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We’re heading into a jobless future, no matter what the government does
Washington Post ^ | July 21, 2014 | Vivek Wadhwa

Posted on 07/23/2014 11:33:45 AM PDT by C19fan

In an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers revived a debate I’d had with futurist Ray Kurzweil in 2012 about the jobless future.

He echoed the words of Peter Diamandis, who says that we are moving from a history of scarcity to an era of abundance. Then he noted that the technologies that make such abundance possible are allowing production of far more output using far fewer people.

On all this, Summers is right. Within two decades, we will have almost unlimited energy, food, and clean water; advances in medicine will allow us to live longer and healthier lives; robots will drive our cars, manufacture our goods, and do our chores.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Education; History; Society
KEYWORDS: automation; future; robots
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Another futurist claiming most of the current workforce will not be needed as automation will take care of that. His future is straight out of Roddenberry's Star Trek. No need to work to make money so everybody just explores their interests. Just keep in mind the Industrial Revolution was one of man's greatest achievements but that change was devastating. The Luddites were in a sense right. The machines turned what was once skilled labor into low skill factory jobs with low wages to match. Because of the Industrial Revolution millions of British and Europeans immigrated overseas during the 19th century. British for the first half or 3/4 of the 19th century got shorter. It took fifty to 75 years for the benefits to trickle down to the masses in the form of higher wages and living standards; just in time to prove Marx wrong. I do not see why the same thing will happen here. Decades of change that will throw older workers into turmoil, we are already seeing this, but generations in the future might be celebrating the final outcome.
1 posted on 07/23/2014 11:33:45 AM PDT by C19fan
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To: C19fan

The government CAN do something.

In addition to repealing Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, Sarbanes-Oxley, and reining in out of control agencies such as the EPA and permitting more oil and gas drilling, the Federal Government could create tens of millions of private sector jobs by lowering or better yet completely abolishing corporate income taxes.


2 posted on 07/23/2014 11:38:08 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: C19fan

In before, ‘bring jobs back now. Just sayin.’.’


3 posted on 07/23/2014 11:38:12 AM PDT by deadrock (I am someone else.)
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To: C19fan

These futurists are nuts. I see the fall of Rome, they see Star Trek.
Our absolute reliance on technology and electricity has made our society more vulnerable to destruction than any in history. Just look at what the simple breakdown of roads did to Europe after Rome. Think of a world where electricity stopped overnight.


4 posted on 07/23/2014 11:39:28 AM PDT by Viennacon (Rebuke the Repuke!)
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To: deadrock

I’ll say “bring jobs back now, Just sayin”.

The new apple (6 I believe) is ramping up for production.

Millions are due to be produced.

In China.


5 posted on 07/23/2014 11:40:11 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
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To: C19fan

Check my tagline.


6 posted on 07/23/2014 11:41:10 AM PDT by Steely Tom (How do you feel about robbing Peter's robot?)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

Throughout all of human history, there have been jobs and tasks for the people. Without that, I guarantee mass murder, even if every need is catered to. Humans need to work, to have purpose in society.


7 posted on 07/23/2014 11:42:22 AM PDT by Viennacon (Rebuke the Repuke!)
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To: C19fan
B.S.

I hope there's enough people around who know that

1) the first step to our future is cutting the poverty-creating $4 trillion government spending and taxes by at least 80% and get them out of meddling with our economic and commercial affairs.

2) the next step that naturally flows from small government is the rise of the wealth-creating free market economy that has always been the basis of our superior standard of living for the average person.

The key is cutting government. As Reagan once said (a truth that has not nor will ever change), "Government isn't the solution, government is the problem."

8 posted on 07/23/2014 11:42:23 AM PDT by PapaNew (Freedom always wins the debate in the forum of ideas)
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To: C19fan

The more I read these articles and see what is happening in the U.S., the more I think Kurt Vonnegut’s “Player Piano” was prophetic.


9 posted on 07/23/2014 11:44:54 AM PDT by Opinionated Blowhard ("When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.")
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To: C19fan

I completely agree. All the jobs will be taken by all the illegal aliens.


10 posted on 07/23/2014 11:46:01 AM PDT by Vinylly (?%)
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To: C19fan
On all this, Summers is right. Within two decades, we will have almost unlimited energy, food, and clean water; advances in medicine will allow us to live longer and healthier lives; robots will drive our cars, manufacture our goods, and do our chores.

Not unless the EPA,NSA, IRS, DEA, NLRB and almost all of the other government alphabet agencies are defunded and consigned to the oblivion they deserve. JMHO!

