India Rising? Modi’s Landmark Tax Bill Will Likely Pass, Says Eurasia

Barron's Asia Edition ^ | 23-7-15 | Shuli Ren

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China’s loss is India’s gain. International investors are pulling out of China and plowed $705 million into India since June 12, sending the Sensex Index 7% higher.

But does India have any near-term catalysts?

The buzz on Narendra Modi‘s landmark reform Goods & Taxes Bill is back.

An important panel in the Upper House of the parliament, which Modi’s political party does not have majority in, already approved the GST bill. Now Modi just needs to get this bill passed in the Upper House.

But worryingly, the monsoon session of the parliament, which opened on Tuesday and will end on August 13, is mired in petty politics again. The opposition parties managed to successfully disrupt proceedings and adjourn the sessions this entire week.

Don’t worry, this all-important reform bill will pass, according to geopolitics research firm Eurasia Group.

This is because the parliament does not need to be that productive. “Government figures reportedly believe they need only a handful of uninterrupted days of parliamentary time in order to push through key bills,” wrote analysts Sasha Riser-Kositsky and Kilbinder Dosanjh.

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When and if corruption is reduced, only then India can truly rise.