A question about vaccines, current world population

[AppyPappy]

Two of my cousins had polio. They caught it in a wading pool.

[Sioux-san]

I agree with you 100% - no mandatory vaccines period. I have suffered that already at the hands of my former employer regarding the flu - Never again - I may have to suffer involuntary quarantine at some point, once the Police State of America is in full gear, but so be it.

[Dalek]

You really think that India, Africa, South America, and China have vaccination rates any where near "herd immunity" percentages?

Yes, given that vaccination is a cheap one-time (or two or three times at most) treatment that stops epidemic disease in its tracks. It's a natural first step while the much slower processes of building infrastructure for clean water and agricultural production is brought online.

[Dalek]

For those who had friends crippled by polio it’s more than theory.

Now that couple generations have come and gone, anti-vaccine idiocy has a chance to take root among people who for the most part have never seen people killed or permanently injured by once-epidemic diseases like polio, measles, pertussis, etc.

[Dalek]

The only problem I see is the spread of illegals coming across the border. Many of these children aren’t vaccinated

Actually, it turns out that most of the countries south of the border have better vaccination rates than the US -- they don't have a population of granola-brain dimwits who trust Dr Google instead of competent medical professionals.

[plain talk]

Interesting points. The US do have a lot of proud intellectuals. :-) I looked up the results and US does have higher measles vaccination rates than Mexico and Guatemala but only by a small amount which surprised me. Thanks for the insights.

[Pelham]

The current generation of young parents never saw what polio does and so they don’t fear it, nor appreciate vaccination like we do.

In fact they grew up at a time when vaccination and herd immunity spared them from most of the diseases that their ‘Boomer parents caught.

So they think that this is normal and that nature is benign.

Unfortunately their kids may pay the price for this.

We once had a poster here by the name of Mother Abigail who was a retired CDC scientist. She seemed resigned to the idea that we are due for a near extinction event caused by a mutation in one of the germs she hunted... flu or HIV or maybe a combination of both if I recall accurately.

Certainly a widespread indifference to vaccination will make Mother’s prediction more likely.

[stig]

Measles has caused five million deaths, most all of those prior to the introduction of the measles vaccine. Since the introduction of measles vaccine, the world’s population has doubled. It would not be a stretch to determine that the measles vaccine has saved millions of lives.

This is a stretch. Measles kills in third world undernourished populations. These places don't need vaccine they need food. Vitamin A deficiency has been implicated in many of these measles deaths.

Third World population growth has gone on unabated with India and China with a billion people each. Those countries are no where near the vaccination rates of the US and Europe.

The selling point of vaccines is that you avoid the Morbidity associated with these diseases. The theory goes get the vaccine and avoid measles encephalopathy.

A quick look at Amish population growth shows a typical exponential curve from 1900 to 2000.

With all that said the typical population response to measles deaths would be to have more children. So it would be difficult to say if measles would have any effect on slowing population growth. Certainly if wanted to make odd ball comparisons more children have been taken out of the population by abortion than have ever been taken out by contracting measles (the US 57 million cumulative since 1973).

[Oliviaforever]

At 0.5% population growth, it would be a stretch to claim that the population has grown unabated.

As for Vaccination Rates, China is at. 99% while the US is around 92%.

Without question, nutrition is important, but vaccinations and herd immunity saves livers. Obviously, the people that are vaccinated die of something, but it does save lives.

[stig]

As for Vaccination Rates, China is at. 99% while the US is around 92%.

South China Morning Post July 2014:
In Beijing, more than 92 per cent of permanent residents' children have had shots, but in some areas of the capital with a high proportion of migrant workers, the rate is only 54.7 per cent.

That's not even taking into account who manufactures China's vaccines. But I doubt that these are American Vaccines being shipped into China.

The point is the vaccination rates for wealthy people are high but huge swaths of poor are under-vaccinated, living in poor conditions, and yet not dying and the population increases none the less.

I think we are probably arguing the same point from different perspectives. Population is poor measure of vaccine efficacy and leaves us back to the real issue: freedom to choose to be vaccinated or Government forced vaccination. I'm pretty much against the government forced one.