11 posted on 07/23/2014 11:46:47 AM PDT by Don Corleone ("Oil the gun..eat the cannoli. Take it to the Mattress.")
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Comment #12 Removed by Moderator

To: C19fan
The machines turned what was once skilled labor into low skill factory jobs with low wages to match.

The machines also turned unskilled labor into skilled labor with higher wages to match.

Obama blamed the loss of jobs on machines like ATMs replacing bank tellers. So who designs and makes the ATM machines? Increased automation actually creates the need for more skilled workers and less need for the unskilled. Our highest unemployment levels are for those having the least education.


13 posted on 07/23/2014 11:59:31 AM PDT by kabar
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

The problem with making the iPhone here in the US is that it would cost several times as much to make and it would price out most consumers. Few would pay $1200 for it. In addition to considering our trade policies we have to realistically look at how to make labor cheaper here. Not by lowering wages but all the associated costs with hiring and operating a business here.

The case for overseas manufacturing and labor is too strong right now. If I needed a team of programmers I would have to look at India as an option.


14 posted on 07/23/2014 12:05:16 PM PDT by ilgipper
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To: deadrock

one minute fifty nine seconds


15 posted on 07/23/2014 12:05:53 PM PDT by Mr. Peabody
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To: Mr. Peabody

A new personal best.


16 posted on 07/23/2014 12:09:00 PM PDT by deadrock (I am someone else.)
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To: ilgipper

Don’t bring facts to the table. It confuses trolls.


17 posted on 07/23/2014 12:10:29 PM PDT by deadrock (I am someone else.)
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To: ilgipper

All I am saying is, currently we have destroyed millions of American jobs, sent those jobs to China, where the factories were re-assembled, and now all of those jobs are in China.

This is not a success story.

America is losing. This is not just about Apple.

We are running a MASSIVE trade deficit with China.

Massive.


18 posted on 07/23/2014 12:12:07 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
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To: C19fan

You can do two types of work: work with your hands, or work with your brain.

The Industrial Revolution removed many of the first kind of work.

The Information Revolution is taking care of the second.

So what’s next? What jobs are there going to be for the simpletons of the world to do? And when they are idle, well we know what they say about idle hands.


19 posted on 07/23/2014 12:13:10 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: ilgipper

“If I needed a team of programmers I would have to look at India as an option.”

I wouldn’t. They charge only half of what the US charges and take 4 times as long to do 1/10th the quality of work.

“Ve r viry solly. Dat is not in da requirements.”


20 posted on 07/23/2014 12:14:12 PM PDT by CodeToad (Arm Up! They Are!)
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

I noticed an ad on tv the other night trying to lure companies to New York and their offer was no taxes for 10 years (i’m sure there were loopholes in there...). I mentioned to my husband how interesting it was that such a Commie state was shouting we need to pay higher taxes, while advertising the lure of lower or no taxes to bring in jobs. So dems get the idea they just don’t want others to know they get it.


21 posted on 07/23/2014 12:15:49 PM PDT by WhyisaTexasgirlinPA
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To: C19fan

so why do we need more illegals here to “do the work American’s won’t do” then?


22 posted on 07/23/2014 12:15:50 PM PDT by MNDude
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To: C19fan

I think that I’m on the side of the futurists on this one: jobs for production and many services have been declining steadily. Between the unions driving up the cost of US labor, the worldwide competition in production, and our insistence on the lowest prices rather than buying American, the jobs are being automated or sent overseas or given to Latin American “migrants”. Robots don’t strike, don’t steal, don’t cost more than initial investment, maintenance, and power. They also work very precisely, removing more and more sources of error.

It’s not like we did ask for it: I remember watching my fellow workers at Lockheed steal tools and material, goof off, stretch jobs out to get overtime hours, and generally get away with everything thanks to the unions.

All of this begs the question - what are we going to do with those parts of our population who used to fill those blue collar and service jobs?

Exactly half of the population has an IQ less than 100 and what will we do with them when automation gets more firmly entrenched? Will we have to pay them off so they don’t get violent? Chances are, they’ll be violent anyway - so what do we do - make bigger prisons?


23 posted on 07/23/2014 12:16:53 PM PDT by Chainmail (A simple rule of life: if you can be blamed, you're responsible.)
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To: C19fan

there’s an area in my hometown that used to be the drive in theater back in the 1970s. By the early 1990s it was a grocery store. Then it became a different grocery store. Then wal mart came and it went out of business. Now it’s government offices. I don’t expect that to change any time soon. Should or present course continue, that’s what the economy of our future will look like imo.


