World War One anniversary: what if Archduke Franz Ferdinand had lived?

Telegraph UK ^ | june 27, 2014 | Tim Stanley and Olivia Bolton

[DeoVindiceSicSemperTyrannis]

was like something from a film - what started as a farce ended as a tragedy. When Archduke Franz Ferdinand arrived in Sarajevo on June 28 1914, someone threw a bomb at him but it missed.

Gavrilo Princip was meant to shoot him there and then but couldn’t get a clear shot. So he went to sulk in a café instead.

It was only when Ferdinand’s car later went down the same street by the same café and got stuck in the road - that Princip took his chance and shot the Archduke dead.

But what if Princip had missed? Would 16 million people have survived instead of perishing in the trenches in the Great War?

[PUGACHEV]

There are many reasons why there could have been a war, no matter whether the assassination occurred or not, but the fact is that, absent the assassination, the specific chain of event that did lead to war would not have taken place. You can have tinder and oily rags everywhere and say in hindsight that a fire was inevitable, but there still has to be a spark, and that's a matter of pure chance. The cold war kept the world on edge of nuclear annihilation for fifty years, and many today say that fate is inevitable, but yet it hasn't happened.

[Ruy Dias de Bivar]

If he had lived, the Orthodox Serbs would still feel the heat from the German-Austrian empire. They would have plead to Orthodox Mother Russia for protection, Russia would have mobilized and Germany would have declared war on Russia.

The war would still have been on.

[John S Mosby]

The key element in what caused a Serbian nationalist to kill Ferdinand (the crown prince of the Austro-Hungarian empire) was the annexing of Bosnia-Herzegovina by the Austro-Hungarians (through their crafty foreign minister doing a fake deal with the Russian foreign minister, who was an machinating idiot who worked for an equally childish weak Tsar Nicholas II). The Russian foreign minister had a chat with the Prince of Wales in 1908, and tried to pull off the free access to the Black Sea through the Dardanelles (a long time Russian goal since the Ottoman Turks had overrun Europe capturing and controlling the Dardanelles for more than 400 years) from the Turks.

This all happened when England’s Edward VII mades a visit to Russia to settle an alliance with Russia. The Russian Foreign Minister Alexander Izvolsky, had his sights set as a careerist (for freedom for what remained of the navy after the Battle of Port Arthur destroyed their Pacific fleet by the Japs in 1905). All this because he thought the Turks were weakly in control of Bosnia-HG. Rather than getting peace in the Balkans, he was out manoeuvred by Austrian Foreign Minister Alois Lexa von Aehrenthal when Austria annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina. Serbia didn’t like this at all and the nationalists, thinking they had the backing of the Russians (which they assumed they would from the Christian Orthodox world)in the next 5 years rose up with violence against Bosnians/HGs and eventually caused WWI by killing the heir. Russia(and ally France) had war declared on them, by Germany and Austro-Hungary.

This is the kind of crap going on in the background with obamaumao and Syria (still trying to pay for al-Qaeda support with US money against Iranian supported Assad— truly amazing, and McCain is sing that tune too— Thanks to Valerie (black-Iranian)Jarrett’s manipulation to further bog us in useless intrigue... against... Putin.

[Ruy Dias de Bivar]

If you could go back to 1938, and had ONE CHANCE, using a bomb, to kill Hitler when he was surrounded with children, would you do it?

If you did, he today would be known as one of the greatest unifiers of Germany until he was “murdered” in 1938.

[left that other site]

My theory is that, if the Archduke had LIVED, they would have found something else to make war over. It’s human nature, and the political map of the world (The aging empires, interbreeding of the royals, the rise of communism, etc)was just itchin’ to blow up over something.

JMO...

[John S Mosby]

The key element in what caused a Serbian nationalist to kill Ferdinand (the crown prince of the Austro-Hungarian empire) was the annexing of Bosnia-Herzegovina by the Austro-Hungarians (through their crafty foreign minister doing a fake deal with the Russian foreign minister, who was an machinating idiot who worked for an equally childish weak Tsar Nicholas II). The Russian foreign minister had a chat with the Prince of Wales in 1908, and tried to pull off the free access to the Black Sea through the Dardanelles (a long time Russian goal since the Ottoman Turks had overrun Europe capturing and controlling the Dardanelles for more than 400 years) from the Turks.

This all happened when England’s Edward VII mades a visit to Russia to settle an alliance with Russia. The Russian Foreign Minister Alexander Izvolsky, had his sights set as a careerist (for freedom for what remained of the navy after the Battle of Port Arthur destroyed their Pacific fleet by the Japs in 1905). All this because he thought the Turks were weakly in control of Bosnia-HG. Rather than getting peace in the Balkans, he was out manoeuvred by Austrian Foreign Minister Alois Lexa von Aehrenthal when Austria annexed Bosnia and Herzegovina. Serbia didn’t like this at all and the nationalists, thinking they had the backing of the Russians (which they assumed they would from the Christian Orthodox world)in the next 5 years rose up with violence against Bosnians/HGs and eventually caused WWI by killing the heir. Russia(and ally France) had war declared on them, by Germany and Austro-Hungary.

This is the kind of crap going on in the background with obamaumao and Syria (still trying to pay for al-Qaeda support with US money against Iranian supported Assad— truly amazing, and McCain is sing that tune too— Thanks to Valerie (black-Iranian)Jarrett’s manipulation to further bog us in useless intrigue... against... Putin.

