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World War One anniversary: what if Archduke Franz Ferdinand had lived?
Telegraph UK ^ | june 27, 2014 | Tim Stanley and Olivia Bolton

Posted on 06/28/2014 9:07:15 AM PDT by DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

was like something from a film - what started as a farce ended as a tragedy. When Archduke Franz Ferdinand arrived in Sarajevo on June 28 1914, someone threw a bomb at him but it missed.

Gavrilo Princip was meant to shoot him there and then but couldn’t get a clear shot. So he went to sulk in a café instead.

It was only when Ferdinand’s car later went down the same street by the same café and got stuck in the road - that Princip took his chance and shot the Archduke dead.

But what if Princip had missed? Would 16 million people have survived instead of perishing in the trenches in the Great War?

(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: archdukeferdinand; dfthinginthebalkans; worldwar1; worldwarone; ww1worldwari; wwi
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Video with historian discussing the topic at the link


1 posted on 06/28/2014 9:07:15 AM PDT by DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

OH darn I missed copying and pasting the very first word in the paragraph. The “It”. Sorry folks. Lol


2 posted on 06/28/2014 9:08:02 AM PDT by DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

His death was an excuse for war, not the cause. If it was not this, it would have been something else.

Those that led the world into WWI had no concept of what was at stake and they (and their nations) paid a great price for their arrogance.


3 posted on 06/28/2014 9:12:34 AM PDT by CIB-173RDABN (I do not doubt that our climate changes. I only doubt that anything man does has any effect.)
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To: CIB-173RDABN

Exactly. The Europe was a powder keg just waiting for a spark to set it off. If it wasn’t Franz’s death, it would have been something else sooner or later


4 posted on 06/28/2014 9:14:50 AM PDT by DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

Even if Princip had missed entirely and done nothing more than gotten himself beaten to a pulp as a result, Europe was a powder keg in 1914 and Franz Ferdinand’s assassination was simply the spark the explosion had been looking for.

History most likely would have turned out somewhat differently; perhaps no Bolshevik Revolution if the Germans hadn’t decided to smuggle Lenin into Russia to stir things up, but in any event an all-out European war was probably inevitable. Everyone wanted it.


5 posted on 06/28/2014 9:18:39 AM PDT by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

Germany was so prepared for war with France they would have instigated something .....


6 posted on 06/28/2014 9:18:55 AM PDT by SkyDancer (If you don't read the newspapers you are uninformed. If you do read newspapers you are misinformed)
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To: SkyDancer

I know right. This whole assassination thing was just the perfect excuse.


7 posted on 06/28/2014 9:22:02 AM PDT by DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis
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To: CIB-173RDABN

Sadly you are right. Europe at their cultural peak, was primed for a needless destructive war.


8 posted on 06/28/2014 9:23:23 AM PDT by allendale
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

What if Spartacus had had a Piper Cub?


9 posted on 06/28/2014 9:28:52 AM PDT by keat
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

Like nearly everyone else on this thread I think the nations of
Europe were all so prepared for war by 1914 that any number of
incidents would have served as a trip wire.


10 posted on 06/28/2014 9:32:10 AM PDT by Sivad (NorCal red turf)
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

I agree!The Austro-Hungarian Empire was coming apart at the seams!!The assassination was just an”EXCUSE”!!!!!!!!


11 posted on 06/28/2014 9:32:27 AM PDT by bandleader
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis
The painting shows him using a revolver but he actually used one of these:


12 posted on 06/28/2014 9:34:36 AM PDT by Jeff Chandler (Conservatism is the political disposition of grown-ups.)
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis
If Hitler had died during WWI, would there have been a WWII?

Where did I put my time machine?

13 posted on 06/28/2014 9:35:01 AM PDT by Slyfox (When progressives ignore moral parameters, they also lose the natural gift of common sense.)
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

It would have still happened. Troops were already massed by idiot rulers for a little fun adventure. Something else would have lit the fuse.


14 posted on 06/28/2014 9:36:50 AM PDT by Organic Panic
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To: Jeff Chandler

Of course sensational paintings like that never really go in for accuracy. lol. Nice pic. Would love to try shooting that one.


15 posted on 06/28/2014 9:39:20 AM PDT by DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis
I always think of the car when it's about the Archduke.

I've had bad cars before, but not that bad.

Curses! Archduke Franz Ferdinand and His Astounding Death Car-Was the man whose assassination began World War I riding in a car destined to bring death to a series of owners?

