Skip to comments.At the Belmont Stakes, California Chrome Creates Gambling History: A Sure Thing Bet
Posted on 06/06/2014 11:01:39 AM PDT by nickcarraway
Pari-mutuel betting, for better or worse, is in my blood. My maternal grandfather spent every day for 60 years plying the greyhound tracks of South Florida and Massachusetts, and theres enough of him in me to draw me to Belmont Park every time theres a shot at the thoroughbred Triple Crown. Theres also enough of him in me to know that while I cant guarantee that California Chrome will win the 146th Belmont Stakes, becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978, I can guarantee theres a sure thing for anyone who wants to bet the race.
This opportunity comes courtesy of twin forces: history and hype. Some 15 million people will be watching the race tomorrow, and about 14.9 million of them will be pulling for California Chrome. Hundreds of thousands of those will put their money where their heart is, and bet on him.
The result, in betting parlance: an underlay a horse that goes of at odds lower than market forces would ordinarily dictate.
Tomorrows underlay will be one of the biggest of all-time. California Chrome was made the 3-5 favorite by the tracks handicappers yesterday. That means if you bet $5, youll win $3 atop your original wager less than even-money. The Daily Racing Form goes even lower: 2-5.
The wise track mandarins, in other words, are planning to pay off at a rate than roughly translates to a horse with a 66% chance of winning.
Which is, of course, poppycock. Why would a horse any horse be rated more than a 50-50 shot at a race that has seen 11 consecutive aspirants, including some great ones like Spectacular Bid and Big Brown and Smarty Jones,
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
I always bet to show. I don’t win as much, but I rarely lose.
I once read that an amateur bets a hundred in the hope of winning a thousand, while a professional bets a thousand in the hope of winning a hundred.
I’ve never bet on a horse in my 76 years so i’m a guarnteed winner!
There is a difference between 5 to 3 and 5 for 3.
Looking for a price here....will go with commanding curve. Closed very nice at KD after a very wide and boxed in ride most of race. May not win but I just cannot abide betting a 3-5, which may go off at 2-5, shot. So, Curve and Chrome and Curlin for a 3 horse box with win money on curve.
I’m no pro, but I used to enjoy going to the track when I was younger. Since I didn’t know much about horses, developed my own system. I would buy a racing form and a local paper and look at who the experts recommended. What I looked for was not necessarily the winner, but a horse that all the experts seemed to think would at least show (3rd place). I would take 50 bucks for 10 races, planning on making a 5 dollar bet on each. I might get back 7-10 dollars on average if they showed. Then I would add half of that to the bet on the next race, and pocket the other half. On a good night I might double or triple my money, on a bad night I might lose half. Most often I would make enough to pay for some food and beer, and it was fun.
Which is why my wallet stays in the pocket.
I have absolutely NO IDEA what you are talking about.
Of course there is! I know that. But that is not what my post was about.
From the article:
"Tomorrows underlay will be one of the biggest of all-time. California Chrome was made the 3-5 favorite by the tracks handicappers yesterday. That means if you bet $5, youll win $3 atop your original wager less than even-money."
That's what I was mentioning in my post.
Had a similar system when I was in collage at Alabama. Betting dogs. My total “allowance” was 50 bucks that I got on Friday when I came home. If I was careful I’d have 30 or so come Monday night. My roommate and I would drive to Greentrack in Eutaw. That’s how I made my spending money for the week. Or not. Some weeks beans and rice till Friday. But mostly I did pretty well.
And yea, I did work. Holidays and summers. Course this was in ‘79 and ‘80. 30 bucks went a lot further then. Although not much further..........
If I knew what I was doing with horse betting, I would not be writing about it!
Guy told me a story long ago about a bookmaker who used to hang at his his dad’s speakeasy. One day a long shot won and it had been bet by everyone in the neighborhood because of its name! Anyway, he lost almost 20K on that day and had to borrow from the loan sharks to pay off. He was not concerned because he was certain that all the winners would be back betting much more because they figured they could not lose. Within a month, he had the loan sharks paid off and was ahead almost 20K because all the betters did exactly what he figured they would. My buddy told me, he has never met anyone who ever beat the horses over a long period of time and he added, if “you are smart, you will not try either”.
Bet a thousand to win a hundred? Must be government employes.
Secretariat went off at 1-9...Because NY State parimutual rules mandate that a winning ticket must pay at least $2.20 for each $2 payout, the track was going to lose millions. That's because the state takes a big bite out of the parimutual pool before it's split up among the winners.
However, it turned out that the race was among the most profitable ever for the track. That's because some 90% of all $2 WIN tickets were never cashed...people kept them as souvenirs....you can still find them listed on E-Bay
Is that what Adam Smith would call the, “Invisible Hand?”
10% return in a day is considered a good investment.
Soon followed by the greatest tragedy in racing...the match race against Riva Ridge.
The greatest tragedy in racing was Ruffian vs Foolish Pleasure.