24 posted on 07/23/2014 12:18:03 PM PDT by RC one (Militarized law enforcement is just a nice way of saying martial law enforcement.)
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To: Vinylly

I completely agree. All the jobs will be taken by all the illegal aliens.


Actually, the libtards with their “living wage” laws are eliminating even their jobs.

In my local Chili’s restaurant, with a $10/hour min wage law, you can order a meal and pay for it without talking with anyone. Panera is also automating their operation.

I like it. The orders are filled more accurately and faster plus no one to tip :-)


25 posted on 07/23/2014 12:21:41 PM PDT by fifedom
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To: C19fan
Within two decades, we will have almost unlimited energy, food, and clean water; advances in medicine will allow us to live longer and healthier lives; robots will drive our cars, manufacture our goods, and do our chores.

Only if we remained a free country, but it looks like most of us will live more like the tenement dwellers of the 20's NYC

26 posted on 07/23/2014 12:21:47 PM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans)
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Comment #27 Removed by Moderator

To: C19fan

Right now there is a huge shortage of skilled industrial workers, welders, machinists, etc. Largely because schools stopped teaching shop and other industrial skills, and propagandized that everyone needs to go to college. Now people are graduating from colleges with mountains of debt and can’t find decent jobs, while trade school grads are being scooped up for jobs in the high 5 figures and there aren’t enough of them.


28 posted on 07/23/2014 12:38:27 PM PDT by Hugin ("Do yourself a favor--first thing, get a firearm!")
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To: C19fan

Everything will be hunky dory until the dollar crashes and some enterprising internet genius puts the grid down. Then not so much. :-)


29 posted on 07/23/2014 1:20:22 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: Hugin

My daughter’s best friend decided college was not for her and enrolled in a trade school. Now, as a black female welder, she is in extremely high demand. And she is earning more than most of the college grads her age.

There will also always be jobs in banking and government, scheming more creative ways to steal other people’s money.


30 posted on 07/23/2014 1:50:44 PM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Buckeye McFrog

Good for her. I always wanted to learn to weld. Can’t afford squat now.


31 posted on 07/23/2014 2:42:14 PM PDT by bicyclerepair (The zombies here elected alcee hastings. TERM LIMITS ... TERM LIMITS)
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To: ScamFix

I can remember a Milton Friedman story about India. He went to a construction site and asked the foreman why the workers were using shovels when they could be using an earth-mover. The foreman responded that it permitted more people to have jobs. Friedman then asked, “Why don’t you have them use teaspoons?”


32 posted on 07/23/2014 3:23:53 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

In a lot of places it’s cheaper to hire 100 guys with shovels than to buy or rent heavy machinery, build a road and move it there, buy fuel and move it there, and run it.


33 posted on 07/23/2014 4:04:01 PM PDT by Hugin ("Do yourself a favor--first thing, get a firearm!")
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To: kabar

Interestingly enough, China has some of the highest state of the art manufacturing facilities with automation out the wazzzooooo.


34 posted on 07/23/2014 4:12:26 PM PDT by cornfedcowboy
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To: Hugin
Does that include payroll taxes, workmen's comp, etc. or are you talking about illegal aliens,

In any event, if you can do that it shows that there is a surplus of labor. If there was a shortage of labor, wages would be increasing, not decreasing.

35 posted on 07/23/2014 7:54:32 PM PDT by kabar
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To: cornfedcowboy

I have been to China and seen it. It is the reason why so many companies are relocating there. The companies use the latest technology and combine it with cheap, capable labor. It is a hard combination to beat.


36 posted on 07/23/2014 8:00:20 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

Yep. And they have the benefit of not being burdened with older facilities and methods. Many of their manufacturing plants are mostly fair new.


37 posted on 07/23/2014 8:06:38 PM PDT by cornfedcowboy
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To: Chainmail

“Survivor” meets “The Running Man” with “Call of Duty” and so forth thrown in the mix of sponsored teams. Add home participation of strategy gamers input to the narrative for mass market appeal.


38 posted on 07/23/2014 10:22:50 PM PDT by Ozark Tom
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To: kabar

The example was in India, so I’m talking about other countries. I was specifically thinking about the last season of that show Gold Rush, with the Hoffman crew spending weeks and hundreds of thousands of dollars moving heavy equipment to Guyana. Bulldozers are sinking in the mud, etc. Then they find that a bunch of guys with shovels and sluice boxes came in and cleaned the claim out in the meantime.