16 posted on 06/28/2014 9:40:08 AM PDT by Theoria (End Socialism : No more GOP and Dem candidates)
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To: Slyfox
Hitler (far right) in WWI.
17 posted on 06/28/2014 9:40:47 AM PDT by DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis
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To: allendale

And, unknowingly, it set the wheels in motion for WWII which destroyed Europe’s manhood and Jewry, created the UN and introduced the Cold War.

The West thought it won WWII but it was a pyrrhic victory that awoke sinister Islam.


18 posted on 06/28/2014 9:42:50 AM PDT by 353FMG
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To: Theoria

I'm the car of doom! *cackle rumble cackle* Wanna go for a ride in me????? It will be your last! *evil laugh*

19 posted on 06/28/2014 9:43:55 AM PDT by DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

“that Princip took his chance and shot the Archduke dead.”

Really? Probably not.

Thick heavy coat, rather anemic round, his wife shot in the arm, reports of their improvement - followed by the death of both.

Somebody needed and excuse and made SURE they had one.


20 posted on 06/28/2014 9:45:15 AM PDT by I cannot think of a name (\w)
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To: CIB-173RDABN
There are many reasons why there could have been a war, no matter whether the assassination occurred or not, but the fact is that, absent the assassination, the specific chain of event that did lead to war would not have taken place. You can have tinder and oily rags everywhere and say in hindsight that a fire was inevitable, but there still has to be a spark, and that's a matter of pure chance. The cold war kept the world on edge of nuclear annihilation for fifty years, and many today say that fate is inevitable, but yet it hasn't happened.
21 posted on 06/28/2014 9:47:04 AM PDT by PUGACHEV
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

If he had lived, the Orthodox Serbs would still feel the heat from the German-Austrian empire. They would have plead to Orthodox Mother Russia for protection, Russia would have mobilized and Germany would have declared war on Russia.

The war would still have been on.


22 posted on 06/28/2014 9:47:27 AM PDT by Ruy Dias de Bivar (Sometimes you need more than seven rounds, Much more.)
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

The key element in what caused a Serbian nationalist to kill Ferdinand (the crown prince of the Austro-Hungarian empire) was the annexing of Bosnia-Herzegovina by the Austro-Hungarians (through their crafty foreign minister doing a fake deal with the Russian foreign minister, who was an machinating idiot who worked for an equally childish weak Tsar Nicholas II). The Russian foreign minister had a chat with the Prince of Wales in 1908, and tried to pull off the free access to the Black Sea through the Dardanelles (a long time Russian goal since the Ottoman Turks had overrun Europe capturing and controlling the Dardanelles for more than 400 years) from the Turks.

This all happened when England’s Edward VII mades a visit to Russia to settle an alliance with Russia. The Russian Foreign Minister Alexander Izvolsky, had his sights set as a careerist (for freedom for what remained of the navy after the Battle of Port Arthur destroyed their Pacific fleet by the Japs in 1905). All this because he thought the Turks were weakly in control of Bosnia-HG. Rather than getting peace in the Balkans, he was out manoeuvred by Austrian Foreign Minister Alois Lexa von Aehrenthal when Austria annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina. Serbia didn’t like this at all and the nationalists, thinking they had the backing of the Russians (which they assumed they would from the Christian Orthodox world)in the next 5 years rose up with violence against Bosnians/HGs and eventually caused WWI by killing the heir. Russia(and ally France) had war declared on them, by Germany and Austro-Hungary.

This is the kind of crap going on in the background with obamaumao and Syria (still trying to pay for al-Qaeda support with US money against Iranian supported Assad— truly amazing, and McCain is sing that tune too— Thanks to Valerie (black-Iranian)Jarrett’s manipulation to further bog us in useless intrigue... against... Putin.


23 posted on 06/28/2014 9:53:18 AM PDT by John S Mosby (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: Slyfox
If you could go back to 1938, and had ONE CHANCE, using a bomb, to kill Hitler when he was surrounded with children, would you do it?

If you did, he today would be known as one of the greatest unifiers of Germany until he was “murdered” in 1938.

24 posted on 06/28/2014 9:53:34 AM PDT by Ruy Dias de Bivar (Sometimes you need more than seven rounds, Much more.)
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

My theory is that, if the Archduke had LIVED, they would have found something else to make war over. It’s human nature, and the political map of the world (The aging empires, interbreeding of the royals, the rise of communism, etc)was just itchin’ to blow up over something.

JMO...


