Skip to comments.Lying with Statistics: The National Climate Assessment Falsely Hypes Ice Loss ...
Posted on 07/06/2014 7:41:36 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Lying with Statistics: The National Climate Assessment Falsely Hypes Ice Loss in Greenland and Antarctica
by E. Calvin Beisner and J.C. Keister
How fast are Greenland and Antarctica losing ice?
If you trust the National Climate Assessment (NCA), youll think, Very fast! And thats intentional. The aim is to provoke fear so the American public will support the Obama administrations aim to spend $Trillions fighting global warming.
Heres how the NCA (in Appendix 4, FAQ-L) depicts the rate of loss from the ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica:
Pretty steep declines, right? Downright scary.
But if theres any way to depict trends guaranteed to be misleading, its depicting them in raw numbers without the context of proportion. The NCA should either have depicted the ice loss as percentwith graphs showing the whole span from 0 to 100or as gigatons but spanning from 0 to the highest totals for the two locations.
What would the resulting graphs look like? To know that, you have to know the total mass of ice in both Greenland and Antarctica and the annual rate of loss. Neither is known very precisely, but working from widely accepted figures we ran the calculations. The results?
Greenland is losing about 0.1% of its ice per decadethat is, about 0.01% per year. At that rate, it will take a century for it to lose 1%.
Antarctica is losing about 0.0045% of its ice per decadeabout 4.5/10,000ths of a percent per year. At that rate, it will take about 2,200 years for it to lose 1%.
Ohand what would the graphs look like if drawn proportionally? Here you go:
No, the trend lines arent missing. Theyre the red lines up at the 100% level of the graphs. Their slopes are so shallow that Greenlands is barely perceptibleand Antarcticas, not at all.
And the effect on sea level? Combined, about 1 millimeter per yearor about 3.3 inches by the end of this century.
Not quite so scared now?
But thats not what the Obama administration intended. Now you know why it used the deceptive graphs.
E. Calvin Beisner, Ph.D., is Founder and National Spokesman of the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation. J.C. Keister, Jr., Ph.D., is a retired research physicist and mathematics professor and a contributing writer for the Cornwall Alliance.
ice, ice baby (word to your mother)
The liberals can’t control you if you are informed about the truth.
The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consulafft, at Bergen, Norway.
Reports from fishermen, seal hunters, and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes.
Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by mountains of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.
Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds. Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coastal cities uninhabitable.
P. S. - I apologize, I neglected to mention that this report was from November 2, 1922, as reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post; 93+ years ago.
Also... what is going on ELSEWHERE with ice? As these areas lose ice, is something else gaining?
August 2013. I've probably got something a little more up to date squirrelled away somewhere, but this'll do for now.
GReat thanks for posting this.,
that is Hugely useful.
920,000 sq miles in one year...wow
In statistics I was taught it was a course in how to lie with figures and how to make figures lie.
If you want to tell a big lie, use a graph!
There was also one that followed, “anyone using the word statistics in this class will receive an F”
OK!! Everybody pay attention!
Lesson for today:
1. The sun is 1,300,000 times as big as the earth.
2. The sun is a ball of fire that controls the climates of all its planets.
3. The earth is one of the suns planets.
4. The earth is a speck in comparison to the size of the sun.
5. Inhabitants of the earth are less than specks.
Study Question: How do less-than-specks in congress plan to control the sun
BE MY GUEST:
DAILY MAIL AUSTRALIA
And now it’s global COOLING! Return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 29% in a year
533,000 more square miles of ocean covered with ice than in 2012
BBC reported in 2007 global warming would leave Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013
Publication of UN climate change report suggesting global warming caused by humans pushed back to later this month
By David Rose
Published: 09:37 AEST, 8 September 2013 | Updated: 04:45 AEST, 29 September 2013
HOW NSIDC GOT ITS FIGURES WRONG AND THEN KEPT QUIET
Since publication of the original version of this article, the US source of the figures the NASA-funded National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) - was discovered to have made a huge error and then quietly corrected the figure without mentioning it.
On September 4, NSIDC, based at the University of Colorado, stated on its website that in August 2013 the Arctic ice cover recovered by a record 2.38 million sq km 919,000 sq miles from its 2012 low.
News of this figure was widely reported including by Mailonline - on September 8. But on September 10, the NSIDC quietly changed it to 1.38 million sq km (533,000 sq miles) and replaced the original document so the old figure no longer shows up on a main Google search. It can now only be found on an old cached page.
The figures in this article have now been corrected.
Prompted by an inquiry from green blogger Bob Ward, the NSIDCs spokeswoman Natasha Vizcarra said the mistake was a typographical error, telling him: There are no plans to make a statement on the change because it was not an error in the data.
MAKE THAT 533,000 SQUARE MILES...
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