39 posted on 07/24/2014 2:31:39 AM PDT by Hugin ("Do yourself a favor--first thing, get a firearm!")
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To: PapaNew; PGalt
The key is cutting government. As Reagan once said (a truth that has not nor will ever change), "Government isn't the solution, government is the problem."
Yes. And the key to opposing hypertrophy of government is to recognize and promote the distinction between society and government:
http://www.ushistory.org/paine/commonsense/sense2.htm  Common Sense by Thomas Paine (1776) Of the Origin and Design of Government in General, with Concise Remarks on the English Constitution SOME writers have so confounded society with government, as to leave little or no distinction between them; whereas they are not only different, but have different origins. Society is produced by our wants, and government by our wickedness; the former promotes our happiness POSITIVELY by uniting our affections, the latter NEGATIVELY by restraining our vices. The one encourages intercourse, the other creates distinctions. The first is a patron, the last a punisher.

Society in every state is a blessing, but Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one: for when we suffer, or are exposed to the same miseries BY A GOVERNMENT, which we might expect in a country WITHOUT GOVERNMENT, our calamity is heightened by reflecting that we furnish the means by which we suffer. Government, like dress, is the badge of lost innocence; the palaces of kings are built upon the ruins of the bowers of paradise. For were the impulses of conscience clear, uniform and irresistibly obeyed, man would need no other lawgiver; but that not being the case, he finds it necessary to surrender up a part of his property to furnish means for the protection of the rest; and this he is induced to do by the same prudence which in every other case advises him, out of two evils to choose the least. Wherefore, security being the true design and end of government, it unanswerably follows that whatever form thereof appears most likely to ensure it to us, with the least expense and greatest benefit, is preferable to all others.

”You didn’t build that” is the socialist rationalization for growing the government - but although there is in fact some truth to the argument, the government “didn’t build that” either.

Society contributes to everything you do - but if you’ve got a business, you have to work to a bottom line in order to keep that business from decaying and stopping. Not government - not even society - will do that, because if it is “everyone’s" responsibility it is actually no one’s responsibility. And it simply will not get done. And still less would it have gotten done during the startup phase of the business, when everyone but you was saying your business would never pay the rent. And on average, “everyone else” was right - most business ventures fail.

So I guess you did "build that," after all . . .


40 posted on 07/24/2014 4:00:26 AM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion ("Liberalism” is a conspiracy against the public by wire-service journalism.)
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To: conservatism_IS_compassion
I don't know. I guess my starting point is the starting point of the Declaration of Independence: the individual. It is the individual that is more important than anything in the universe. The most valuable thing in Heaven and the universe, God's Son, died not for "society" but for the individual. It is individuals who "are endowed by their Creator certain unalienable Rights...among these Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness."

I believe that from a healthy respect for the rights and freedoms of the individual a happy and free society is formed - a society with minimal laws and minimal government, where individuals are ruled by self-governance, not other men. But it takes faith and bravery to live in a free society.

Like our Founders, I am not sure how long a free society can remain free without a faith in God as the moral compass of what is good and how to behave. And you also need faith to be brave. Bravery is necessary because nobody owes you anything nor has any power or right over you and you the same with them. It means we're on our own to sink or swim, but there's no one standing in your way to make the most of your opportunities.

Many people have died to live in such a society.

I also believe Jesus died to give us such a society wherein we find happiness and freedom. It looks like man is incapable of maintaining such a society for very long, as evidenced by the history of the world in general and the last 100 years of America in particular. But someday soon, He personally will arrive to create and himself rule such a society for 1000 years and beyond. I can't wait.

(A word of warning: even sooner, there will be a counterfeit world ruler who will come before Jesus comes and will crush many with his oppression and many will be fooled by him. But God will protect those who have received Jesus Christ from this "anti-Christ." If you haven't received Jesus as your Savior, now is a great time to do so.)

:-)

41 posted on 07/24/2014 9:10:04 AM PDT by PapaNew (Freedom always wins the debate in the forum of ideas)
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To: PapaNew
Our rights come from God, else there were no such thing as a “right.”

Even though the Constitution is a nominally secular document, it concludes with a reference

in the Year of our Lord one thousand seven hundred and Eighty seven and of the Independence of the United States of America the Twelfth
to Jesus Christ. It is right to praise His name.
But my point in the previous post related to arguments which the benighted cannot refute, even by their own standards. They put their faith in government, and their faith is misplaced - because the government is not God, the government is only people.

And people fail. Specifically, society itself fails, if government separates responsibility from authority by “transcending” private rights to property.


42 posted on 07/24/2014 11:53:23 AM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion ("Liberalism” is a conspiracy against the public by wire-service journalism.)
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To: conservatism_IS_compassion
More simply for me, society fails when it puts equality ahead of freedom and when it puts the rule of man over the rule of law (in our case, the Constitution).