[AnAmericanAbroad]

Good point; even an unsuccessful assassination attempt by Princip - let’s say he only lightly wounded the Archduke - would still have the Austro-Hungarian Empire breathing down the neck of the Serbs, who in turn would’ve appealed to Russia for help; Austro-Hungary mobilizes, then Russia, then Germany, and we have still the exact same scenario.

At that unfortunate point in history, probably ANYTHING would have served as pretext for war. Hell, say the Archduke eats some bad goulash and gets Montezuma’s Revenge or food poisoning; the Austro-Hungarians then maintain it was attempted assassination by arsenic or something and the same scenario unfolds.

[John S Mosby]

Highly recommend the BBC series “Fall of Eagles” if you have 13 plus hours to watch each episode. Covers the destruction of the 3 Eagles, Germany, Austro-Hungary and Tsarist Russia— and includes the fact that the Germans financed Lenin to destroy the Tsarist government. The Bolshevik revolution was financed by Germany (and...uh certain well known US and German bankers with certain... uh, interests— without being particularly bigoted to the core group of revolutionists and the failure of the useful idiot Socialists).

To think that the current Russian govt. seeks to restore the old Stalinist borders and the old CCCP provinces is really quite frightening and should be to the Balkans, Lithuania, Poland and any former “province”. And what is the “flexibility” promised by obamaumao to Medvedev, Putin’s butt boy? Whose butt boy is obamaumao (for that matter whose is he NOT one to? sic).

[tophat9000]

look at the dog....he knew

[John S Mosby]

oops. Forgot the link. The series is excellent.
The blowback to the Germans post WWI led to Hitler who accepted all socialists, communists whatever to get power then killed off the commies.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUCjbg_fhZA

[Wyrd bið ful aræd]

In that painting there, look at the driver leaning back. Rather mildly perturbed looking fellow.

"I say then, whats going on back here? Rather a bully bit of nonsense there Duke, what what?"

[John S Mosby]

You know, there is a tv series on hitler that shows him
beating his pet dog to death after the dog humiliates him in front of his kamraden— I think the little pup peed on his leg in their full view. Really a sick scene... setting up his
further psychoses.

In color films of him with his Alsatian, the dog cowers and crawls to him with ears flat, and whimpering. Such a nice man this Socialist.

[Alas Babylon!]

A great book was written a few years ago on the very subject:

Archduke Franz Ferdinand Lives!: A World without World War I

It's available on Amazon, and Amazon Kindle for $12. I read it, but think the writer romantizes the idea that everything would have been perfect with no assassination... But at 258 pages, it covered most everything.

Another great read is In Other Trenches: Alternate Outcomes of the First World War, only available on Kindle but only $4.00.

Finally, there is a discussion forum on alternative history with some really exceptional posters (although some tend to be liberal) here.

[John S Mosby]

To maintain the monarchies, war between them to beat down the
populist sentiment for parliaments and legislatures they would not tolerate. Quite something, and the countries being led by fossilized idiots fighting the “last” war. Would that the US had not gotten into this one or, for that matter having done so— setting up British manipulation to get us into WWII (the “special relationship”)for all the failed results of WWI. A worldwide bloodbath in the Great Game.
Shuffling the cards on the quarterdeck even now for the next “phase” of the comintern vs. what remains of the non-world socialist peoples.

[gbscott1954]

I would like to add my hearty recommendation to watch the BBC series “Fall of Eagles.” It is pretty accurate historically and if you ignore the fact that all the actors have English accents you will truly enjoy the series. It is available on Youtube and you can download all of it and watch it at your convenience. It also deals with the stupid Russian foreign minister and how he got bamboozled by the Austrians.

[Sherman Logan]

Righto. The Austrian/Hungarians saw Serbia, probably accurately, as a mortal threat to the peace of their empire.

So they wanted to destroy Serbia in a short, victorious war. This of course dragged in everybody else, and pretty shortly the Austrian/Serbian issues was forgotten by everybody except those directly involved.

But even with the massive predominance of the Austrian forces relative to those of Serbia, Austria was repeatedly defeated till big brother Germany rode to her rescue in late 1915, assisted by a surprise attack by Bulgaria.

[Larry Lucido]

One lesson learned from the assassination was to never ride in an open convertible.

Oh, wait...

[xone]

What if Spartacus had had a Piper Cub?

Would have made no difference, Thracians couldn't fly, there were no air to ground ordnance, no comms. Crassus and Pompey crush the slave revolt still.

[RayChuang88]

You are completely correct.

Even if the Archduke escaped the assassination attempt, we were headed for war by latest 1916 because all the major powers in Europe were furiously arming up to protect their colonial interests and all it took was another spark to trigger off the war. Remember, the Alsace-Lorraine region of France was a disputed area that the Germans wanted, and that dispute was enough to get France and Germany into a shooting war sooner or later.

[Sherman Logan]

Remember, the Alsace-Lorraine region of France was a disputed area that the Germans wanted

Actually, in 1914 Alsace-Lorraine was part of the German Empire, the Germans having taken it away from France in the 1870 war.

IOW, it was a German region the French wanted back.

They got it back after WWI, lost it from 1940 to 45, and have kept it since.

The area had alternated from German (to the extent that term had any meaning) to French control in previous centuries too.