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Lying with Statistics: The National Climate Assessment Falsely Hypes Ice Loss ...
wattsupwiththat.com ^ | July 6, 2014 | by Guest Blogger

Posted on 07/06/2014 7:41:36 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

Lying with Statistics: The National Climate Assessment Falsely Hypes Ice Loss in Greenland and Antarctica

Posted on

by E. Calvin Beisner and J.C. Keister

How fast are Greenland and Antarctica losing ice?

If you trust the National Climate Assessment (NCA), you’ll think, “Very fast!” And that’s intentional. The aim is to provoke fear so the American public will support the Obama administration’s aim to spend \$Trillions fighting global warming.

Here’s how the NCA (in Appendix 4, FAQ-L) depicts the rate of loss from the ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica:

Pretty steep declines, right? Downright scary.

But if there’s any way to depict trends guaranteed to be misleading, it’s depicting them in raw numbers without the context of proportion. The NCA should either have depicted the ice loss as percent—with graphs showing the whole span from 0 to 100—or as gigatons but spanning from 0 to the highest totals for the two locations.

What would the resulting graphs look like? To know that, you have to know the total mass of ice in both Greenland and Antarctica and the annual rate of loss. Neither is known very precisely, but working from widely accepted figures we ran the calculations. The results?

Greenland is losing about 0.1% of its ice per decade—that is, about 0.01% per year. At that rate, it will take a century for it to lose 1%.

Antarctica is losing about 0.0045% of its ice per decade—about 4.5/10,000ths of a percent per year. At that rate, it will take about 2,200 years for it to lose 1%.

Oh—and what would the graphs look like if drawn proportionally? Here you go:

No, the trend lines aren’t missing. They’re the red lines up at the 100% level of the graphs. Their slopes are so shallow that Greenland’s is barely perceptible—and Antarctica’s, not at all.

And the effect on sea level? Combined, about 1 millimeter per year—or about 3.3 inches by the end of this century.

Not quite so scared now?

But that’s not what the Obama administration intended. Now you know why it used the deceptive graphs.

E. Calvin Beisner, Ph.D., is Founder and National Spokesman of the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation. J.C. Keister, Jr., Ph.D., is a retired research physicist and mathematics professor and a contributing writer for the Cornwall Alliance.

TOPICS: Conspiracy; Science; Weather
KEYWORDS: antarctic; antarctica; climatechange; globalwarminghoax; globawarming; greenland
first 1-2021-24 next last

1 posted on 07/06/2014 7:41:36 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

ice, ice baby (word to your mother)

2 posted on 07/06/2014 7:48:40 PM PDT by chajin ("There is no other name under heaven given among people by which we must be saved." Acts 4:12)

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

The liberals can’t control you if you are informed about the truth.

3 posted on 07/06/2014 7:53:00 PM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Haven't you lost enough freedoms? Support an end to the WOD now.)

Thanks Ernest.

4 posted on 07/06/2014 7:55:06 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
And then too, maybe globul warming will take out these scientist as well. And also for your perusal and enjoyment:

The Washington Post

The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consulafft, at Bergen, Norway.

Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes.

Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by mountains of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.

Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds. Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coastal cities uninhabitable.

* * * * * * * * *

P. S. - I apologize, I neglected to mention that this report was from November 2, 1922, as reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post; 93+ years ago.

5 posted on 07/06/2014 8:00:51 PM PDT by SkyDancer (If you don't read the newspapers you are uninformed. If you do read newspapers you are misinformed)

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Also... what is going on ELSEWHERE with ice? As these areas lose ice, is something else gaining?

6 posted on 07/06/2014 8:02:23 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (Embrace the Lion of Judah and He will roar for you and teach you to roar too. See my page.)

To: SunkenCiv; Ernest_at_the_Beach

August 2013. I've probably got something a little more up to date squirrelled away somewhere, but this'll do for now.

7 posted on 07/06/2014 8:22:44 PM PDT by Fred Nerks (Bapac Subud,)

To: SkyDancer; SunkenCiv; Tolerance Sucks Rocks; Fred Nerks; NormsRevenge; Marine_Uncle; BenLurkin; ...

GReat thanks for posting this.,

8 posted on 07/06/2014 8:28:55 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

To: SkyDancer; All
Other historic gems:

• January 10, 1871: Pall Mall Gazette – “Imaginary Change of Climate”
“…a plentiful crop of speculation from weather prophets and projectors, and half-
instructed meteorologists…We have often noticed…every season is sure to be
‘extraordinary,’ almost every month one of the driest or wettest, or windiest, coldest
or hottest ever known
. Much observation, which ought to correct a tendency to
exaggerate, seems in some minds to have rather a tendency to increase it.”

• 1902: Los Angeles Times
Glaciers are undergoing ‘their final annihilation’ due to warming.

• 1923: Chicago Tribune (Front page)
“Scientist says Arctic ice will wipe out Canada”

• May 15, 1932: New York Times (Special supplement May)
Continuing end of the last ice age, not human activity cause of warming trend.
Melting Polar Ice Caps to Raise the Level of Seas and Flood the Continents

• May 23, 1969: New York Times
“Worrying About a New Ice Age.”

• April 22, 1970 (Lenin’s birthday): First Earth Day event presentation
George Wald, Harvard Biologist –
“Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against
problems facing mankind.”

• 1970’s: Science, Science Digest, Newsweek, etc.
Global cooling – ice age.

