by 397 miles but perhaps close enough to try.
It would have had to have flown for another 48 minutes [.8 hours] to reach the island — which would have been doable — and still be down 12 minutes before the next hourly Inmarsat ping.
At 20:11 and about S4.0E93 after 1701 miles [318 + 229 + 334 + 569 + 251] @485mph and 3.5 hours he would have realized that he did not have the fuel to make it to New Amsterdam Island [S37.84E77.55] — another 2362 miles — and broken it off — but to where???
to the east —
In order to have hit the Inmarsat rings on schedule from 20:11 @ S4E93 to New Amsterdam Ile the plane that had been averaging 485mph would have had to travel @ 560mph for the next 3 hours and then 682mph for the last hour in order to hit that last ping ring at New Amsterdam Ile — and that speed is just not possible.
Fastest he travelled was just before that — 830 miles over 1:40 or 498 mph just after turning south.
He angled east to hit those last Inmarsat pings — but how far east???
New Search area [6-26-14] is approximately S32E96 between the red and yellow flight paths on the blue final Inmarsat arc.
It is ~1940 miles SSE from S4E93 — the westernmost point where and when [4:11 or 20:11] the red and yellow flight paths intersect and depart on this NTSB chart.
IOW — the plane had to have been at that point at that time per Inmarsat and the above NTSB chart and logic.
The yellow path leads to New Amsterdam Island where searchers first thought the plane flew — until they realized that it had neither the fuel nor the time to get there.
That projected flight path to New Amsterdam Island is here and shows why it was investigated but then subsequently abandoned — it couldn’t be reached at any speed — autopilot or not:
The new search area S32E96 is 4 hours away from S4E93 — the point of decision — at a fixed ~485 mph away.
485mph is the same speed the plane flew at for the previous 3.5 hours by a live pilot to get to this point — so why would he put it on autopilot now — and to nowhere???
Furthermore and most important it is not possible to have the hit the hourly Inmarsat arcs at a fixed speed of 485mph or any other fixed speed???
There is no way that this plane was on autopilot as the officials claim. A live pilot was at the helm from start to finish making decisions.
The problem with the autopilot claim and the new search area is that the plane would have to fly the last hour at ~700mph in order to get to its search area on time — and ~625mph the hour before — meaning that it flew only ~307mph - ~308mph the 2 hours before that.
New Amsterdam Island may have been the pilot’s first choice, but after after 3.5 hours flying he may have realized that it was unreachable with the fuel he had left — and then gone to his backup plan.
Would that backup plan have been a watery suicide or another place to put the plane down???
If a watery suicide is what his backup plan was then why not just stay on course to New Amsterdam Island, let the plane run out of fuel, and drop into the drink just short of there. Why change course?? Just let it fall into the waters short of New Amsterdam Island. There was/is nothing else reachable in that area — nothing. It’s suicide either way — yellow path, red path, in-between path,....
So what would be the purpose in veering off from that heading unless it was to a place where he felt that he could put the plane down and walk or swim away???
At the point of reckoning at S4E93 at 4:11 where would the pilot have looked to head — right on, a little east to nowhere, a little more east to nowhere, further east to nowhere — or well to the east to Christmas Island and the waters south of Java???