Yes, although I agree that I believe our unalienable rights truly derive from God Himself, it is conceivable for people to think that our "rights" have a different source.

In America, the assertions of the Declaration of Independence were ratified by the Constitution because in the original body of the Constitution, only government powers, not individual "rights", were enumerated. The so-called "bill of rights" were not an enumeration, but rather a sampling of rights as the Ninth and Tenth Amendment clearly state. Whatever powers are not expressly enumerated and delegated by the Constitution to government belong to the states and the people. We the People are born with God-given unalienable rights and we the people delegate some of that power to government to protect our rights and freedoms.

But in the 20th Century, the beginning of the end, IMO, the Progressive Socialists have twisted the Constitution to mean that the federal government via SCOTUS may now interpret the Constitution as it sees fit in deciding our "rights". They've effectively rewritten the U.S. Constitution to be similar to the Russian communist constitution which names a million rights. So the progressives, like the communists, now think government power is the default and the power is theirs if not specifically forbidden by some Constitutional interpretation and in turn and by the same methods, government is what gives or denies our rights and freedoms.

43 posted on 07/24/2014 12:29:57 PM PDT by PapaNew (Freedom always wins the debate in the forum of ideas)
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To: conservatism_IS_compassion; PapaNew; All
Thanks for the ping, c_I_c (scrolling back through the pings…I meant to read this some time ago). Great conversation (you & PapaNew) in a fascinating thread. Thanks to all posters.

socialist rationalization

Tremendous discernment of an evil parasite attacking and feeding off other's individual accomplishment. (POSOTUS/socialists/totalitarians are wicked)

44 posted on 08/01/2014 9:06:25 PM PDT by PGalt
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To: Cringing Negativism Network; ilgipper
MASSIVE trade deficit

Sounds so ominous..."trade deficit".

I'm not sure many who try to use "trade deficit" as a scare tactic against free trade and for higher tariffs really get what a "trade deficit" is.

Everybody runs their household with a "trade deficit" which simply means you bring in more goods than you send out. Nothing wrong with that.

What about Hong Kong, a tiny little nothing on the edge of a tiny little rocky peninsula? Do they run "trade deficits"? Of course - they have no natural resources. Then why is it a place that creates such wealth? Because government interference with the economy was taken out of the way and the free market economy and free trade did what it does best: create wealth.

The issue is exactly what Reagan said it was: government interference in the free market isn't the solution, it is the problem.

45 posted on 08/02/2014 8:53:05 AM PDT by PapaNew (The grace of God & freedom always win the debate over unjust law & government in the forum of ideas)
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To: PapaNew

Last year America bought 440 billion or so, from China.

Last year China bought just 122 billion or so, from America.

Our bilateral trade deficit, is massive. 318 billion or so, every single year.

America needs to bring back American businesses.


46 posted on 08/02/2014 8:57:34 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
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To: kabar; Hugin
surplus of labor

Right, and in a free market without government interference, you would have lower wages, lower costs, and lower prices for the consumer. Supply and demand would drive prices lower so peole could buy more for less. Always a good thing.

47 posted on 08/02/2014 9:03:26 AM PDT by PapaNew (The grace of God & freedom always win the debate over unjust law & government in the forum of ideas)
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To: PapaNew
Right, and in a free market without government interference, you would have lower wages, lower costs, and lower prices for the consumer. Supply and demand would drive prices lower so peole could buy more for less. Always a good thing.

We live in a welfare state. We have 70 million on Medicaid and 47 million receiving food stamps. Government at all levels spends over a trillion dollars a year on means tested welfare programs.

We have the lowest labor participation rates since 1978. All employment growth went to immigrants since 2000 and the number of U.S.-born not working grew by 17 million .

This surplus of labor is being fueled primarily by legal immigration. We bring in 1.1 million legal permanent immigrants a year, many of whom are poor and uneducated. They take American jobs, depress wages, and use the welfare system to a greater extent than the native born. They are being subsidized by the taxpayer for education (K-12), healthcare, and incarceration.

Consumers need money to buy goods and services. More people on welfare and lower paying jobs don't create wealth except for the very few, who privatize profits and socialize the costs. You need to look at the total costs to the country, just not at the costs of consumer goods.

48 posted on 08/02/2014 9:37:42 AM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

I think (and hope) you’re arguing for less government (MUCH less I hope). That is what I am arguing for. Government is the problem, not the solution. The free market is not the problem, it IS the solution.


49 posted on 08/02/2014 2:11:59 PM PDT by PapaNew (The grace of God & freedom always win the debate over unjust law & government in the forum of ideas)
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50 posted on 08/02/2014 2:13:03 PM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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