25 posted on 06/28/2014 9:54:00 AM PDT by left that other site (You shall know the Truth, and The Truth Shall Set You Free.)
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

The key element in what caused a Serbian nationalist to kill Ferdinand (the crown prince of the Austro-Hungarian empire) was the annexing of Bosnia-Herzegovina by the Austro-Hungarians (through their crafty foreign minister doing a fake deal with the Russian foreign minister, who was an machinating idiot who worked for an equally childish weak Tsar Nicholas II). The Russian foreign minister had a chat with the Prince of Wales in 1908, and tried to pull off the free access to the Black Sea through the Dardanelles (a long time Russian goal since the Ottoman Turks had overrun Europe capturing and controlling the Dardanelles for more than 400 years) from the Turks.

This all happened when England’s Edward VII mades a visit to Russia to settle an alliance with Russia. The Russian Foreign Minister Alexander Izvolsky, had his sights set as a careerist (for freedom for what remained of the navy after the Battle of Port Arthur destroyed their Pacific fleet by the Japs in 1905). All this because he thought the Turks were weakly in control of Bosnia-HG. Rather than getting peace in the Balkans, he was out manoeuvred by Austrian Foreign Minister Alois Lexa von Aehrenthal when Austria annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina. Serbia didn’t like this at all and the nationalists, thinking they had the backing of the Russians (which they assumed they would from the Christian Orthodox world)in the next 5 years rose up with violence against Bosnians/HGs and eventually caused WWI by killing the heir. Russia(and ally France) had war declared on them, by Germany and Austro-Hungary.

This is the kind of crap going on in the background with obamaumao and Syria (still trying to pay for al-Qaeda support with US money against Iranian supported Assad— truly amazing, and McCain is sing that tune too— Thanks to Valerie (black-Iranian)Jarrett’s manipulation to further bog us in useless intrigue... against... Putin.


26 posted on 06/28/2014 9:54:29 AM PDT by John S Mosby (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: Ruy Dias de Bivar

Good point; even an unsuccessful assassination attempt by Princip - let’s say he only lightly wounded the Archduke - would still have the Austro-Hungarian Empire breathing down the neck of the Serbs, who in turn would’ve appealed to Russia for help; Austro-Hungary mobilizes, then Russia, then Germany, and we have still the exact same scenario.

At that unfortunate point in history, probably ANYTHING would have served as pretext for war. Hell, say the Archduke eats some bad goulash and gets Montezuma’s Revenge or food poisoning; the Austro-Hungarians then maintain it was attempted assassination by arsenic or something and the same scenario unfolds.


27 posted on 06/28/2014 9:58:04 AM PDT by AnAmericanAbroad (It's all bread and circuses for the future prey of the Morlocks.)
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

Highly recommend the BBC series “Fall of Eagles” if you have 13 plus hours to watch each episode. Covers the destruction of the 3 Eagles, Germany, Austro-Hungary and Tsarist Russia— and includes the fact that the Germans financed Lenin to destroy the Tsarist government. The Bolshevik revolution was financed by Germany (and...uh certain well known US and German bankers with certain... uh, interests— without being particularly bigoted to the core group of revolutionists and the failure of the useful idiot Socialists).

To think that the current Russian govt. seeks to restore the old Stalinist borders and the old CCCP provinces is really quite frightening and should be to the Balkans, Lithuania, Poland and any former “province”. And what is the “flexibility” promised by obamaumao to Medvedev, Putin’s butt boy? Whose butt boy is obamaumao (for that matter whose is he NOT one to? sic).


28 posted on 06/28/2014 9:59:54 AM PDT by John S Mosby (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

look at the dog....he knew


29 posted on 06/28/2014 10:01:33 AM PDT by tophat9000 (An Eye for an Eye, a Word for a Word...nothing more)
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To: John S Mosby

oops. Forgot the link. The series is excellent.
The blowback to the Germans post WWI led to Hitler who accepted all socialists, communists whatever to get power then killed off the commies.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUCjbg_fhZA


30 posted on 06/28/2014 10:01:51 AM PDT by John S Mosby (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis
In that painting there, look at the driver leaning back. Rather mildly perturbed looking fellow.

"I say then, whats going on back here? Rather a bully bit of nonsense there Duke, what what?"

31 posted on 06/28/2014 10:03:23 AM PDT by Wyrd bi ful ard (Asperges me, Domine, hyssopo et mundabor, Lavabis me, et super nivem dealbabor.)
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To: tophat9000

You know, there is a tv series on hitler that shows him
beating his pet dog to death after the dog humiliates him in front of his kamraden— I think the little pup peed on his leg in their full view. Really a sick scene... setting up his
further psychoses.

