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How To Shut Someone Up The Next Time They Blame The Brutal Winter For The Economic Collapse
Zero Hedge ^ | 04/10/2015 | Tyler Durden

Posted on 04/10/2015 8:01:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

In a note today, Bank of America economists (after looking at weather data) admit their finding "puts us in an awkward spot today." What did it find? Namely that all those who reran that 2014 playbook, Ethan Harris and other Bank of America economists included, and decided to blame the weather for Q1 GDP crashing from over 3% to under 1%, are wrong or simply lying.

Here is BofA:

Is weather the main reason for recent weak economic data? While we would love to blame the weather for all of our bad forecasts, in reality it is hard to pin down  weather effects. A recent paper from the Chicago Fed—“The effect of winter weather on U.S. economic activity”—is the best attempt we have seen in recent years. They look at detailed data on snowfall and temperature by state and for the nation as a whole. The results show that weather effects can have a significant impact on local employment and housing activity, however, when you add it up for the nation it becomes very hard to quantify. Looking back at the very severe winter of 2013-14 they find that bad weather can only explain part of the weakness at the start of the year.

 

This puts us in an awkward spot today. There is a bit of an urban legend that weather can explain all of the weakness in the first quarter of last year and hence could explain all the weakness today. However, hindsight is always 20-20. In real time, the slowdown last year was a major surprise to economists even though we get data on the weather before we get data on the economy. Moreover, this winter is not nearly as bad as last winter—last year we had three bad months, this year only February was unusually bad (Chart 1). Economic fundamentals point to stronger growth ahead, and that remains our forecast. However, we can’t completely explain the recent weakness and hence there is a risk that growth does not pick up.

So the next time anyone, not just the Fed's Lacker or DB's house comedian Joe LaVorgna, but any other economissed spouts the first thing that comes into their mind to "explain" the economy's unwillingness to grow as per some goalseeked spreadsheet, just show them this chart which shows that three of the four months this winter were warmer than normal, and just put them on mute.



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Weather
KEYWORDS: economy; winter

1 posted on 04/10/2015 8:01:58 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
The next time?

This is the first time I've ever heard of it.

2 posted on 04/10/2015 8:06:33 AM PDT by knarf
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To: SeekAndFind

Poor Obama, the party of No brought off by the Koch Brothers stopped him from ending Global Warming which is now causing brutally Cold winters.

No other President in the past ever had to deal with the Global Warming induced cold winters we have now


3 posted on 04/10/2015 8:07:13 AM PDT by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: SeekAndFind
However, that article didn't mentioned that essentially most of New England had an unusually brutal winter--eastern Massachusetts got essentially two years' worth of normal snowfall in only a few months. I'll watch the employment and GDP numbers in April 2015 for a way better gauge of the economy.
4 posted on 04/10/2015 8:10:26 AM PDT by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: SeekAndFind
The crashing economy is being blamed on snow, because it's never snowed before in the U.S. And it's the heat from global warming that's causing all the freezing.

Dear Freepers,
It makes sense to me.
Signed, your average democrat voter.

5 posted on 04/10/2015 8:26:21 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
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To: RayChuang88

stop being reasonable.

There’s a gigantic conspiracy to cook the economic books and you know it. In reality we are in the midst of a great depression, and anyone who thinks their belly is full is hallucinating.


6 posted on 04/10/2015 8:33:36 AM PDT by babble-on
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To: SeekAndFind
FYI.....

The Money Printing Festival Keeps Getting Crazier (Urban Survival.com)

"The real deal is that the Fed is not gong to raise rates. For the past several years they have been saying a rate hike is just six months off. but see how it never happens? It CAN’T happen.

The reason the fed will NEVER be able to raise rates is the instant they do, the whole compounded national debt balloon will pop and America will be bankrupt on the spot.

So they really have driven us into a box canyon and there’s no way for the herd to get out…

So yes, that IS (take it to the bank) the hard reality that no one seems to be wanting to talk about."

7 posted on 04/10/2015 8:34:02 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
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To: knarf

I have only heard this for like the past 6 winters from the media. Hmmm...


8 posted on 04/10/2015 8:34:30 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: SeekAndFind

They want it both ways. One side of their mouth tells us that the weather was so warm that we have to amend our ways, then the side tells us that the weather was so cold that it explains poor economic data. Which is it?


9 posted on 04/10/2015 8:36:55 AM PDT by fhayek
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To: fhayek
They want it both ways. One side of their mouth tells us that the weather was so warm that we have to amend our ways, then the side tells us that the weather was so cold that it explains poor economic data. Which is it?

Uh...you're breaking the rules. You're not suppose to be smart enough to notice that. And you're definitely not suppose to be talking about that to other people.
What are you? Some kind of ignorant, coming ice.....er....global war.....uh.....climate change denier?


10 posted on 04/10/2015 8:46:36 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal")
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To: fhayek
Which is it?

Both of course.
Whether the temperature goes up or down, it's still OUR FAULT.
The only way to fix it is to redistribute the wealth.
How that is supposed to work is a bit unclear but it's worked so well before for other problems so we have to try it again. /s

The Left wants to apply same solution for every problem, whether it's a problem or not.

11 posted on 04/10/2015 9:04:42 AM PDT by BitWielder1 (Corporate Profits are better than Government Waste)
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To: KC_Conspirator
The brutal winter caused the economic collapse ?

I'm obviously not in that loop

12 posted on 04/10/2015 9:05:53 AM PDT by knarf
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To: babble-on
I think the big issue here is that we have a very uneven recovery. While the financial and technology sectors have done very well, most other sectors aren't doing as well, unlike the broad-based recovery of the first half of the 1980's.
13 posted on 04/10/2015 9:35:58 AM PDT by RayChuang88 (FairTax: America's economic cure)
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To: knarf

The 1970s saw worse winters, higher inflation, higher energy prices and relatively similar unemployment levels - and we didn’t collapse then.


14 posted on 04/10/2015 11:26:15 AM PDT by tbw2
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To: knarf

Yes, according to the media, the bad economic numbers were “unexpected”.


15 posted on 04/10/2015 11:48:35 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: KC_Conspirator

If they’re ‘unexpected’, they are new, thus .. we cannot have a “next time ... “ ... etc.


16 posted on 04/10/2015 2:04:06 PM PDT by knarf
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To: fhayek

Please stop asking intelligent questions! Liberals will hate you!!


17 posted on 04/11/2015 12:49:21 AM PDT by entropy12 (Real function of economists is to make astrologers look respectable.)
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