• June 24, 1974: Time
“Another Ice Age?”

• June 30, 1989: San Jose Mercury News
Noel Brown, senior UN environment official –
Entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if
global warming is not reversed by 2000.

• 1997:
U.S. Senate voted 95-0 that the U.S. should not sign on to the Kyoto protocols.

• 2006:
Al Gore [alleged climate expert and Grand Klimatologist of the Klimate Klux Klan] –
10 years to solve the global-warming problem.

• 2007:
Chief of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) –
“If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late.”

• December 2008:
Al Gore [alleged climate expert and Grand Klimatologist of the Klimate Klux Klan] tells German audience –
“…the entire North ‘polarized’ cap will disappear in 5 years.”

• January 19, 2009:
James Hansen, [alleged] climate expert and past head of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies –
President Obama has only four years to save the Earth.

• December 2009:
Al Gore [alleged climate expert and Grand Klimatologist of the Klimate Klux Klan] @ Copenhagen UN climate summit –
75% chance Arctic Ocean ice-free in several years.

• November 10, 2013: Mother Jones article –
“Climate deniers like to point to the so-called global warming ‘hiatus’ [17 years without warming].”
Note: In the article below, the IPCC omits this fact!

• April 13, 2014:USA Today
(IPCC states), “…global emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases have accelerated to unprecedented levels…”
But, here is reality!!

Global warming computer models confounded as Antarctic sea ice hits new record high with 2.1million square miles more than is usual for time of year

9 posted on 07/06/2014 8:58:18 PM PDT by QT3.14 (This post used 100% eco-friendly recycled IRS hard-drive space - No electrons harmed during transmit)

To: QT3.14; SkyDancer; SunkenCiv; Tolerance Sucks Rocks; Fred Nerks; NormsRevenge; Marine_Uncle; ...
Thanks----

that is Hugely useful.

10 posted on 07/06/2014 9:24:07 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

To: QT3.14
Cooling warming cooling warming cooling warming ... seems like a cycle, huh.

11 posted on 07/06/2014 9:24:47 PM PDT by SkyDancer (If you don't read the newspapers you are uninformed. If you do read newspapers you are misinformed)

To: Fred Nerks
Ahhh!!

Good stuff!

920,000 sq miles in one year...wow

12 posted on 07/06/2014 9:28:07 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

In statistics I was taught it was a course in how to lie with figures and how to make figures lie.

If you want to tell a big lie, use a graph!

13 posted on 07/06/2014 9:41:07 PM PDT by dalereed

To: dalereed

LOL!

14 posted on 07/06/2014 9:52:24 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
that's the statement that was on the black board the first day of the class.

There was also one that followed, “anyone using the word statistics in this class will receive an F”

15 posted on 07/06/2014 10:33:05 PM PDT by dalereed

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

OK!! Everybody pay attention!

Lesson for today:

1. The sun is 1,300,000 times as big as the earth.

2. The sun is a ball of fire that controls the climates of all its planets.

3. The earth is one of the sun’s planets.

4. The earth is a speck in comparison to the size of the sun.

5. Inhabitants of the earth are less than specks.

Study Question: How do less-than-specks in congress plan to control the sun

16 posted on 07/07/2014 3:33:47 AM PDT by abclily

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
"Lies, damned lies and statistics"

- Attributed to former British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli.
The phrase is commonly used to doubt statistics given to support government positions.

17 posted on 07/07/2014 4:12:54 AM PDT by BitWielder1 (Corporate Profits are better than Government Waste)

To: Fred Nerks

source?

18 posted on 07/07/2014 4:22:45 AM PDT by silverleaf (Age takes a toll: Please have exact change)

To: silverleaf

BE MY GUEST:

DAILY MAIL AUSTRALIA

And now it’s global COOLING! Return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 29% in a year
533,000 more square miles of ocean covered with ice than in 2012
BBC reported in 2007 global warming would leave Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013
Publication of UN climate change report suggesting global warming caused by humans pushed back to later this month

By David Rose

Published: 09:37 AEST, 8 September 2013 | Updated: 04:45 AEST, 29 September 2013

HOW NSIDC GOT ITS FIGURES WRONG AND THEN KEPT QUIET

Since publication of the original version of this article, the US source of the figures – the NASA-funded National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) - was discovered to have made a huge error and then quietly corrected the figure without mentioning it.

On September 4, NSIDC, based at the University of Colorado, stated on its website that in August 2013 the Arctic ice cover recovered by a record 2.38 million sq km – 919,000 sq miles – from its 2012 low.

News of this figure was widely reported – including by Mailonline - on September 8. But on September 10, the NSIDC quietly changed it to 1.38 million sq km (533,000 sq miles) – and replaced the original document so the old figure no longer shows up on a main Google search. It can now only be found on an old ‘cached’ page.

Prompted by an inquiry from ‘green’ blogger Bob Ward, the NSIDC’s spokeswoman Natasha Vizcarra said the mistake was a ‘typographical error’, telling him: ‘There are no plans to make a statement on the change because it was not an error in the data.’
.

19 posted on 07/07/2014 4:49:49 AM PDT by Fred Nerks (Bapac Subud,)

To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3176766/posts?page=19#19

MAKE THAT 533,000 SQUARE MILES...

20 posted on 07/07/2014 4:54:11 AM PDT by Fred Nerks (Bapac Subud,)