In color films of him with his Alsatian, the dog cowers and crawls to him with ears flat, and whimpering. Such a nice man this Socialist.


32 posted on 06/28/2014 10:07:35 AM PDT by John S Mosby (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis
A great book was written a few years ago on the very subject:

Archduke Franz Ferdinand Lives!: A World without World War I

It's available on Amazon, and Amazon Kindle for $12. I read it, but think the writer romantizes the idea that everything would have been perfect with no assassination... But at 258 pages, it covered most everything.

Another great read is In Other Trenches: Alternate Outcomes of the First World War, only available on Kindle but only $4.00.

Finally, there is a discussion forum on alternative history with some really exceptional posters (although some tend to be liberal) here.

33 posted on 06/28/2014 10:10:11 AM PDT by Alas Babylon!
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To: allendale

To maintain the monarchies, war between them to beat down the
populist sentiment for parliaments and legislatures they would not tolerate. Quite something, and the countries being led by fossilized idiots fighting the “last” war. Would that the US had not gotten into this one or, for that matter having done so— setting up British manipulation to get us into WWII (the “special relationship”)for all the failed results of WWI. A worldwide bloodbath in the Great Game.
Shuffling the cards on the quarterdeck even now for the next “phase” of the comintern vs. what remains of the non-world socialist peoples.


34 posted on 06/28/2014 10:12:48 AM PDT by John S Mosby (Sic Semper Tyrannis)
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To: John S Mosby
I would like to add my hearty recommendation to watch the BBC series “Fall of Eagles.” It is pretty accurate historically and if you ignore the fact that all the actors have English accents you will truly enjoy the series. It is available on Youtube and you can download all of it and watch it at your convenience. It also deals with the stupid Russian foreign minister and how he got bamboozled by the Austrians.
35 posted on 06/28/2014 10:13:30 AM PDT by gbscott1954 (Please come back Sarah!!!)
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To: AnAmericanAbroad

Righto. The Austrian/Hungarians saw Serbia, probably accurately, as a mortal threat to the peace of their empire.

So they wanted to destroy Serbia in a short, victorious war. This of course dragged in everybody else, and pretty shortly the Austrian/Serbian issues was forgotten by everybody except those directly involved.

But even with the massive predominance of the Austrian forces relative to those of Serbia, Austria was repeatedly defeated till big brother Germany rode to her rescue in late 1915, assisted by a surprise attack by Bulgaria.


36 posted on 06/28/2014 10:14:28 AM PDT by Sherman Logan (Perception wins all the battles. Reality wins all the wars.)
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

One lesson learned from the assassination was to never ride in an open convertible.

Oh, wait...


37 posted on 06/28/2014 10:14:52 AM PDT by Larry Lucido
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To: keat
What if Spartacus had had a Piper Cub?

Would have made no difference, Thracians couldn't fly, there were no air to ground ordnance, no comms. Crassus and Pompey crush the slave revolt still.

38 posted on 06/28/2014 10:15:06 AM PDT by xone
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To: CIB-173RDABN
You are completely correct.

Even if the Archduke escaped the assassination attempt, we were headed for war by latest 1916 because all the major powers in Europe were furiously arming up to protect their colonial interests and all it took was another spark to trigger off the war. Remember, the Alsace-Lorraine region of France was a disputed area that the Germans wanted, and that dispute was enough to get France and Germany into a shooting war sooner or later.

39 posted on 06/28/2014 10:18:00 AM PDT by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: RayChuang88
Remember, the Alsace-Lorraine region of France was a disputed area that the Germans wanted

Actually, in 1914 Alsace-Lorraine was part of the German Empire, the Germans having taken it away from France in the 1870 war.

IOW, it was a German region the French wanted back.

They got it back after WWI, lost it from 1940 to 45, and have kept it since.

The area had alternated from German (to the extent that term had any meaning) to French control in previous centuries too.

40 posted on 06/28/2014 10:38:21 AM PDT by Sherman Logan (Perception wins all the battles. Reality wins all the wars.)
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To: Ruy Dias de Bivar
I'd set my time machine to WWI, way before 1938, and find Adolph in the midst of battle and lob him a good one with his name on it.

That way millions of people would have been spared their lives.

41 posted on 06/28/2014 11:01:50 AM PDT by Slyfox (When progressives ignore moral parameters, they also lose the natural gift of common sense.)
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

War would probably have been delayed. The archduke was apparently very opposed to provoking a war and had he survived, would have used his influence to prevent it. Certainly when he would have succeeded the throne in 1916 he would have done his best to keep Austria out of it. However, Germany was positively spoiling for a fight. They knew France wanted Alsace Lorraine back, and they knew it was only a matter of time before a rapidly industrialising Russia caught up with and then surpassed Germany. Moltke and the Kaiser wanted this war to happen sooner rather than later whilst they perceived that Germany still had the advantage.


42 posted on 06/28/2014 11:11:56 AM PDT by sinsofsolarempirefan
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To: xone
Would have made no difference

With all due respect, I'm not sure you are giving proper consideration to the power of good recon.

Notwithstanding the Thracian's poor flying skills, the Cub is a fairly easy aircraft for beginners to pilot. That said, a few quick sorties on the morning of the engagement might have revealed Mummius' flanking movement and changed the course of the battle.

Even if the Thracians were routed and driven southward, Crassus' delay in pursuit would have given Spartacus ample time to ferry his troops, one by one on the plane, to Sicily where they could have regrouped and carried on their raids from the safety of the island.

In short, the war would have certainly lasted many more months.

43 posted on 06/28/2014 11:27:42 AM PDT by keat
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To: I cannot think of a name

Franz Ferdinand shot in neck - bullet severed juglar vein
bled to death

Wife Sophie Von Chotek-Hapsburg shot in stomach


44 posted on 06/28/2014 11:32:19 AM PDT by njslim (T)
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

ASSASSINATION OF AUSTRIAN ARCHDUKE FERDINAND SET OFF 'THE MONTH THAT CHANGED THE WORLD'


On June 28, 1914, Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife, Sophie, were murdered by Serbian nationalist Gavrilo Princip in Sarajevo. The assassination set off a chain of events that led to the outbreak of the First World War in Europe and affirmed famed German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck’s prediction that the next great war would start because of some “foolish thing in the Balkans.”

The chessboard diplomacy that followed in the next month before hostilities broke out is brilliantly chronicled by military historian Gordon Martel in his book, The Month That Changed the World: July 1914. Focusing on the decisions of heads of state and ambassadors, as well as military men of the European countries involved, Martel posits that war was not inevitable as many historians have claimed.



45 posted on 06/28/2014 11:55:26 AM PDT by Bratch
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...

This UK twerp is merely reiterating the mantra that the individual doesn’t matter, and (also part of the commie line) that there’s inevitability built right in to history.

A five year delay could have meant no war; the royal house in Germany was teetering (perhaps due to the crazy genes passed down from the British royals) earlier in the 20th c. The czar of Russia (another descendant) was (like his grandfather) facing the rise of political radicals, and his empire still occupied Finland and Poland, so continued apparent political stability might be seen as unlikely.

The biggest single cause was the sidelining and death of Otto von Bismarck, who’d built a masterpiece of a treaty system that kept eastern European powers at peace with each other while cooperating in the dismantling of the Ottoman Empire in Europe, and diplomatically isolating the military giant in western Europe — France.

But despite that, Wilhelm II pushed diplomatically for the Berlin to Baghdad railroad, which ran right through Turkish territory and ruffled the feathers of the czar and the UK. Despite that, Russia agreed, and a few years later, right on the eve of the Great War, so did the UK.

The rail wasn’t completed until 1940.


46 posted on 06/28/2014 11:56:02 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: keat

No fuel, no flight.


47 posted on 06/28/2014 11:59:30 AM PDT by xone
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To: Jeff Chandler

Jeff:

Yep. Fabrique National, chambered in .38. My father had the identical gun in .32, which he used for espionage work after WWII. Said he always liked it because it was reliable, small and thin (no lump under a suit jacket), and no sights (so it didn’t snag in the holster or pocket).

Proves once again that John Moses Browning, who designed it (like most everything else), was one of the most consequential figures of the last century.


48 posted on 06/28/2014 12:17:27 PM PDT by giant sable
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To: giant sable
chambered in .38

.380 ACP. So if anyone tells you that .380 is under-powered, tell him to talk to Franz Ferdinand.

49 posted on 06/28/2014 12:23:41 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (Conservatism is the political disposition of grown-ups.)
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To: DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis

Actually they both survived the assassination attempt, recovered and were found living on the Cote Azure in 1922. WW1 was a mistake.


50 posted on 06/28/2014 12:43:24 PM PDT by SkyDancer (If you don't read the newspapers you are uninformed. If you do read newspapers you are misinformed)
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